Earnings call transcript: Gibson Energy beats EPS forecast in Q1 2025

Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing earnings per share (EPS) expectations with an actual EPS of $0.2744 compared to the forecasted $0.2575. However, the company fell short on revenue, reporting $2.75 billion against a forecast of $2.95 billion. Following the earnings release, Gibson Energy’s stock rose by 2.46%, closing at $21.54, reflecting positive investor sentiment despite the revenue miss. The company maintains a notable 5.65% dividend yield and has consistently paid dividends for 15 consecutive years, with increases in the past five years.

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Key Takeaways

• Gibson Energy’s EPS exceeded expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.
• Revenue fell short of forecasts, impacting the overall financial outlook.
• Infrastructure segment achieved record adjusted EBITDA, supporting strong performance.
• Cost-saving initiatives resulted in $18 million in savings, with further potential identified.
• Strategic partnerships and terminal enhancements position the company for future growth.

Company Performance

Gibson Energy’s Q1 2025 performance was marked by strong results in its infrastructure segment, which achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $155 million. This was a $3.5 million increase year-over-year, underscoring the company’s strategic focus on infrastructure development. The marketing segment, however, reported a breakeven adjusted EBITDA, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $2.75 billion, below the $2.95 billion forecast.
• EPS: $0.2744, exceeding the $0.2575 forecast.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $142 million, down $28 million from Q1 2024.
• Distributable Cash Flow: $91 million, a decrease of $24 million from the previous year.
• Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio: 3.7x, slightly above the target range.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Gibson Energy’s EPS of $0.2744 exceeded the forecast of $0.2575, marking a positive surprise of approximately 6.6%. Despite this, the company’s revenue of $2.75 billion fell short of the anticipated $2.95 billion, a miss of about 6.8%. This mixed result reflects both operational strengths and challenges in revenue generation.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Gibson Energy’s stock increased by 2.46%, closing at $21.54. Based on InvestingPro Fair Value analysis, the stock currently appears overvalued compared to its fundamentals. The stock has shown relatively low price volatility historically, with a beta of 1.57, and has delivered a 4.46% total return over the past year.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Gibson Energy anticipates an improvement in its marketing segment performance in the latter half of 2025, with expected EBITDA ranging from $20 million to $40 million for the year. The company is also planning potential share buybacks in the second half of 2025, contingent on leverage and marketing performance. InvestingPro data reveals that 2 analysts have recently revised their earnings downward for the upcoming period, though the company is still expected to remain profitable this year.

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Executive Commentary

CEO Curtis Philippon highlighted the company’s infrastructure achievements, stating, "Record quarterly infrastructure EBITDA driven by all-time high volumes at both Gateway and Edmonton." He also emphasized the temporary nature of the marketing segment’s performance, indicating expectations for improvement.

Risks and Challenges

• Continued backwardation in the Canadian heavy oil market could pressure margins.
• Revenue shortfalls may impact future financial flexibility.
• Debt levels slightly above target range may constrain strategic initiatives.
• Potential volatility in refined products markets could affect marketing segment recovery.
• Execution risks related to ongoing infrastructure projects and partnerships.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the company’s dividend growth commitment and potential infrastructure partnerships. Management confirmed a focus on dividend growth and expressed optimism about leveraging technology and process efficiencies for cost savings.

Full transcript - Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI) Q1 2025:

Haley, Conference Operator: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Gibson Energy’s First Quarter twenty twenty five Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Beth Pollock, Vice President of Capital Markets and Risk. Ms. Pollock, please go ahead.

Beth Pollock, Vice President of Capital Markets and Risk, Gibson Energy: Thank you, Haley. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call this morning from Gibson Energy are Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer and Riley Hicks, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have the rest of the senior management team in the room to help with questions and answers as required. Listeners are reminded that today’s call refers to non GAAP measures, forward looking information, and is subject to certain assumptions and adjustments and may not be indicative of actual results.

