Earnings call transcript: Heineken sees modest Q3 2025 revenue decline, maintains profit guidance

Heineken N.V. reported a slight decline in its Q3 2025 net revenue, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic challenges and regional disparities in consumer sentiment. The company’s stock rose by 1.64% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic initiatives despite a challenging quarter. According to InvestingPro analysis, Heineken appears undervalued based on its Fair Value calculations, with a low P/E ratio of 18.8x relative to its near-term earnings growth potential. The company’s focus on premiumization and digital transformation continues to drive its long-term growth strategy.

Key Takeaways

• Heineken’s Q3 net revenue fell 0.3% organically to €7.3 billion.
• Beer volume dropped by 4.3% organically, with a 2.2% decline in premium beer volume.
• The company anticipates full-year organic operating profit growth at the lower end of its 4-8% guidance.
• Macroeconomic volatility and weak consumer sentiment in Europe, particularly Poland, impacted performance.
• Heineken’s stock increased by 1.64% in pre-market trading, indicating positive investor sentiment.

Company Performance

Heineken faced a challenging third quarter, with net revenue declining slightly due to macroeconomic volatility and varied consumer sentiment across regions. While beer volumes decreased, the company reported a 3.6% increase in net revenue per hectoliter, highlighting its successful premiumization strategy. Heineken’s performance in emerging markets like Ethiopia and Vietnam remained strong, offsetting some of the weaknesses in Europe.

Financial Highlights

• Net Revenue: €7.3 billion, a 0.3% organic decline from the previous year.
• Year-to-date net revenue: Increased 1.3% organically.
• Net revenue per hectoliter: Increased by 3.6%.
• Beer volume: Declined 4.3% organically.
• Premium beer volume: Declined 2.2%.

Market Reaction

Heineken’s stock price rose by 1.64% in pre-market trading following the earnings release. This movement suggests that investors remain optimistic about the company’s strategic focus on premiumization and digital transformation, despite the modest revenue decline. The stock’s performance is within its 52-week range, with a high of €71.4 and a low of €54.8, indicating stable investor confidence. Notably, Heineken has maintained dividend payments for 34 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 3.12%. For deeper insights into Heineken’s valuation and financial health, InvestingPro subscribers have access to over 30 additional financial metrics and expert analysis.

Outlook & Guidance

Heineken expects modest volume declines for the rest of 2025, with full-year organic operating profit growth anticipated at the lower end of its 4-8% guidance. The company remains focused on agile risk management and continued investment in growth markets, despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

Executive Commentary

Harold van den Broek, CFO of Heineken, noted, "Quarter three was a challenging quarter, with macroeconomic volatility persisting." He emphasized the cyclical nature of the challenges in the Americas and highlighted the company’s significant investment in digitizing its business.

Risks and Challenges

• Macroeconomic volatility: Continued global economic uncertainty could impact consumer spending.
• Regional disparities: Weak consumer sentiment in Europe, particularly in Poland, poses challenges.
• Competitive market dynamics: Intense competition in key markets like Brazil and Mexico.
• Supply chain disruptions: Potential for packaging regulations to impact operations.
• Volume decline: Expected modest declines in beer volume could affect revenue growth.

The earnings call highlighted Heineken’s strategic focus on premiumization and digital transformation as key drivers of future growth, despite current economic headwinds.

Full transcript - Heineken Holding NV (HEIO) Q3 2025:

Tristan, Host/Moderator, Heineken: Great. Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for today’s live webcast of our 2025 Q3 trading update. Your host will be Harold van den Broek, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. The presentation includes forward-looking statements and expectations based on management’s current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. It is possible that the actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I will now turn over the call to Harold.

Harold van den Broek, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken: Thank you, Tristan, and welcome, everyone, indeed. Let me take a few minutes to give you a brief summary of the quarter and then open the line for your questions. Quarter three was a challenging quarter, with macroeconomic volatility persisting, compounded by other cyclical factors dampening consumer sentiment and, frankly, weighing on industry trends. In this environment, however, our advantaged geographical footprint helped us adapt, as solid performances in Africa and Asia partially offset the Americas and Europe. In this context, we were pleased we were able to gain market share in the substantial majority of our markets. During the quarter, we also announced a fiscal transition in Central America, adding to our growth profile and earnings accretion upon completion in the first half of next year.

