Earnings call transcript: Carmen Space Q2 2025 misses EPS forecasts

Carmen Space and Defense reported its second-quarter earnings, revealing a revenue of $115.1 million, a 35% increase year-over-year. The company fell short of earnings expectations, with an EPS of $0.05 against a forecast of $0.11, marking a surprise miss of 54.55%. Despite this, Karman Holdings Inc., Carmen’s parent company, saw its stock rise 3.3% in premarket trading, signaling a positive market reaction. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains strong financial health with a current ratio of 3.34, indicating robust liquidity. Two analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period.

Key Takeaways

• Carmen Space’s Q2 revenue increased by 35% year-over-year.
• EPS of $0.05 missed the forecast of $0.11 by 54.55%.
• Karman Holdings’ stock rose 3.3% in premarket trading.
• The company completed strategic acquisitions and expanded production capabilities.
• Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $452-$458 million.

Company Performance

Carmen Space and Defense demonstrated robust revenue growth, driven by strong demand in its core markets such as hypersonics and space launch. The company’s strategic acquisitions and expanded production capabilities have positioned it well in the competitive landscape. Despite missing EPS forecasts, the company’s performance reflects a solid year-over-year growth trajectory.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $115.1 million, up 35% year-over-year.
• Gross Profit: $47 million, a 36% increase.
• Net Income: $6.8 million, up 48%.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $35.3 million, a 29% increase.
• Adjusted EPS: $0.10 per diluted share, tripling from the previous year.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Carmen Space’s EPS of $0.05 fell short of the forecasted $0.11, resulting in a 54.55% negative surprise. This miss contrasts with the company’s historical trend of meeting or exceeding expectations and may raise concerns among investors about future earnings stability. InvestingPro analysis shows the company trading at notably high valuation multiples, with a P/E ratio of 1172.06. For deeper insights into Carmen’s valuation metrics and 15+ additional ProTips, consider exploring the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

Market Reaction

Despite the EPS miss, Karman Holdings Inc.’s stock increased by 3.3% in premarket trading, reaching $49.8. This positive movement suggests investor confidence in the company’s long-term growth prospects and strategic initiatives. InvestingPro data reveals impressive returns of over 60% in the past year, with analyst price targets ranging from $45 to $55. The stock’s strong momentum comes despite trading at premium valuations, as indicated by multiple InvestingPro metrics. Subscribers can access detailed valuation analysis and peer comparisons through the Pro Research Report.

Outlook & Guidance

Carmen Space has raised its full-year revenue guidance to $452-$458 million, representing a 32% increase year-over-year. The company maintains 100% visibility to its revenue guidance midpoint and is building a funded backlog for 2026, indicating strong future growth potential.

Executive Commentary

CEO Tony Koblinski emphasized the company’s commitment to performance and growth, stating, "Carmen is a new kind of space and defense company, engineered for performance and growth." He also highlighted Carmen’s role in enhancing national security and enabling the next-generation space economy.

Risks and Challenges

• Supply Chain Constraints: Minimal exposure to rare earth supply issues, but potential risks remain.
• Contractual Risks: 90% of contracts are fixed-price, reducing flexibility.
• Market Saturation: Increasing competition in the space and defense sectors.
• Economic Pressures: Macroeconomic factors could impact defense spending.
• Technological Advancements: Rapid innovation may require continuous investment.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about capacity utilization and the company’s ability to meet future demand. Carmen Space expressed confidence in its production capabilities and highlighted a $719 million backlog extending into 2027-2028. The company anticipates growth primarily driven by rate increases and expects modest margin improvements.

Full transcript - Karman Holdings Inc (KRMN) Q2 2025:

Regina, Conference Operator: Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Carmen Space and Defense Second Quarter Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Stephen Gitlin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Stephen Gitlin, Vice President of Investor Relations, Carmen Space and Defense: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Carmen Space and Defense’s second quarter fiscal year twenty twenty five earnings conference call. I’m Stephen Gitlin, Vice President of Investor Relations, and I’m pleased to welcome you today. Joining me on today’s call are Tony Koblinski, our Chief Executive Officer Mike Willis, our Chief Financial Officer and Jonathan Bodwein, our Chief Operating Officer. Before we begin, please note that on this call, certain information presented contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements and may contain words such as believe, anticipate, expect, estimate, intend, project, plan or words or phrases with similar meaning.