Descriptions and qualifications of such measures and information are set out in our investor presentation available on our website and our continuous disclosure documents available on SEDAR plus Now, I would like to turn the call over to Curtis.

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Thanks, Beth. Good morning, thank you for joining us to discuss our first quarter financial and operating results. I’ll begin with key highlights from the quarter, our progress on strategic goals, an overview of financial performance and priorities ahead, before turning it over to Riley for a detailed review of our results and position. The first quarter marked a strong start to the year, including a new record for infrastructure adjusted EBITDA. Our strategy in 2025 is anchored in five core themes, safety, delivering on gateway, growth, cost focus, and building high performance teams.

I’m pleased to report strong momentum across all five. Proud to update that we have recently celebrated nine million hours without a lost time injury, and on a rolling twelve month basis, we set a new Gibson record for total recordable incident frequency. Safety is foundational to our success, and this performance underscores the team’s commitment. Gateway, our export terminal in Ingleside, saw record volumes this quarter, supported by new super major customers. This was achieved even with partial dock restrictions due to dredging work.

We’re pleased to report that the dredging project was completed safely on time and on budget, positioning Gateway as one of only two Texas terminals able to load 1,600,000 barrels on a VLCC or fully load a Suezmax vessel. The Cactus II Connection project remains on track for Q3 twenty twenty five completion and will add approximately 700,000 barrels per day of supply capacity to our terminal. Our overall growth strategy continues to focus on expanding our stable crude oil infrastructure platform. In Q1, we achieved a record GBP 155,000,000 in infrastructure adjusted EBITDA, driven by a full quarter contribution from new tanks with Synovus in Edmonton and record throughput at Gateway. In March, we announced the strategic partnership with Baytex to develop infrastructure in the Duvernay.

Under a ten year take or pay an area dedication agreement, we’ll deploy approximately $50,000,000 in upstream oil batteries and gathering lines at an established rate of return. Baytex will construct and operate the infrastructure with all crude volumes flowing through Edmonton Terminal. The project is on track to be in service by the year end 2025. Both Gibson and Baytex see opportunities to expand this partnership, and we’re excited by the growth potential this model presents, leveraging our terminals to work closely with our customers and deliver scalable infrastructure solutions. On cost focus, we set an ambitious company wide goal to realize over $25,000,000 in cost savings.

In q one, we internally launched the We Are All Owners initiative to engage employees in implementing savings opportunities. We set a target of at least 50% employee participation. In the end, nearly 400 people actioned the savings initiative, representing the participation of almost 80% of our team, and it made a significant contribution to the overall cost campaign to date. To date, we have implemented over $18,000,000 of cost savings, well on our way to exceeding the $25,000,000 target. People are the center of our success, and I’m pleased with the progress we’ve made across the organization on people and team alignment.

Later this month, we’ll welcome Dave Goss as our new SVP and chief operating officer. Dave brings deep experience in operational leadership, including as president of Energy Transfer Canada. In this role, he will lead all aspects of operations, engineering, supply chain, and environmental health and safety. Q1 results reflect the strength of our infrastructure business and focus on execution. We reported $142,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA and $91,000,000 in distributable cash flow, with infrastructure performance offsetting muted marketing results.

Infrastructure led the way with record volumes at both Edmonton and Gateway, helping to offset temporary dock outages due to dredging. Marketing results were in line with the breakeven guidance we provided on our Q4 twenty twenty four call. Both the Infrastructure segment and the overall consolidated results were positively impacted by the success of our cost focused campaign. We realized CAD6 million of both recurring and non recurring cost savings this quarter, boosting distributable cash flow by 7% per share. Looking ahead, as execute on growth capital projects, we’ll also be deploying our largest ever maintenance capital program.

This includes turnarounds at both Moose Jaw and the Hardisty DRU during the second quarter, as well as required maintenance at select terminal assets in both the second and third quarter. While the impact is not material to our infrastructure business, given these are all operating assets, we do expect some resulting interruptions during the quarter. The team has prepared well over the last year, and we’re looking forward to the safe execution of these turnarounds and some enhanced capabilities of our assets going into the third quarter. In summary, we delivered a strong first quarter that reflects disciplined execution, operational momentum and our focus on long term value creation. I’ll now turn the call over to Riley for more details on our financials.