Last week, as we stayed firm on our evergreen strategy, we announced an acceleration in our digital journey and the reshaping of our organization, including a change at the headquarters in Amsterdam, leading to substantial reductions of roles there. Taking into account the challenging quarter and with high confidence in our half a billion gross savings target for 2025, we now anticipate our full-year organic operating profit growth to now be towards the lower end of our 4% to 8% guidance. Let’s take a look at our financial highlights for the quarter. Net revenue for quarter three came in at €7.3 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% organically, with year-to-date positively growing 1.3%. Net revenue per hectoliter increased by 3.6%, led by pricing to mitigate inflationary pressures and by a positive mix effect from portfolio premiumization.

Beer volume was down 4.3% organically for the quarter, with growth in Africa and the Middle East, but declining volume in Europe and the Americas. Our premium beer volume was down 2.2%, with Heineken brand down 0.6%, though year-to-date both are growing, further building the quality volume mix in our portfolio. Let’s take a look at the moving components of net revenue. Price mix was up 3.3%, led by pricing of 2.3% to mitigate inflationary pressures, as already said, and by a positive mix effect of 1% from portfolio premiumization, especially in Africa, the Middle East, and in Asia-Pacific. Total consolidated volume on an organic basis was down 3.8%, performing ahead of beer due to the strong performance of our beer brands in Africa and the Middle East, such as Bernini and Savannah. This resulted in an organic decrease for the quarter of €23 million, or 0.3%.

Year-to-date net revenue increased organically with €295 million, or 1.3%. The translation of foreign currencies had a negative effect of €304 million, or 4%, mainly due to the strengthening of the euro against the Mexican peso, Ethiopian birr, and Brazilian real. Consolidation changes were minimal this quarter. Let me unpack the Heineken performance for a minute in the quarter and year-to-date. Heineken volume fell slightly by 0.6%, as double-digit growth in 21 markets could not offset contraction in Brazil and in the U.S., as the overall beer markets fell and distributors destocked. Year-to-date, Heineken continues to be in growth. Heineken 0.0 declined by 1.8%, similarly related to the distributor destocking in Brazil and the U.S. Nevertheless, in the U.S., based on depletions, Heineken 0.0 grew for the 24th consecutive quarter in a row. Globally, Heineken Silver grew in the high 20s with continued strong performances in China and Vietnam.

On to our results by region. Let me start with Africa and the Middle East. We performed well there, with all our key markets contributing. Net revenue (beia) grew 14.9% organically, with price mix on a constant geographic basis up 13.6%, driven by strong pricing across the region and positive mix. Beer volume increased organically by 2%, with strong performances throughout, including Ethiopia, South Africa, as well as smaller markets such as Namibia, Rwanda, and Tunisia, more than offsetting contraction in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Throughout Africa, we delivered solid market share gains. In Nigeria, organic net revenue (beia) grew in the 30s, with robust market share gains in an economically challenging environment. Volume declined by a mid-single digit. Significant pricing and positive portfolio mix shifts drove strong growth in revenue per hectoliter, both in local currency and in euro terms.

Premium beer rose in the double digits, driven by the leading Stout, Desperados, and Heineken. Heineken Beverages, our multi-category beverage business in East and Southern Africa, delivered another sequentially improved performance. Beer volume in South Africa increased by a high single digit. Growth was broad-based with Amstel, Windhoek, and Heineken in growth. Our cider and RTD portfolio also delivered solid growth, led by Bernini, Savannah, and the launch of the new Mainstay cocktail range. We are also pleased to see excellent performance in Heineken Beverages International, led by Namibia, Kenya, and Tanzania. Over to Ethiopia, where our organic net revenue grew by over 50%, driven by beer volume increasing by a double digit and outperforming the market. Our leading mainstream brand, Harrah, continues to be the growth engine thanks to its distinctive iconography, differentiated taste profile, and continued regional expansion, cementing its position as a truly national brand.

Let’s now move to the Americas. Net revenue declined 5.5% organically, and beer volume was down 7.4%, as the region was disproportionately affected by subdued consumer sentiment and macroeconomic developments, including trade uncertainty, which we consider to be cyclical in nature. Despite the soft environment, we gained share in the vast majority of our markets across the region, especially in Brazil and Mexico. Price mix on a constant geographic basis was up 1.2%, led by pricing across the region and the continued premiumization of our portfolio. In Mexico, revenues were broadly stable, with beer volume down by a low single digit, as we gained share in a soft market with weak consumer sentiment. We delivered solid growth in Tecate Original and Dos Equis, and also in premium, where Miller High Life performed very well.

