Earnings call transcript: Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte Q2 2025 revenue beats estimates

Looking ahead, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte projects mid to high single-digit traffic growth for the remainder of the year. The company has maintained dividend payments for 5 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 4.12%. For deeper insights into OMAB’s valuation and growth potential, InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis through its Pro Research Report, available exclusively to subscribers. The company has maintained dividend payments for 5 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 4.12%. For deeper insights into OMAB’s valuation and growth potential, InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis through its Pro Research Report, available exclusively to subscribers.

Key Takeaways

• Revenue exceeded expectations by 15.08%, driven by strong passenger traffic.
• EPS missed forecasts by 5.08%, though this did not significantly impact stock prices.
• Monterrey Airport continues to be a major growth driver.
• The company maintains a robust EBITDA margin of 74.6%.
• Guidance anticipates mid to high single-digit traffic growth for the year.

Company Performance

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte demonstrated solid performance in Q2 2025, with total revenues increasing by 16.8% to 3.4 billion pesos. This growth was largely fueled by an 11% rise in passenger traffic, reaching 7.2 million. The company’s focus on expanding its Monterrey Airport operations has been a significant contributor to this growth, highlighting its strategic importance.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: 3.4 billion pesos, up 16.8% year-over-year
• Adjusted EBITDA: 2.6 billion pesos, a 19% increase
• EBITDA margin: 74.6%
• Net income: 1.3 billion pesos, up 3.8% year-over-year
• Cash from operations: 1.8 billion pesos

Earnings vs. Forecast

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte reported an EPS of 27.47 pesos, missing the forecast by 5.08%. Conversely, revenue significantly beat expectations, coming in at 4.35 billion pesos versus the anticipated 3.78 billion pesos. This revenue surprise of 15.08% underscores strong operational performance, particularly in passenger traffic and seat capacity.

Market Reaction

Despite the EPS miss, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte’s stock price showed resilience, increasing by 0.92% to 102.41 pesos. The stock has delivered an impressive 60.33% return over the past year, with analyst price targets ranging from $69 to $135. This movement suggests that investors were more focused on the robust revenue growth and operational performance. The stock remains well within its 52-week range, with a high of 116.26 pesos and a low of 59.08 pesos.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte projects mid to high single-digit traffic growth for the remainder of the year. The company is also planning a low single-digit tariff increase under its Master Development Program (MDP). Continued investment in Monterrey Airport is expected to drive future growth, with 49% of total investment allocated to this hub.

Executive Commentary

CEO Ricardo Duenas emphasized, "We anticipate for the rest of the year to be in the mid to high single-digit traffic growth." CFO Rufo Perez Priego highlighted Monterrey’s dynamic growth, stating, "Monterrey has been the airport that has grown most dynamically." These comments reflect the company’s strategic focus on leveraging Monterrey’s potential.

Risks and Challenges

• Potential regulatory changes from the U.S. Department of Transportation could impact operations.
• Economic fluctuations may affect passenger traffic and revenue.
• Competition from other airport operators and airlines could pressure market share.
• Supply chain disruptions could delay infrastructure development.
• Currency fluctuations might affect financial performance, given the company’s exposure to international markets.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the MDP investment levels, to which executives confirmed similar levels in real terms. Questions also focused on the company’s commercial revenue growth strategies and the maintenance of its dividend policy, which remains at 85-95% of net income.

Full transcript - Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV (OMAB) Q2 2025:

Conference Operator: Greetings, and welcome to Ooma’s Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations.

Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Thank you, Cherry, and hello everyone. Welcome to OMA’s Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. We are delighted to have you join us today as we discuss our company’s performance and financial results for the past quarter. Joining us today are CEO, Ricardo Duenas and CFO, Drupo Pespio. Please be reminded that certain statements made during the course of our discussion today may constitute forward looking statements which are based on current management expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially including factors that may be beyond our control.

And with that, I will turn the call over to Ricardo Buenos for his opening remarks.