Riley Hicks, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gibson Energy: Thank you, Curtis. As Curtis mentioned, we had a solid quarter to start the year. Record infrastructure adjusted EBITDA of $155,000,000 in the first quarter was $3,500,000 higher than the same quarter last year, driven primarily by record throughput at both Gateway achieved despite minor interruptions at the terminal due to our recently completed dredging project and Edmonton, which benefited from a full quarter contribution from two new tanks constructed for Synovus and backstopped by fifteen year agreements. Outperformance within the segment was also driven by the impact of cost savings initiatives realized within the quarter. Turning to our Marketing segment, adjusted EBITDA was breakeven for the first quarter, in line with the outlook we provided on our last quarterly call and a $33,000,000 decrease from the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

The crude marketing business was impacted by sustained elevated demand for Canadian heavy oil, resulting in persistent steep backwardation and narrow differentials, thereby limiting storage, quality and time based opportunities within the quarter. While we are seeing improvements in the crack spreads impacting our refined products business, these gains were offset by a seasonal reduction in demand for asphalt products, as well as the continued strength of the WCS differential impacting our feedstock costs at the facility. In terms of our marketing outlook for the second quarter and the remainder of 2025, we are beginning to see some fundamental improvements within the market, especially with respect to our refined products business as crack spreads have started to normalize and we will benefit from the seasonal increase in demand for asphalt based products. That being said, our upcoming turnaround at the Moose Jaw facility will impact our sales volumes through the second quarter, limiting the near term impact of the improving fundamental outlook. As such, when all factors are considered, we anticipate adjusted marketing EBITDA of 0 to $10,000,000 for the second quarter.

Looking further into the year, while we do see a more constructive market than we have during the past two quarters, we forecast annual contribution from our marketing segment to be below our long term guidance and within a range of 20,000,000 to $40,000,000 for 2025. Given the current market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, we will continue to provide both quarterly and annual guidance updates on our conference calls throughout the remainder of the year. Overall, on an adjusted EBITDA adjusted EBITDA on a consolidated basis was $142,000,000 in the first quarter, a $28,000,000 decrease from the first quarter of twenty twenty four, primarily a result of lower contributions from the Marketing segment and other previously mentioned factors. Turning to distributable cash flow, Gibson generated approximately $91,000,000 in the first quarter, a $24,000,000 decrease relative to the first quarter of last year. Consistent with previous commentary, the delta was driven largely by lower marketing results and partially offset by increased infrastructure EBITDA and the impact of $6,000,000 of cost savings initiatives realized within the quarter.

As Gibson has done to date, we remain highly focused on adhering to our financial governing principles, which include maintaining a strong balance sheet, remaining fully funded for all growth capital and ensuring our dividends are fully covered by stable, long term take or pay cash flows from our Infrastructure segment. As of the end of the first quarter, our debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.7 times, slightly above our three to 3.5 target range, while our consolidated payout ratio was 77%, within our 70% to 80% target range. On an infrastructure only basis, both leverage of 3.6 times and payout of 73% were below our targets of less than four times and less than 100% respectively. While consolidated leverage and payout are elevated, this is primarily a reflection of softer marketing segment performance and higher interest expenses. We continue to view the factors impacting our marketing business as temporary, and we remain firmly committed to our financial governing principles moving forward.

We also remain committed to our capital allocation philosophy, which is focused on deploying growth capital towards high quality infrastructure products, maintaining a solid balance sheet and repurchasing shares with any excess cash flows. As we previously communicated, given our capital program is heavily weighted towards the first half of the year, we would be targeting any potential share buybacks in the second half. With the significant market and geopolitical uncertainty we are seeing, we will continue to monitor our financial performance, leverage, sanctioned growth capital and our marketing outlook as we further assess the opportunity to execute this program, and we continue to remain firmly committed to our key financial governing principles. I will now pass the call back to Curtis for some closing remarks.