In Brazil, beer shipment volume contracted in the mid-teens, in part driven by the inventory buildup ahead of the price increase taken per the 1st of July. Beer shipment volume year-to-date is down by a mid-single digit. Based on our sell-out data, however, we gained significant market share in a market that declined by a high single digit for the quarter. Pricing increased by a low single digit. Heineken and Amstel declined in volume in quarter three, but continued to gain share, while Eisenbahn delivered strong growth in the affordable premium segment. In the U.S., shipment volume was down in the mid-teens, reflecting distributor stock adjustments and a tough beer market with disproportionate impact on consumers of Heineken and Dos Equis. Heineken 0.0 depletions grew by a low single digit, and as I mentioned earlier, recorded its 24th consecutive quarter of uninterrupted growth. Now on to Asia-Pacific.

Net revenue increased organically by 5.6%, as price mix on a constant geographical basis was up 5.9%. Beer volume declined by 0.8%, as strong growth in Vietnam, Myanmar, and Laos could only partially offset lower volume in India and Cambodia. In Cambodia, our business continues to be challenged in a fiercely competitive environment. Consolidated premium beer grew by a high single digit, led by Heineken, led by Heineken Silver, I should say, Kingfisher Ultra Max, and our Stout portfolio. In Vietnam, beer volume was up by a high single digit ahead of a growing market. The Heineken brand grew nearly 40%, led by the continued success of Heineken Silver. Our mainstream portfolio grew double digits, with La Route Smooth performing strongly. In India, beer volume fell by a mid-single digit, impacted by an unusually strong monsoon season, but we still outperformed the market.

Price mix expanded by a high single digit, supported by pricing in key states and portfolio mix, with premium volume growing in the teens. In China, Heineken Original, Heineken Silver, and Amstel maintained strong momentum, with license volume growing in the mid-20s and gaining market share. Amstel once again doubled its volume this quarter. Finally, a word on Europe. Net revenue via declined 3.6% organically, while price mix on a constant geographic basis increased 0.9%. Beer volume decreased organically by 4.7%, and solid growth in the UK, Ireland, and Portugal was more than offset by declines elsewhere. Nevertheless, we saw favorable channel developments, with the on-trade performing better in the quarter, though not in growth. In the UK, beer volume increased by a low single digit, outperforming the market. Positive price mix was driven by pricing and portfolio shifts.

Cruzcampo, our authentic Spanish lager from Seville, continued its strong trajectory, with volume growth exceeding 50%. Murphy Stout continued to expand, and in ciders, Inches continued to reach its growth trajectory. In France, the Netherlands, and Germany, volume recovery, however, was slower than anticipated following the conclusion of retail negotiations in the beginning of the quarter. It took longer to build back to normal distribution levels, and we expect normalization in the near term and saw improvement as the quarter progressed. The Polish market continues to be weak. Last week, we also announced the intended closure of a Namyslow Brewery, as we continue to reshape our business. In Austria, the impact of the recently introduced CAM deposit scheme continues to affect consumer demand.

Spanish volumes were stable, and we saw strong performance in Portugal, growing beer volume by a mid-single digit, led by Sagres, while Birra Moretti and Murphy Stout drove the volume growth and market share gains, led in Ireland. Let’s now move to the outlook for the 2025 financial year. We anticipate ongoing macroeconomic volatility that may impact our consumers, including weak consumer sentiment, global inflationary pressures, and currency devaluation in relation particularly to a stronger euro. Our business continues to adapt with agility to these market conditions. Given the challenging quarter just behind us, and based on our current assessment of short-term consumer demand, we expect volume to decline modestly for the year 2025.

Taking stock of this volume outlook and our confidence in achieving our productivity target of €500 million, we anticipate our full-year organic operating profit growth to now be towards the lower end of our 4% to 8% guidance. Now, before we go into Q&A, just once again to summarize. Quarter three was a challenging quarter, with macroeconomic volatility persisting, compounded by other cyclical factors, dampening consumer sentiment, and weighing on industry trends. We had solid performances in Africa and Asia, somewhat moderating the pressure we saw in the Americas and in Europe. We were also able to gain market share in the substantial majority of our markets. We are very excited about the Fifth Con transaction in Central America, adding to our growth profile and earnings accretion upon completion in the first half of next year. We will continue to stay the course on our evergreen journey.