Forward looking statements are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions that involve risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors outside of our control that may cause our business strategy or actual results to differ materially from the forward looking statements. All forward looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the forward looking statements in our earnings release. Future company updates will be available via press releases. For further information on these risks, we encourage you to review the risk factors discussed in our company’s periodic reports on Form 10 k and Form 10 Q filed with the SEC and the Form eight k filed today with the SEC along with the associated earnings release and the safe harbor statement contained therein. This afternoon, we also filed our earnings release and posted an earnings presentation to our website at carmensd.com in the news and events section.

The content of this conference call contains time sensitive information that is accurate only as of today, 08/07/2025. The company undertakes no obligation to make any revision to any forward looking statements contained in our remarks today or to update them to reflect the events or circumstances occurring after this conference call. I’d also like to note that unless otherwise stated, all numbers we will be discussing today are GAAP. Our press release contains reconciliation of any non GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measure. Now I would like

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: to turn the call over to Tony. Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. On today’s call, I will provide an overview of our second quarter highlights. Then Mike Willis will review our financial performance and balance sheet strength. John Baudwine will then discuss the state of our end markets and our operational performance.

Following their remarks, I’ll return to share our strategic outlook and guidance before opening the call for your questions. I’m pleased to report another exceptional quarter marked by strong execution across all aspects of our business. Our record second quarter results continue our strong momentum since our February IPO and demonstrate the continued success of our strategy and the effective performance of our team. Shown on Slide four of our earnings presentation are the key highlights for the quarter. We posted record revenue of $115,000,000 with growth across all three of our end markets.

We set a new high for gross profit at $47,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA reached $35,000,000 another new quarterly record. And funded backlog reached an all time high of $719,000,000 giving us more than 100% visibility to the midpoint of our full year revenue guidance range. Given this strong performance, we are now raising our guidance for 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA as I will detail in a few moments. Beyond the numbers, though, we achieved several major milestones shown on slide five. We refinanced our credit facilities, saving more than $8,000,000 in annual interest expense and improving our financial flexibility.

We completed two strategic acquisitions, MTI and ISP, which deepen our capabilities and customer contacts. We were added to the Russell 1,000 and other indices. And just two weeks ago, we completed a $1,200,000,000 secondary offering that was significantly oversubscribed, increasing our public float and completing our transition to a fully independent company. Taking a broader view, the demand environment remains very favorable with more than $1,000,000,000,000 in planned DoD funding, including robust support for production and development programs we already participate in. As such, we are well positioned to drive continued growth in and beyond 2025.

Drivers for that growth include restocking activity resulting from extensive consumption of U. S. Missiles and unmanned systems in complex zones, the Golden Dome for America program and signs of growing international demand as NATO allies increase their military spending. Supporting both DoD and commercial markets, we also anticipate a continued increase in space launch cadence. With that high level overview, I’ll turn the

Mike Willis, Chief Financial Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: call over to Mike for a review of the quarter’s financial highlights. Thank you, Tony. Good afternoon, everyone. Q2 was another strong quarter that demonstrated the positive impact of our strategy and operational discipline. Shown on slide six, highlights include revenue of $115,100,000 representing a 35% increase compared to the 2024.

Gross profit grew 36% to $47,000,000 maintaining gross margins at nearly 41%. Net income rose 48% to $6,800,000 Adjusted EBITDA jumped to 35,300,000 a 29% year over year increase. Adjusted EPS more than tripled to $0.10 per diluted share. And funded backlog has grown 36% year over year and 24% since the ’24. Growth was broad based across all three of our end markets.

Shown on slide number seven, hypersonics and strategic missile defense revenue at 35,000,000 grew 22% year over year supported by programs like next generation interceptor and classified work. Space and launch jumped 39% to 39,600,000.0 driven by orders supporting increased launch cadence. And tactical missiles and integrated defense systems was up 46% to 40,500,000.0 driven by production ramps in UAS and counter UAS programs. End market revenue mix was balanced, 34% space and launch, 30% hypersonics and SMD, and 35% tactical missiles and IDS. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with 27,400,000.0 in cash and cash equivalents, up nearly 16,000,000 from the 2024.