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Great. Thanks, Riley. In summary, we’re pleased to have started 2025 off with a strong quarter and a clear path to long term growth. Record quarterly infrastructure EBITDA driven by all time high volumes at both Gateway and Edmonton. The marketing segment has been muted.

We see this as temporary, and we are already seeing signs of improvement. Although overall leverage currently exceeds the upper end of our target range, the pressures on the marketing segment are transitory, and we remain firmly committed to our financial governing principles and are focused on returning leverage to within the targeted range. And finally, putting our team in place and safely completing the dredging project are important milestones for Gibson, positioning us for a strong finish to the year. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open it up for questions.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you’ll need to press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To address your question, press 11 again. Our first question comes from the line of Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen.

Your line is now open.

Aaron MacNeil, Analyst, TD Cowen: Hey, good morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. Curtis, with a clear view on marketing and your prepared comments on leverage, are you still committed to the $50,000,000 of buyback activity in the back half of the year? And if so, could you provide any clarity on when we might see Gibson repurchase shares?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Hey, Warren, Aaron. So from a share buybacks perspective, we always looked at those as being the back half of the year. So we’ve got a busy front half of the year from a growth capital perspective, and we’ll look at that in the back half of the year for the firm eye on where leverage is at the end of the year. Obviously, marketing performance is a key factor in that for us to go forward with the share buyback. We’re going to need to see some continued reasonable some reasonable performance out of the marketing segment.

Aaron MacNeil, Analyst, TD Cowen: Got you. Okay. And then maybe switching gears, do you see the Baytex project as part of a underserved market that the larger oil and liquids midstream companies aren’t focused on? And how do you think about it in terms of having the counterparty build and operate the asset? Is this largely financing or is there any broader integration of the assets that might perform improvements excuse me, may improve performance of other assets in the Gibson portfolio?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Yeah, we love the Baytec deal from the standpoint that it’s, you know, we offer a solution to our customers to solve an infrastructure problem for them out in the Duvernay and I was in a play that we love. We work closely with them to build some infrastructure, but we also importantly get the area dedication and those barrels coming to our Edmonton facility. So I I love that it’s you know, shows us working really well as a customer, drives some nice infrastructure business, but in really key, it really locks up those barrels into our Edmonton facility. So I definitely don’t look at it as a pure financing transaction. If without those barrels and that strategic fit, this probably doesn’t make sense for us.

But with those barrels, it provides a nice fit with the customer and great return project for us.

Aaron MacNeil, Analyst, TD Cowen: Makes total sense. Thanks Curtis. I’ll turn it back.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier from CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Robert Catellier, Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets: Hey, good morning. I just wondered if you could address your outlook for The U. S, particularly volume growth in light of the recently weaker commodity prices and maybe bigger picture, how you’re approaching growth in The U. S. In terms of capital deployment given you’ve had a number of executive changes.

I’m just curious if that approach has changed at all.

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Good morning, Rob. I think from a growth perspective, maybe I’ll talk overall on growth first. I think it’s Gibson’s has an interesting spot from a growth perspective. Just by the nature of our size, we don’t need major projects to drive a good stable growth rate for the business. Really, dollars 50,000,000, 1 hundred million projects really matter for us.

And so when I look out at across over across the asset base, I see you know, there’s a good a good backlog of projects we can go execute on over the next few years and drive that good steady rate of growth. Specifically in The US right now, right in front of us, we’re right in the middle of we just finished the dredging project at Gateway, and it’s really key for us to complete the Cactus project here in Q3. Really, the combination of those two really unlocks a lot of potential for us at Gateway. So that gets us pretty excited about what we can do with that asset going into the fourth quarter and really realize the full potential of that into next year. From an overall view of what’s the macro impact of oil prices and different things like that on The US business, still see the Permian barrel being an export barrel that’s going out to the world markets and the lowest cost, most efficient way to get that barrel to market is through Ingleside and through the Gateway Terminal.