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: Thank you, Emmanuel. Good morning everyone. This morning I will briefly comment on several key developments during the quarter including highlights of our upcoming master development program negotiation, then I will review our operational performance and financial results, and finally, I will be pleased to answer your questions. Let me begin with an update regarding our senior management team. During August and September, we will implement changes in two key leadership positions.

First, our Chief Operating Officer, Enrique Navarro, will be retiring in August after twenty one years of dedicated service to OMA. On behalf of the entire team, I want to express our gratitude of his leadership, commitment, and contributions throughout these years. We are pleased to announce that Raffulzacarias will succeed him as Chief Operating Officer. Raful has been with OMA since 2006 in various operational positions, most recently as Airport Administrator at our Monterrey Airport. Second, September, Pierre Romare will join OMA as Chief Commercial Officer, taking over from Alvaro Leyte, who will be assuming responsibilities within Vinci Airports.

We thank Alvaro for his valuable contributions to our commercial strategy. Pierre brings extensive commercial experience in the airport sector. He served as Chief Commercial Officer of Lyon Airport from 2018 to 2025. He also served as Global Aviation Development Director at Vinci Airports. Under Pierre’s leadership, we will continue to grow our extra aeronautical activities.

Moving on, on June 27, we successfully completed our 2,750,000,000.00 peso issuance in long term notes in the Mexican market. Proceeds will be used to repay 600,000,000 pesos in short term loans and the remainder will be used to fund committed investments as well as for general corporate purposes. Finally, let me provide an update of the ongoing negotiation process of the 2630 Master Development Program. At the June, we submitted our proposed MDP to Mexico’s Federal Civil Aviation Agency or AFAC. The total committed investment is similar in real peso terms to the amount committed under our previous MVP program, 21 to 25.

From early August through late September, AFAC will be conducting technical visits to our 13 airports to review discuss the proposed projects. Following that, we would expect negotiation of the tariff model to take place between October and November. Final approval of the MVP and the new maximum tariff is expected in early December, at which point we also anticipate disclosing the outcome to the market. Our investment proposal is designed to enhance efficiency and optimize operations while maintaining the highest standards of safety and service quality. Approximately 49% of the investment will be allocated to our Monterey Airport.

Key projects there include the third phase expansion of Terminal A, pavement reconfigurations such as platform expansions, the construction of fast taxiways, and several others, as well as a number of technology upgrades across our airport network. Other airports with significant investments include Culiacan, Ciudad Juarez, and Mazatlan. This proposal reflects a balanced and disciplined approach with a strong emphasis on optimizing capacity of our current infrastructure, as well as enhancing passenger experience and long term value creations. In terms of tariff expectation, based on our proposal, anticipate low single digit increase in the maximum tariff in real terms. Moving on to our main quarterly operational highlights.

In the 2025, OMAS passenger traffic totaled 7,200,000, an 11% increase year over year. Seat capacity during the quarter increased 12%. On the domestic front, passenger traffic grew by 10%, driven primarily by the Monterrey Airport, which saw increase on routes to the metropolitan area of Mexico City, including the Mexico City, IFA, and Toluca Airports. These routes collectively added over 360,000 passengers the quarter, representing 65% of the total domestic passenger growth. International passenger traffic increased by 19%.

This growth was also driven by Monterrey Airport with passenger traffic increase on routes to Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago, San Francisco, San Antonio, and Denver. These routes collectively added more than 106,000 passengers during the quarter, accounting for 66% of the total international passenger traffic increase in the quarter. In terms of airline participation, Viva Ropuz represented 51 of our total traffic during the quarter, with a 14% increase in terminal passenger numbers compared to the ’24. While Volaris, which accounted for 24% of our total traffic, recorded 31% passenger increase during the quarter. Moving on to OMA’s second quarter financial highlights, aeronautical revenues increased 17% with aeronautical revenue per passenger rising 5% in the quarter.