We upsized our term loan b to $375,000,000 with 20,000,000 available on our $50,000,000 revolver. Our oversubscribed secondary offering added 24,150,000.00 shares to our public flow, improving our liquidity without issuing any new shares. This offering marks the transition to a fully independent company. Looking ahead, we continue to expect a statutory tax rate of 24% and expect CapEx to be approximately 4.5% of revenue. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Jonathan for an overview of our market position and operational highlights.

Jonathan Bodwein, Chief Operating Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Thank you, Mike. From a market standpoint, demand signals remain strong across the board. National security priorities are driving increased defense spending, while the commercial space market remains very active. The big beautiful bill signed in July provides significant funding aligned with our business, as shown on Slide eight. Dollars 25,000,000,000 for the Golden Dome for America, 5,000,000,000 for unmanned systems where we are a leader in the growing area of launch systems, 3,000,000,000 for hypersonics where we support multiple development programs and 17,000,000,000 for missiles and munitions, where we have production programs supporting most major missile systems.

The 2026 defense spending request proposes year over year funding increases for a number of programs we have been supporting for years, including funding for GBSD or the Sentinel program is growing from $2,000,000,000 to $4,100,000,000 That funding is more than doubling from $649,000,000 to $1,600,000,000 Other missile UAS and counter UAS programs stand to receive more than $2,000,000,000 The Golden Dome program is particularly exciting because we believe it will drive additional demand for production and development programs we already support, and its space layer will require a considerable number of space launches to build driving demand for the critical subsystems we supply to nearly all space launch vehicles. Turning now to our operations. We remain focused on capacity, capability and productivity. This quarter, we installed one of the most advanced vertical turning lathes available, capable of machining components up to 18 feet in diameter while keeping the extremely tight tolerances required for strategic and space launch programs. We also added an advanced five axis machining center with automated cells to produce complex parts with minimal human intervention, which will enhance our UAS launcher manufacturing.

We are also expanding our tactical missile nozzle production capacity by approximately 50% by adding more nozzle curing equipment. These investments increase throughput, enhance quality and allow us to scale without significant additional CapEx. Turning to our recent acquisitions, both MTI and ISP integrations are progressing on schedule. We’ve incorporated ISP’s energetic systems into our design processes, while MTI’s advanced forming capabilities are contributing to to key defense programs and providing us access to important new customers. We are in the process of implementing our ERP system, our business development and engineering processes, and aligning our organizational structures.

From a risk management perspective, we are structured to minimize the financial risks of tariffs in several ways. First, more than 90% of our contracts are fixed price. Second, these contracts are typically twelve to eighteen months in duration, giving us the ability to renegotiate pricing to address input price increases. Finally, we generally purchase raw materials for our programs at the very beginning, reducing our exposure to price volatility over time. And because we use very little rare earths in our operations, our throughput has not been affected by supply constraints.

In summary, any financial impact from tariffs or rare earths continues to be immaterial to Carmen. Now I’ll turn the call back to Tony for our strategic overview and outlook.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Thank you, Jonathan. Our business strategy as an IP driven, vertically integrated merchant supplier to nearly all prime contractors in The US space and defense defense market is well aligned with our growing market merchant opportunities. Our acquisitions in the second quarter have already begun yielding results, expanding our capabilities and deepening our relationships with key customers. The combined capabilities of these acquisitions, along with our existing expertise, position us uniquely to address the growing demand in hypersonics, strategic missile defense, UAS, counter UAS, and advanced space systems. Let me now turn to our outlook and updated financial guidance for the remainder of fiscal year twenty twenty five summarized on Slide nine.

Based on our strong performance in the first half of the year, the integration of MTI and ISP and continued momentum across our end markets as reflected by our growing funded backlog, we are raising and narrowing our full year guidance. We now expect full year revenue of between $452,000,000 to $458,000,000 representing a 32% increase year over year to the midpoint and non GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $138,500,000 to $141,500,000 also a 32% year over year increase to the midpoint. This guidance reflects our 100% visibility to the midpoint of our increased revenue guidance range. In response to the strong demand signals we have described, we are leaning in where we see opportunities to position ourselves to capture end market demand, including hiring key staff. Looking beyond 2025, we are already building funded backlog for 2026.

Our differentiated capabilities, strong backlog, growing pipeline and proven ability to execute reinforce our confidence in our long term growth algorithm of consistent organic growth supplemented by strategic accretive acquisitions. In closing, I’d like to thank our employees, customers and shareholders for your continued support. As we highlight on Slide 10, Carmen is a new kind of space and defense company, one that is engineered for performance and growth. We are creating long term value for all our stakeholders by helping to enhance national security and enable the next generation space economy. Now let’s open up the call for your questions.