And so I still feel very good despite where the oil price goes and any near term volatility in the oil price on that asset continue to perform really well. And in fact, see a lot of signposts that you’ll see sort of increasing activity out of that asset over the next couple of years. Even with sort of near term volatility on oil price, you still see a US administration that’s very focused on using energy to have an influence on on the world. And I believe that they wanna see more energy exports out of The US to address some of these trade deficits. And so I think the the Ingleside facility is gonna be a a key part of that story.

Robert Catellier, Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets: Okay. And then just turning to the marketing outlook here a bit, and thank you for the guidance you gave for Q2 and the year. I’m curious as to what the long term view is. What has to happen to return the marketing business back to the 80 to 120 long term guidance range? Obviously, there’s some complications this year with the turnaround, but in a normalized year where you don’t have the turnaround activity, etcetera, which of the items is more important for you to get the marketing guys back up?

Is it the differential, or is it returning to a state of contango?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Sure. From a marketing standpoint, really variability is not new to us in marketing. If you look back at Gibson’s marketing business over the last eight or nine years, average, we’ve generated, just over a hundred million dollars a year of of EBITDA from the marketing business. So it’s been a a a great contributor to the to the business. But, boy, it’s there’s variability and it’s lumpy.

And so if you look back over the those last eight or nine years, there’s only been two years where we were within the 80 to one twenty range. And so it’s it’s typically has some variability to it. And that’s why we when we look at that business, we we we love it, but we also recognize the importance of making sure that we fund our base business and our dividend offer infrastructure business and we really look at the marketing business as a great opportunity to fund incremental growth capital and to fund share buybacks. So, know, the variability is something we need to manage, but it’s sort of as expected from our perspective. What needs to change for the marketing business to improve as you as you look forward?

You know, a couple of big signposts that we see already that are that are exciting for us as we look into the back end of the year, it’s constructive. The biggest thing I’d point out would be the refined products business that obviously in Q2, we’re already seeing some improvement in refinery crack spreads and some good demand from products, but we are right in the middle of a turnaround, and so that facility is really either between shutting down and actually doing the turnaround and starting up either sort of minimal impact from the facility in in q two. And so in once you get into q three and q four, you’ve got sort of that facility post turnaround running with a little bit more increased capacity and capability and, running into a good market. We expect a reasonable market, expect in the back half of the year and just naturally, you have seasonal demand for asphalt that will pick up considerably as we get into the third quarter. So I think those things give me a lot of confidence that as we talk about the twenty to forty million in the back half of the year, sort of sequentially getting better as you get into the into the end of the year.

And that is something I think continues as you get into 2026, that we feel confident that you return back into the lower end of that 80 to 120 range as you get into 2026.

Robert Catellier, Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets: Okay. That’s a very helpful answer, a lot of color in there. Unless I missed it, I think you addressed marketing with respect to capital spending and repurchases. Maybe you can address the influence marketing has on the dividend and the dividend growth outlook. I think, if I’m not mistaken, you set the dividend to be sustainable on an infra only basis, fully loaded for interest taxes, maintenance capital.

So the question really is, what do you need to see or what visibility do you need in the marketing business to maintain a dividend growth philosophy?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Nick, just go back to it. The dividend is fully funded on the infrastructure business. It’s helpful, the marketing business, to fund incremental share buybacks and incremental growth capital, but from funding the dividend and funding the ongoing dividend growth, we’ve six years of, six consecutive years of growing dividends, and that’s that’s, something that we believe in firmly, and I expect to to see that continue going into the future.