Commercial revenues had a strong 20% growth with commercial revenue per passenger increasing by 8% to 62 pesos in the quarter as compared to the second quarter of last year, mainly driven by restaurants, parking, VIP lounges, and retail. The occupancy rate for commercial space stood at 96% at the end of the quarter. On the diversification front, revenues increased 11% with industrial service contributing most to this growth. During the quarter, we completed the construction of a 5,000 square meter warehouse as part of the expansion plan of one of our tenants. OMA’s second quarter adjusted EBITDA increased by 19% to MXN2.6 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 74.6%.

On the capital expenditures front, total investments in the quarter, including MDP investments, major maintenance and strategic investments were ARS $965,000,000. I would now like to turn the call over to Rupo Perez Priego, who will discuss our financial highlights for the quarter.

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Thank you, Ricardo, and good morning, everyone. I will briefly walk you through our financial results for the quarter, after which we will open the call for your answers. Aeronautical revenues increased 17% relative to 2Q twenty twenty four, driven primarily by higher aerological yields as well as an increase in both domestic and international passenger traffic. Non aeronautical revenues increased 16%. Commercial revenues increased 19.7%.

The line items with the highest growth were restaurants, parking, VIP lounges and retail. Restaurants increased 41.1% driven by a greater customer penetration and the opening or replacement of outlets in previous quarters in airports such as Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez and Durango. Parking grew 12.7% mainly due as a result of higher domestic and international passenger traffic. VIP lounges rose 34.6%, mainly due to an increase in rates and higher number of users, as well as the opening and consolidation of the Cihuatanejo Lounge, which started operations on last year’s July. Retail increased 27.4% and similar to restaurant revenues, this was mainly due to a greater customer penetration and the opening or replacement of spaces in previous quarters in airports like Ciudad Juarez, Monterrey, Torreon and Culiacan.

Diversification activities increased 10.7%, mainly due to higher revenues from industrial services and hotel services. Industrial services grew over 100%, mainly due to an increase in leased square meters in our industrial park as compared to the 2024. Revenue from hotel services increased 4% year over year reaching 112,000,000, primarily driven by an increase in average run rates in both of our hotels, partially offset by lower occupancy rates. Total aeronautical and non aeronautical revenues grew 16.8% to MXN 3,400,000,000.0 during the quarter. Construction revenues amounted to MXN $916,000,000 in 2Q twenty twenty five, an increase of 64.7% as a result of increased MDT investments.

The cost of services and G and A expense increased 5.6% year over year, primarily due to an 11% rise in payroll. Contracted services rose 8.2%, mainly due to higher costs for security and cleaning services following contract renewals in prior quarters. Concession tax increased 18.1% to MXN $283,000,000 in line with increase in revenues. Major maintenance provision was MXN 50,400,000.0 compared to MXN 43,000,000 last year. As Ricardo mentioned, OMA’s second quarter adjusted EBITDA reached MXN 2,600,000,000.0 and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 74.6%.

Our financing expense increased by 184,000,000 reflecting $185,000,000 variation in non cash interest expense related to major maintenance provision as a result of lower discount rates used for each calculation. Consolidated net income was Ps. 1,300,000,000.0 in the quarter, an increase of 3.8% versus 2Q twenty twenty four. Turning to our cash position. Cash generated from operating activities in the second quarter amounted to 1,800,000,000.0 pesos and investing activities used cash for $575,000,000 pesos.

Financing activities reflect interest expense payments, the first installment of the ordinary dividend of MXN 2,250,000,000.00, the long term debt placement of MXN 2,750,000,000.00 and the prepayment of MXN 600,000,000 of short term loans, resulting in a net cash outflow of MXN138 million. As a result, our cash position at the end of the quarter stood at MXN3.4 billion. At the June, and including the latest debt issuance, total debt amounted to 13,600,000,000.0 pesos. We maintain a strong balance sheet ending the quarter with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of one times. This concludes our prepared remarks.

Sherry, please open the call for questions.

Conference Operator: Thank A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment while we poll for questions. Our first question is from Guilherme Mendez with JP Morgan.