Regina, Conference Operator: Our first question will come from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Please go ahead.

Peter Arment, Analyst, Baird: Hey, good afternoon, Tony, Mike and Jonathan. Great results.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Thank you, Peter. Tony?

Peter Arment, Analyst, Baird: Yeah. Tony, maybe if you could just update us on you’ve got 11 facilities now and you’ve got all these different growth drivers in in within your end markets and your key strategic areas. Just how how how you feel about kind of the existing capacity utilization? I know Jonathan probably would wanna weigh in, but just your ability to leverage kind of all these different growth drivers with your existing footprint today.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Yeah. Thanks for the question. We feel confident is the summary statement, and and we’ve talked before about we’ve got ample square footage as we’ve added, you know, facilities in Alabama and additional facilities in some of our existing sites. And we keep a keen eye on the demand curve there trying to stay Jonathan rattled off about three different investments among many others that will continue to bring us the capacity we need to meet the demand.

We work closely on a daily, weekly basis with our customers collaboratively in terms of understanding the demand and our need to be ready for it over the coming quarters and years. And we feel quite good that we’ll stay ahead of that curve and be ready for the demand as it continues to evolve.

Peter Arment, Analyst, Baird: Appreciate that. And then you mentioned about 2026 kind of already kind of building, your backlog. You know, what kind of insight can you give us there? It’s just that, you know, in terms of the long lead times, given the initiatives that are going on, whether it’s Golden Dome or all the restocking that needs to take place within the missile ammunitions category. How should we think about just kind of the backlog, how it gets built?

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Yes. As we indicated today, record backlog, $719,000,000. That would be for next year and some into ’27 and a little into ’28 as we think about that. We believe that we try to keep the lead times of our capacity expansion inside the lead times of the demand signals, and we’re successful in doing that. So right now, again, I wouldn’t guide you in terms of what next year looks like other than the momentum continues.

And I’d point you back to right now our focus is on executing 32% increase year over year as we just signaled.

Peter Arment, Analyst, Baird: Appreciate it. I’ll jump back in the queue. Thanks again. Nice results.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Thank you.

Regina, Conference Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Ken Herbert, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon, everybody.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Hi, Ken.

Ken Herbert, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Really nice. Yeah, Tony, really nice results. Maybe just to start off, as you look at the strong second quarter and then more importantly, I think the full year raise to the revenue guidance, can you provide any more detail if the upside is really coming from just greater pace of activity, maybe greater volume? Are you seeing sort of incremental share gains or sort of extensions on existing contracts or maybe pricing? I mean, how can we maybe parse out what looks to be a much better sort of organic growth outlook, than than we’d expected at the beginning of the year?

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Yeah. I would say, though, all of those are a factor. The the growth is predominantly, rate increases. And so you’re seeing the headlines you’re hearing from some of our customers as they’re looking to increase rates on a number of programs that we’re currently on as well as some of the development programs that have not yet hit low rate production levels. So coming from a number of factors, principally rate.

Ken Herbert, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. That’s very helpful. And as we think about the margin guidance, I think you called out as part of the second quarter preannouncement some elevated sort of onetime costs associated with being a public company. Can you just maybe walk through how we should think about maybe gross margins progressing here through, through the second half of the year and and maybe the setup into ’26? Thank you.

Mike Willis, Chief Financial Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Hey, Ken. Yeah. This is Mike.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: So I’ll I’ll give a

Mike Willis, Chief Financial Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: couple of thoughts on that. I mean, the second half of this year, we do expect to be stronger than the first half in terms of EBITDA margins. I don’t see any, you know, necessary, cliff per se, but just continued focus on operational efficiencies, strategic deployment of capital. And so for the rest of this year as well as, you know, not to get too specific, but as far as what we see moving in the future, to just have modest increases from here on out to capture what we’ve already achieved to date and then to continue to capture more efficiencies moving forward. So to get from where we were in the first half to the full year guidance, I would call it modest improvements, but well within our range.

Michael Fisher, Analyst, Evercore ISI: Great. Thanks, Mike.

Regina, Conference Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Michael Fisher, Analyst, Evercore ISI: Hey, guys. This is Michael Fisher on for Amit. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to start with wondering if can give us more of a kind of high level overview of your exposure to various drone programs. I believe you’re involved with the Switchblade, which is obviously at the higher end loitering munitions.