Robert Catellier, Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks, everyone.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Hope from Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

Robert Hope, Analyst, Scotiabank: Hi. Good morning, everyone. So with the signing of the Baytex deal and where oil prices currently are at, are you seeing increased interest or inbounds from other producers for similar partnerships to what you did for Baytex?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Yes, thanks Rob. Yes, great question. Absolutely, I think Beth has turned into our commercial development person here as well with a lot of inbound calls following that press release. I think it was a real marker for us that we sort of had an open for business for this type of project out to the out to the market. And yes, there are there’s some interesting options in particularly in the area around where we have the Baytex transaction, but we we’re we’re selective in this.

We wanna make sure we’ve got an excellent partner that we’re comfortable from a credit perspective. We wanna make sure that there’s a strategic fit on those projects, that they drive volumes or there’s some other key strategic fit with it. And so I wouldn’t say it’s a blanket. We’re open for business for for every every type of project on infrastructure space, but there is some interesting additional opportunities, and I I expect that’s gonna be a key part of the the growth story for us over the next couple of years. These are the good actionable projects, both both actually with Baytex and with other counterparties other parties over the next few years.

Aaron MacNeil, Analyst, TD Cowen: All right, that’s great.

Robert Hope, Analyst, Scotiabank: And then maybe just moving down to Corpus, can you maybe just update us on how contracting discussions are for some incremental capacity there as well as the rollover capacity in the next little while, just given where pricing is and now that you have some increased capacity?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Yes. It’s exciting for us that we’re getting these projects done. So this was a key thing for us to be able to get access to more barrels coming to the facility. Just to remind everybody, sort of the access to Cactus II gives you an incremental 700,000 barrels of capacity. So significantly more volume available for customers, more volume and more customers available to come into the terminal.

And the dredging allows us to be on par with with the neighboring Enbridge facility. So that that’s a key thing for us that all of a sudden that we are the most cost competitive solution for getting barrels to the water. And I think that that’s attractive for people. Earlier this year, we added a couple new super major customers into the terminal, and that’s that’s been interesting. They’ve they’ve outperformed what we expected they would do in the in the first quarter, and I think that’s encouraging to add a couple of new customers into the mix and just, you know, get people comfortable working with the gateway terminal, appreciating what a great facility it is and what a great team we’ve got out there in Ingleside.

And I’m encouraged to see what that may bring down the road with sort of expanding their footprint in the facility. Other than that, we won’t give up play by play on contract renegotiations as we go forward. I think did that in the past and it really is not helpful as we go through these negotiations with customers. Would say though that the comment that I made earlier around sort of world markets appreciating that the US administration wants to move more barrels into the water and address trade deficits using energy is not lost on our customers, and that’s a conversation we’ve heard a fair bit. And but I I would caution the one other side of that comment that we’ve heard is all of this volatility in the world is, is having people pausing a little bit on some of those things.

As people are, wanting to see a little bit more certainty over tariff environments and things like that before they fully commit to expanded programs. So that’s something we’ll be hopefully watching for over the next six months.

Aaron MacNeil, Analyst, TD Cowen: That’s great. Thank you.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Maurice Choi from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Maurice Choi, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Thank you, and good morning. Just want to come back to the marketing guidance, and thank you for that. We’ve obviously seen a few U. S. Upstream companies reassess their twenty twenty five CapEx plans given the commodity price environment.

No notable change from the Canadian so far. So when you look at your 20,000,000 to $40,000,000 marketing guidance for this year, how would you describe your assumption of the market conditions that underpin this outlook? And also, the way you came up with this outlook, is this materially different from back in Q3 conference call when you were giving guidance for the Q4?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: I think what you’re seeing, pardon me, what you’re seeing with the 20,000,000 to $40,000,000 guidance is we’re really looking hard at what can we see right in front of us. I think we’ve got a high degree of certainty when you look at specifically on the refinery is what I’m keying on. And you know, I think there’s other additional things and volatility that could happen in the market that could provide additional upside. But what we can see right in front of us today is very clear on coming out of the turnaround, the increased impact we can can have with the refinery and so it gives us a high degree of confidence on the 20 to 40. And I would say if you rewind back to that Q3 guidance you’re referring to, it’s probably a bit more opaque on that and whereas this is very clear and it gives us a

Riley Hicks, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gibson Energy: lot of confidence on that range.