As I just said, we anticipate our full-year organic operating profit growth to now be towards the lower end of our 4% to 8% guidance. With that, I would like to open the line for Q&A. Thank you for listening.

Call Operator: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to remove your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your phone is unmuted locally. We ask you to present yourselves to one question and one follow-up. The first question goes to Edward Brampton Mundy of Jefferies LLC. Edward, please go ahead.

Morning, Harold. The first question is really around the commentary within the release that the macro volatility became more pronounced in the third quarter, which would suggest that the environment became trickier than you would have expected. Yet you’ve still managed to deliver, or you’re still keeping your guidance range of 4% to 8%, albeit at the lower end of it. The question is really, how has your approach to risk management evolved to identify those risks and adapt your plan in real time to still be able to deliver on your guidance range? What are the things you’ve leaned on in particular to do that? That’s the first question. The second question is just on Brazil. You flagged that sell-out trends were better than sell-in trends.

I was just hoping to get a bit of a feel as to whether that shipment and mismatch has washed through as at the end of the third quarter and as you go into Q4, sell-in should more broadly match sell-out.

Harold van den Broek, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken: Yeah. Thanks, Ed. Both really good questions. Indeed, the macroeconomic volatility that we really firmly believe is cyclical in nature, as we said, was more pronounced in quarter three. What you do see is that, particularly in the Americas, for instance, you see the beer market was actually softening. I already cautioned that, if you can recall, in our first half results, where we specifically called out Brazil as an early sign of consumer sentiment turning given the tariff uncertainty revolving around there. That really played out more pronounced than we had anticipated, but we did have it on our radar screen. Indeed, to your point, our risk management has definitely evolved. We spoke about that as well for two reasons.

First, our business is really starting to pay much more attention to macroeconomic indicators that may have an impact on, for example, funding of smaller businesses, overall consumer sentiment, remittances. Those we see as really the leading indicators that we should factor in and base our risk management approach on. The second thing is to really prepare for scenarios. That is also the agility that we are often referring to, that we’re not only sticking to one fixed plan, but that we really have plan A, B, and C depending on these lead indicators. I think that takes time. It takes practice. By no means are we perfect, but that is certainly in the world of today something that we’re paying a lot of attention to.

Now, what are the implications and why we are confident to stay within our 4% to 8% range, albeit at the lower end, is we have consciously invested in the markets where we believe we see a turn of the tables turn. For example, we spoke hesitantly, but still hopefully, about the market growth and our market share momentum in Vietnam and consciously invested last year and the beginning of this year to fuel that growth with a differentiated portfolio. You now see that momentum coming in, and that is one of those offsets that we were talking about. In Ethiopia, to give another example, we really are very pleased with how the business is performing. Also there, we adapted to hyperinflation, and our business really came out stronger, is what we believe. They’re now repaying their debts, as they would call it themselves.

You also see the cost measures that we’ve taken in Nigeria, but also the continued progress in South Africa. We haven’t taken shortcuts. At this moment in time, these markets that I’m just calling out are able to rebalance somewhat the trickier times that we see in the Americas and to some extent in Europe. That is really the portfolio management that we’re aiming to do. That’s why we can, together, of course, with a very good grip on our cost performance agenda, stay within that range. To your second question, the Brazil sell-in versus sell-out, I also recall that this was a key theme in our half-one results, where we already flagged that we had to take one-off adjustment measures.

The only thing, of course, that you will appreciate is you take a snapshot about what needs to happen, in which channel, and what level of stock adjustment we need to take. If the market continues to go backwards, like we’ve seen in quarter three in Brazil, that impact still worked through in the quarter. Together with the pre-price increase stock up, that needed time to rebalance. To your question, yes, we believe that at the end of September, that is now fully balanced out, and we see healthy stock levels in as far as we see the market. We don’t have 100% coverage, but we got a good coverage about the stock in trade that we see out there. It should be normalized in quarter four.

Call Operator: Thank you. The next question goes to Sanjeet Aujla of UBS Investment Bank. Sanjeet, please go ahead.