Please proceed.

Guilherme Mendez, Analyst, JP Morgan: Ricardo, Rufo, Emmanuel. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is a follow-up on the MDP and thanks for providing more color. Just wanted to confirm if I got it right. Ricardo, you mentioned about a similar level of CapEx in absolute terms, in nominal terms, correct?

So, we will be talking about In real 12 terms. To In real terms. Okay, perfect. Not per passenger, right?

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: No, in real terms and absolute numbers.

Guilherme Mendez, Analyst, JP Morgan: Perfect. Thank you. And then, the second point is on the traffic outlook. We have been seeing a very strong performance month after month. On the previous call, you guys mentioned about an expectations for a mid single digit increase for the year, which looks conservative at this point.

So, I just wanted to get a fresh view on what you’re expecting for the second half of this year. Thank you.

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: Yeah. Thank you, Guillermo. Yes, so we had a very good first half of the year. So, we anticipate for the rest of the year to be in the mid to high single digit traffic growth. We expect some of the growth that we’ve seen in the first half of the year to reduce as we move along for the rest of the year based on the reduced capacity announced by some of the airlines and also by tougher comps compared to last year.

But the mid to high single digits would be a fair and accurate.

Guilherme Mendez, Analyst, JP Morgan: Perfect. Thank you. And if I may, a follow-up on what is driving the traffic performance. So, we have seen the new routes coming into Monterrey, but is this related to near shoring in some way, or is there’s anything else explaining the strong performance? Thank you again.

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Hi, Guillermo. This is Rufo. So, certainly, Monterey has been the airport that has grown most dynamically during this year, both in domestic and international terms. And certainly, industrial activity we continue to see very strong industrial activity and low occupancy very high occupancy factors in the industrial park business, which is an indicator of very strong economic performance in the region. So, yes, we attribute traffic growth to strong economic performance in that market.

Guilherme Mendez, Analyst, JP Morgan: Very clear. Thank you both.

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: Thank you.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Juan Ponce with Bradesco BBI. Please proceed.

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Hi, everybody. Thank you for taking my question and for the call. Monterrey’s international traffic has been increasing a lot, new routes, etcetera. What what are you expecting in terms of the network development in this airport over the next twelve months? Thank you.

So, we still see new openings in particularly in domestic side in the Monterrey Airport in the second half. And we expect consolidation of some of the routes that were opened recently, particularly since last November. But as we mentioned, there are some capacity cuts being announced and they started to kick in June. So, therefore, we don’t expect that much acceleration in the second half of the year in terms of passenger growth in the international marketing in Monterrey, but we do still see a pretty good growth for the full year.

Guilherme Mendez, Analyst, JP Morgan: Thank you. That was very clear.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Alberto Valerio with UBS. Please proceed.

Alberto Valerio, Analyst, UBS: Hi. Thanks, Ricardo, Manuel. One follow-up on the MVP question. You you mentioned about the high single digit tariffs. Should we expect any concentration in an airport or should there be some divergence between among the own airports on tariffs?

Thank you very much.

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: I’m sorry. Could you repeat your question, Alberto? Sorry, the line.

Alberto Valerio, Analyst, UBS: No problem. It’s better now. Can you hear me?

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Yes.

Alberto Valerio, Analyst, UBS: Yes. About the tariff for MVP, Ricardo mentioned that in the initial remarks that probably will be high single digits. Is that correct?

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: And if so, should we difference

Conference Operator: see

Alberto Valerio, Analyst, UBS: between among the airports? Some airports with higher increasing tariffs, some others with maybe a decrease in tariffs?

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: It’s still part of the negotiation, Alberto. We don’t see a decrease in any of them, but we’re still a work in progress with the authorities. But it’s in the the growth we expect is in the low single digits. We believe this what maximizes the net present value of the company.

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Perfect. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Abraham Gents with Bank of Santana. Please proceed.