Maurice Choi, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Understood. And if we could just finish off on the maintenance program, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, this is the largest program this year with Moose Jaw and Hardest DDRU work. Can I just reconfirm the $60,000,000 that you guided to for the program late last year? And was there anything in particular about this program that you’re trying to address, or is this just a matter of, you know, the initiatives all being timed about the same time?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Yes, Mark. It’s 60,000,000. It’s still a good number. So no no change to the maintenance capital guidance, and it really is just timing of, when those required turnarounds happen to land at a similar time. And and then just from a weather perspective, it was convenient to be doing that in in the spring.

Maurice Choi, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Understood. Thank you very much.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Benjamin Fan from BMO. Your line is now open.

Benjamin Fan, Analyst, BMO: Hi, thanks. Want to go back to the comment and you’re treading above now. Do you anticipate I’m just digesting your marketing outlook and the path ahead. I mean, what quarter do you think your debt to EBITDA is going to peak out? Do you have a sense of how high it could go?

Riley Hicks, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gibson Energy: Yeah. Thanks, Ben. It’s Riley here. So when we think about our our kind of debt to EBITDA, we we would see it likely staying, you know, above our target range for the remainder of this year given our given our marketing outlook and then normalizing in 2026 as marketing recovers. From a from a peak standpoint, what we’re really looking at here is kind of our infrastructure leverage and our and our key rating agency metrics, and and we feel very comfortable with with where our balance sheet is on those on those factors.

And so we do remain firmly committed to getting our leverage down back within our range, and that’s a a high priority for us, but we are comfortable with where we sit in terms of our investment grade rating and our infrastructure leverage.

Benjamin Fan, Analyst, BMO: Okay. Got it. And maybe next on the cost savings, you broke up between recurring, nonrecurring. Can add a bit more details of the mix? And then what about the composition between O and M reduction and capital?

Is is there also a difference between those two buckets, you know, 25,000,000 plus?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Yeah. So the cost we’ve been really impressed with the cost savings program to date. So to to date, it’s it’s actually it’s been interesting. I I would say it’s been about fifty fifty to date on how much is EBITDA impacting versus DCF impacting. And also on the recurring versus non recurring, it’s been about fifty-fifty to date and what we’ve seen.

I think that’s a bit of a nature of early on, there’s a few more sort of one off sort of findings that we’re able to take advantage of. Think as you get a little bit deeper into the program over the course of the year, I expect that you’ll see a little bit more on the sort of reoccurring side of things. What seen on the cost improvement side of it, there’s probably three main buckets to the cost savings. I would say when we we look at what’s what’s coming in and where do we see the opportunity. Sort of the the first opportunity is around adopting technology and really finding interesting ways to use both physical asset technology to drive more efficiencies, but also AI and different things to drive different process efficiencies.

I think that’s that’s an interesting bucket. The second bucket we’ve seen is really just working really closely with supply chain and finding ways to really push back on inflation and find ways to to work closely with different suppliers or or or with our current suppliers to find additional cost savings. And then the last bucket is really just looking for waste and really is challenging ourselves and what are what things are are really unnecessary and are distractions with business that we can we can remove. I think to date, there’s been probably the biggest wins in that third box that we’ve been able to sort of eliminate some things that are just waste. And those are tend to be fairly quick and some of them tend to be somewhat one off.

Where I’m probably most excited though, I love those, those are great. But where I’m most excited though is when you look at that first bucket and the use of technology and implementing new physical changes, the processes are really the sustained, really impactful changes. And those tend to take a little bit more than a quarter to get fully up and running. And so I think you’ll see more of that as we get into the back half of the year. So I’m excited about what that sort of next phase brings.

Benjamin Fan, Analyst, BMO: Okay. Got it. Then just one one final touch up question on the the staffing side of things. You’ve you’ve added the COO. Is any anything ahead in the horizon?