Harold van den Broek, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken: Good morning, Harold. A couple from me, please. Just firstly, on pricing in the Americas, it still seems to be quite low in the context of where I think at H1, you highlighted higher transactional FX headwinds in the region. Can you just give us a flavor of how you’re pricing in Mexico and Brazil relative to the competitors and how those price increases are landing? That’s my first question. My second question is just back on Europe. Can you give us a sense of how much of the Q3 decline is related to the slow recovery following the resolution of the customer disputes? As we look forward, do you expect to fully recover or recover at least a vast majority of what you’ve lost in the first three quarters as a function of those disputes? Thank you. Yeah.

Look, we are really trying to manage pricing, of course, by getting the best balance between two. The first, what will we need to do for a healthy business? Indeed, to your point, foreign exchange has significantly moved year on year, and we do need to take that into account. That’s why we also took later than our competitor this year pricing in Brazil. The other reality is consumers and competitors. Therefore, we really are quite disciplined, market by market, to look at what is the right pricing and revenue margin growth strategy to not lose consumers and to not be outpriced versus competition, because that would really have a significant impact on our market shares. As you saw, we are still very happy with our market share gains to date in both Mexico and Brazil. We will continue to look at pricing.

We’ve taken July in Brazil, and we are taking pricing in Mexico around quarter four. We do that in moderation because we also really look at the competitive environment. If needed, we will compete for volume share accordingly. We are going to pay close attention to make sure that we stay on the healthy side of that range. We do expect a little bit of pricing also to come in the second half or in the remainder of the year. Now, on Europe, let me just be short there. Indeed, it was a slower recovery, and it was basically driven by the fact that both market sentiment is relatively weak. Also, in those stores, we have to organize for shelf replenishment. It’s not like an army of people were just waiting to vacate shelf positions and put our product back in stock. There were no empty shelves.

We just had to renegotiate store by store and bring distribution back to expected levels. Frankly, that took a lot longer than I would have liked and I also would have expected. I’m not happy with how long that has taken. I know that the team is really on top of this week by week. There are trackers in place at store and outlet level to see what can be done. We believe that this is really now behind us. We’re at the last 5% to 10% of claiming back the distribution. Therefore, we expect certainly by the end of this year, if not sooner, that this situation is firmly behind us.

Sorry, just a quick follow-up. Do you think you can fully recover or at least recover the vast majority of what you’ve lost, or is that a difficult thing to allow?

No, I think we have. As I said before, we have negotiated a full recovery, and we really are working hard to achieve that. Maybe just to give you a bit of a point of indication about the magnitude, about a third of the volume loss in Europe in the quarter was related to this late restocking. The rest is mostly a combination of market share in some of the markets like Poland and general market softness.

Great. That’s very helpful. Thank you.

Call Operator: The next question goes to Simon Hales of Citigroup Inc. Simon, please go ahead.

Thank you. Morning, Harold. Morning, Tristan. It’s just come from me then. Harold, could you just delve a little bit deeper into perhaps the underlying market dynamics you’re seeing in Brazil and Mexico as you’ve been through the quarter and coming to Q4? In particular, what are you seeing around the state of the consumer? Any real changes in consumer offtake behavior that you’re noting in the current environment? My second question was around your comments around the improving on-premise performance in Europe that you noted. How broad-based was that? Could you talk a little bit about the performance of the UK pub business in that context?

Harold van den Broek, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken: Sure. Let’s start with the underlying dynamics. It’s a good and interesting question, and actually one that makes me happy to talk about because we really, really do firmly believe that what we’re currently seeing in the Americas is cyclical. Why do I say that? The beer fundamentals, for example, in Brazil remain very strong. There is continued population growth. There is income growth, although at this moment in time, uncertainty because of the tariffs and the high interest rate that we talked about last time. Interestingly, what you do see is that the competitive environment is actually quite healthy in that sense. Both our main competitors and ourselves are really starting to continue accelerating the development of the beer category, driving premiumization, affordable premium. The uptrading in the market continues.

Therefore, if you see the volume impact in the market, it really is economy variants that are continuing to lose. We believe that the dynamics, the underlying fundamentals of population income are there, and that the category development is actually pretty healthy. We also have indications, but of course, this is not for me to comment further on, that the Petropolis competitor is really struggling somewhat. Therefore, the market dynamics as such are really conducive to further category development and shifting towards mainstream and premium. This is exactly what we have been championing for so many years. It’s also important to realize that Heineken Brazil in aggregate continues to gain market share and that Amstel and Heineken continue to do so as well.