And so I’m wondering if you also have any exposure to some of the cheaper lower cost drones, like we’ve seen be deployed pretty effectively in Ukraine.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Yeah. We’re careful first of all, hello, Michael. And, you know, we’re careful to disclose things that are not public. Obviously, you know, it’s a known fact in terms of our support for AV in the Switchblade, our support for the Coyote and other programs. But it’s our goal mission to partner with everybody.

And so we have a number of activities going on across the spectrum of the unmanned and counter unmanned systems. We see that as a significant growth driver moving forward.

Michael Fisher, Analyst, Evercore ISI: Great. Thanks. And then I’m just curious, you guys touched on the Golden Dome and some of the space and satellite component of that. I’m wondering, do you anticipate that being something that’s, a lot of that launch volume is coming from SpaceX? Or do you think there’s going be multiple providers involved there?

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: We think without question, there’ll be multiple providers. Looking forward to the debrief coming out of the industry day that’s occurring, you know, simultaneous to this call, it’s, you know, unclassified. I’m not sure how much more we’re gonna get, but we know that positioning assets in terms of sensing, tracking, intercepting from space is an important element of this multilayer system along with a lot of the systems that we already support. So we’re looking forward to more clarity, but it means more things in space. And as we support SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Firefly, we had a good day today, as you all know.

We enjoy supporting all of those, and so we’re agnostic, as we’ve said before, as to who flies. We’ve got components on it. It will take a combination of those providers to fulfill the vision and the reality of Golden Dome.

Michael Fisher, Analyst, Evercore ISI: Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Regina, Conference Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Louie DiPalma with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Louie DiPalma, Analyst, William Blair: Tony, Mike, Jonathan and Steve, good afternoon.

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Hey, Louie. Hi

Louie DiPalma, Analyst, William Blair: there. As it relates to, the very strong increase in backlog, do you expect to maintain, your pricing perhaps even with some modest increases? And should we expect the margin expansion that has generally taken place over the past few years to continue?

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: So I think Mike just briefly touched on the margin, again, leading you to modest expansion from operational efficiency and leverage in that regard. And so 50 basis points kind of increases as we move forward. From a pricing standpoint, again, we work collaboratively with our customers. We make certain that they’re meeting their program targets. And so it’s our view that 30 plus percent EBITDA margins are strong, sustainable, and perhaps we can expand them a bit moving forward.

But we would not anticipate that the strong backlog would lead directly to increased pricing strength. We want to make certain that we work as a partner meeting their program needs as well as our margin requirements.

Louie DiPalma, Analyst, William Blair: Great. Thanks, Tony. And can you also provide some color in terms of how your recent acquisitions have been able to contribute to your your different segments and, you know, whether they have opened up the opportunity for you to increase your partnerships with your your prime platform partners and and how that’s been able to just, you know, increase your overall scope of business?

Tony Koblinski, Chief Executive Officer, Carmen Space and Defense: Yeah. With with each of MTI and ISP, they brought new capabilities as we’ve talked about. Right? Our acquisition strategy is to keep them relatively small, but strategically important building upon a pretty robust toolbox that we’ve got right now as we serve our customers, but adding to that along the way as we add these on. So MTI, you know, brought us the refractory metals experience, brought us classified space and classified programs along with new customers.

ISP brought us these, you know, multiple dozens of energetic formulations and proven expertise in small solid rocket motors that we’ve already integrated well with what we’ve got going in Muckle Teo and Skagit from an energetics and small SRM capability. So both are immediately accretive on the financial front and accretive to our capability to serve our customers with the addition of additional customers that they have brought to us that we’re already cross selling and looking for opportunities to add to what we provide to them.

Louie DiPalma, Analyst, William Blair: Great. Thanks, Tony, and thanks, everyone.

Regina, Conference Operator: And that will conclude our question and answer session. I’ll hand the call back to Steven Gitlin for any closing comments.

Stephen Gitlin, Vice President of Investor Relations, Carmen Space and Defense: Thank you all for your attention today and for your interest in Commerce, Space and Defense, An archived version of this call, all SEC filings and relevant company news can be found on our website, carmensd.com. We wish you a good day, and we look forward to updating you on our continued progress in the quarters ahead.

Regina, Conference Operator: This concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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