Are you pretty much built up the high performing team structure?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Yeah. We’re we’re pretty excited. We get so added added Riley in the CFO seat earlier this year and with Dave in the COO seat, we’re we’re in great shape from sort of where the team’s at and excited about this group sort of leading us in the next chapter of Gibson. So very excited about what we’ve got with both those guys.

Benjamin Fan, Analyst, BMO: Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny from NBF. Your line is now open.

Patrick Kenny, Analyst, National Bank Financial: Thank you. Good morning. Just maybe back on gateway, I just wanted to clarify post dredging

Riley Hicks, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gibson Energy: and I’m sure we’ll get

Patrick Kenny, Analyst, National Bank Financial: an update in June on the tour, but just your expected utilization of the facility going forward and I guess the outlook for potentially moving forward with a third dock, would that be contingent on seeing further growth out of the Permian or are there opportunities even if the Permian enters sort of a maintenance mode here in the current commodity environment?

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Yeah. Thanks, Patrick. Yeah. So from a gateway utilization capacity, one of the things I’m most excited about is the is sort of with these increased capacity that we’ve got in gateway. You know, we talked a lot about, adding more volume into a VLCC.

I’d actually argue equally as important is that we’re now able to fully fill a Suezmax vessel. And that that’s something that I think actually drives some incremental new vessels into our facility. So Suezmax vessels have different ports are able to go participate in. And that’s that ability to fully fill one of those drives the real efficiency for our customers, and we think that’s that’s quite attractive. And I think that brings some incremental volume, incremental vessels into the facility on top of just more fills, extra more complete fills on current vessels.

So that’s interesting. As we think about a third dock, would not put the third dock in the plan for 2026, but we absolutely have the capability to do that. We’ll watch for how this plays out. I think it’s interesting that some of these other deepwater sort of options seem to be pulling back. And so that that will create a situation where I think people will need to look for ways to get more barrels to water and Ingleside is the most cost effective capital efficient way to do that.

And so I think that makes it quite interesting to think about expanding the dock, but I wouldn’t put that on the horizon for the next twelve months, but that’s that’s interesting. And lastly, I’d plug that it’s I look forward to seeing you and a whole bunch of other folks down in gateway down in early June. So we’re looking forward to hosting a good group down there of investors and analysts and then show off what a great asset we’ve got down there.

Patrick Kenny, Analyst, National Bank Financial: Okay, great. Thanks for that. And then maybe just with respect to some of the debt refinancings, I know it looks pretty manageable over the next year or two. But just in light of the leverage ratio being a little bit higher than where you want to see it, just in terms of managing the working capital going forward, wanted to check-in to see, it looks like quite a bit of inventory was flushed out in the quarter and given the outlook for subdued marketing margins, is the plan to sort of manage inventory levels going forward until some of these debt refinancings are executed? Or how are thinking about inventory, I guess, overall?

Riley Hicks, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gibson Energy: Yeah. Thanks, Pat. It’s Riley here. I think if you think about our maturities coming up, we obviously have one coming up this year. We feel like we’re in great shape to refinance that at really good rates.

When we think about inventory, really, know, as we build inventory, we’re building it for a reason. It’s typically because there’s quite a bit of margin associated with it. So it doesn’t really factor into how we would refinance our notes. And so if the opportunity is there to build inventory and and make margin within the marketing business, we will do so, and and we don’t think that would impact any any of our ability to to refinance our notes.

Patrick Kenny, Analyst, National Bank Financial: Okay. That’s great. Thanks, guys. I’ll leave it there.

Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, Gibson Energy: Thank you.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Beth for closing remarks.

Beth Pollock, Vice President of Capital Markets and Risk, Gibson Energy: Thank you, Haley, and thank you for joining us for our twenty twenty five first quarter conference call. Again, I would like to note that we have also made certain supplementary information available on our website, gibsonenergy.com. If you have any further questions, please reach out to investor. Relationsgibsonenergy dot com. Thank you.

Haley, Conference Operator: Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

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