Abraham Gents, Analyst, Bank of Santana: Thank you. Good morning. I wonder if you can give us more color about the growth in the commercial revenue per passenger that you are expecting in the mid to long term, specific with your entity that you are

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Thanks.

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Hi, Ebrahim. So commercial revenues obviously have increased by a number measures that we have been implementing over the last couple of years, renegotiation of contracts, opening of new outlets, refresh of the decoration and the feel and look of the stores as well as some use of technology to maximize passenger, I would say, exposure to retail outlets and to the ambush outlets. We expect those activities to continue. And but just in the second part of your question, you mentioned MVP. Remember that MVP refers to aeronautical investments.

So therefore, we don’t see that much relationship between the MVP and the commercial growth of revenue for last year.

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Okay. Thank you.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Gabriel Himelzar with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: Hi. Thanks for the call. Quick question. Are you perhaps looking the possibility of new assets or investments perhaps on Brazil now that Motiva CCR is selling airport assets? Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you, Gabriel. Not formally as FOMA, we’re not formally involved in that specific process. We’re always looking for potential opportunities in airports, but we’re not involved in that specific we’re not involved in the formal process as of today. Okay.

Thank you very much.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Federico Galasev with TRG. Please proceed.

Federico Galasev, Analyst, TRG: Hi. Thank you. Two questions, if if you can give us a a round number. But in in in general terms, how how much of the the non the commercial revenues are coming from Monterrey, if you if you have an a number for that, thinking that you you will increase the commercial capacity at the end of this year or next year.

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: I I don’t have the specific number, Felipe. We’ll get back, to to you. But, yeah, I I, I’ll I’ll I’ll look for you and and get back to you.

Federico Galasev, Analyst, TRG: Okay. Thank you. And and the and the second one for is, relating related to the NDP, the the all the the investment in in Monterrey. Can you give us, and I understand it’s more related to aeronautical than commercial, but can you give us some clue what are focus of these new investments?

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Yes. So we mentioned that about 49% of the next MVP will be focused on on Monterey. What we are doing is a lot of expansion in and platform capacity to to to maximize the the use of existing gates and be able to use also remote gates to service our airlines and passengers. We’re doing new fast lane exit taxiways from the runway also to increase its efficiency. And we are also expanding continue to expand the Terminal A Of Monterey throughout the five year period as well to be able to cope with the expected demand that we anticipate in Monterrey.

So basically, that’s the key highlights of those investment airports coupled with lot of technology operates. So, we can also be able to process passengers more efficiently and provide a better experience to passengers.

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Okay. Thank you so much.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from David So to with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one. Do you see any upside risk on passenger growth due to the U. S.

DOT actions at Mexico?

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Can you repeat, please?

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Sorry, do you hear me there? Yes. Yes. My question was, do you see any upside risk on passenger growth due to the recent U. S.

DOT actions at Mexico?

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Your question is if we see a risk on passenger outlook because of the DOT announcements recently?

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Yes, correct. Sorry for all the background.

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: Yes. So, yes, we do not expect any major impacts in the following months, but we will continue to monitor closely any measures taken by the U. S. DOT.

Abraham Gents, Analyst, Bank of Santana: Okay, perfect. Thanks.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Alan Marcias with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Hi. Good morning and thank you for the call. Just a question regarding dividend policy. Given your expected CapEx for the next five years, could we expect the change in dividends, an increase there? Thank you.

Rufo Perez Priego, CFO, OMA: Yes. In terms of the dividend policy, we have been in past recent years distributing between 85 to $95 of net income. And we would expect to continue with a similar policy for the foreseeable future. So as EBITDA and net income grows, yes, there will be available cash flow for distribution.

Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations, OMA: Thank you.

Conference Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Ricardo for closing remarks.

Ricardo Duenas, CEO, OMA: We would like to thank everyone for participating in today’s call. We appreciate your insightful questions, engagement, continued support. Rufo, Emmanuel, and I are always available should you have any further questions or require additional information. Thank you once again, and have a great day.

Conference Operator: Thank you. This will conclude today’s conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

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