Within a subdued market context in the quarter, we actually see a continued strengthening of our portfolio, now also with Eisenbahn as a third brand, early days, but coming into default. I believe that actually what we see is a temporary adjustment of the market. What Mauricio always tells me is that Brazil is a very fast market. It can go up and down relatively quickly because people are agile in how they adjust. We’re hoping that once the uncertainty is over, we actually see a continuation of the momentum in Brazil. In Mexico, I think all of this is also true, but at way lower levels. We believe that there’s still a bit of a weaker consumer sentiment in Mexico, but also there, the beer category growth was a bit in decline, but way less pronounced. We see healthy competitive dynamics between our main competitor and ourselves.

We see the early signs of premiumization also happening in that market. Overall, zooming out, we don’t see any change to our strategy or to the potential in both markets, Simon, which for us is very important because otherwise, of course, that is a different adjustment that we need to take. Now on to the UK. The UK was actually a very good performance for us. I don’t have the top numbers at hand, but you will have seen from the announcement that our growth in the UK was pretty good. Organic revenue growth grew by a mid-single digit, and beer volume was also up low single digits. Both were outperforming the market. Cruzcampo was again the champion in its field. Very strong trajectory, but we also saw, for example, Murphy Stout and Snyder really starting to drive the further performance.

On UK stocks, I think we need to get back to you, Simon. Usually, I have that at hand, but I don’t at the moment.

No worries, Harold. Thanks ever so much.

Call Operator: The next question goes to Jen Cross of BNP Paribas. Jen, please go ahead.

Good morning, Harold. A couple of questions from me. Just first on COGS, could you give us any early indication of kind of directionally what you think the outlook might be for variable costs per hectolitre in 2026? Particularly with respect to transactional effects, I think you might have had quite long hedges, particularly in Mexico. Any color there would be very helpful. In Vietnam, performance looks like it continues to be very strong. Just an update on what you’re seeing in the market there. With respect to Q4, if we just add on, obviously, you’ve got a bit of a headwind from the later timing of Chinese New Year. Any indication of how significant that might be for the quarter would be very helpful. Thank you.

Harold van den Broek, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken: Yeah. Hey, Jen, I really am not going to go into the forward-looking statement at this moment in time. It feels a bit, let’s call it childish not to do that because actually on the capital markets event tomorrow, I am going to do that. Hopefully, you can wait a day and look there in how we think about input cost outlook. Currency hedges, I can give you a bit of an early indication on. Usually what we do, as you know, we’re hedging about 12 to 18 months out. We indeed are trying to time it right. We have taken quite extended cover in Mexico at this moment in time. Brazil, a little bit less at this moment in time. We’re staying well within the policy range, and therefore, there is nothing really noteworthy to call out. On commodities, I’m afraid, tomorrow is the day.

Let me therefore go to Vietnam. As we said, we’re actually very pleased with our performance in Vietnam. Market share continues to go up. You see the substitution of Tiger with Heineken that continues to accelerate, 40% up this quarter. Really fantastic how the team is adjusting its portfolio. La Route also now growing in mainstream. The momentum we feel is with us and very confident. You’re right to point out that that will be into next year, and therefore, there will not be a pre-stocking sell-in of that this year, which will have a significant impact. The other thing to note is that, of course, the Degree 100 is now starting to comp. We believe that Vietnam will be seeing a lower growth rate simply because of the year-on-year comparison. Underlying and in terms of its momentum dynamics, we are feeling very good about Vietnam.

Thank you.

Call Operator: The next question goes to Olivia Nicolai of Goldman Sachs. Olivia, please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, Harold, Tristan. Just to follow up, first of all, on Europe, on your volumes performance, you mentioned the volumes impact on the retail reputation. You also mentioned some share losses in countries like Poland. How do you explain the general market softness? Is it cyclical? Is it macro-driven or is it a bit more structural? Secondly, to stay on the topic of Europe, Heineken has invested in reusable packaging in many emerging markets. How do you think about this format in Europe in the context of the updated packaging regulation, and how material could it be for your margins in the long run?

Harold van den Broek, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken: Let me first comment on the general performance in Europe. I’m glad you asked the question because whilst we like to think about Europe as a certain homogeneous market, it is important to call out the differences between the markets. The general softness that we see is not universally true in Europe. We really see two markets that are quite pronounced. First, and it’s a big one for us, is Poland, where the beer category is down, mid to high single digit, let me call it like that. We do see that this is general consumer sentiment because we also see similar levels of market decline in other categories, like for example, in carbonated soft drinks, similar levels. Water, even more pronounced than that, high double digit. Of course, ice cream was terribly poor.

We’re just looking at it for a summer effect or something, but that was really terrible in Poland as well. That does seem to be something with the Polish consumer. Don’t really know why, but there is really a general weak economic sentiment there. On top of that, let me not hide behind that fact, we are losing market share. That is something that we are not pleased about, and the teams are working night and day to address that. In a big market, that’s a double dip for us, both consumer sentiment, but also share losses. The other point, which links a little bit to your packaging point, is that we really underestimated the consumer impact of the deposit return scheme on cans in Austria. As you know, Austria is also a very big market for us.

The proportionate impact was that the can market is dropping like 30% to 40% in the initial stages and has not bounced back subsequently, even though the deposit scheme is relatively not a big amount of money. Those two very large markets really hurt the general category growth. You also see opportunities. We spoke earlier about a beautiful Spain, Portugal, UK, where the general economic sentiment is a little bit more positive. Also in France, the category is in growth, but we are not for the reasons that we well articulated. For us, Europe is really, yes, we try to make that one as much as we can to leverage skill and scale. The consumer trends and consumer sentiments, the categories and portfolio have very different dynamics market by market. It’s important to not generalize on that. To your point, what is there for cyclical and structural?

I think that really depends market by market. We are concerned somewhat about the impact that, for example, deposit return schemes and just excise have because it just makes beer more expensive, and that does weigh on consumer sentiment. When affordability is a key concern across categories for markets, this is something that we, but also hopefully working together with governments, should address because a healthy industry is good, not only for us, but for the wider employment that we generate in Europe as well. To your second point about packaging, this is something that we always look into. In the end, it starts with consumer preference and consumer choice. What we currently see is that cans is actually a consumer-preferred format, and that’s where we see where the growth is at this moment in time.

Thank you very much.

Call Operator: The next question goes to Andrea Pistacchi of BofA Securities. Andrea, please go ahead. Andrea, your line is open. Moving on to the next question from Trevor J. Stirling from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Trevor, please go ahead.

Harold van den Broek, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken: Good morning, Harold. Harold, it might be a little bit too early, but if I look forward to 2025 margins and just extrapolating from your guidance of, let’s say, low single digits EBIT growth, sorry, 4%-ish EBIT growth, 4% to 5%, low single digit revenue growth, you’re looking at probably some modest margin expansion. On the other side, we’ve got the $500 million gross savings, which is more like 170 bps of margin expansion. Where does the offset come in? Where’s the pressure in the cost base that’s stopping more of that gross saving flowing to the bottom line? Yeah. Indeed, Trevor, I think you’re going to be delighted with my productivity presentation tomorrow if we’re able to welcome you here to Seville because it’s a very understandable question, Trevor. First, let me just be quick, and therefore, we can talk about it more tomorrow if necessary.

Indeed, we are very cognizant of the fact that margin expansion is important to us. Certainly, in the context of more currency volatility, that needs to happen. There are two factors driving the flow through on gross savings. The first one is volume deleverage. Also, what you hear us say is that volumes will be down this year, moderately so, but still. That has an impact, of course, weighted market by market, but that can have a quite significant impact on how much gross savings you need to offset that. The second thing, and probably as importantly, is that we continue to invest in our business. We really continue to support our brands. We put serious dollars behind our leading brands, but also the focus markets in our portfolio.

We continue to invest quite significantly in digitizing our business to make sure that we’re ready to capture both on growth, but also in terms of efficiency, the opportunities that that offers. There is still an ongoing investment strategy in our business, hopefully as much as possible disciplined and right-sized. Those are the two important drivers about why you don’t see a bigger flow through. Let me also be a bit upbeat about that. I’m super happy that we are confident enough to deliver these gross savings because it’s a very important part of how we adjust to economic realities and still being able to sharpen our portfolio and future-proof this company.

Thank you very much, Harold. I look forward to more discussions tomorrow.

Yes.

Call Operator: Thank you. We have no further questions. I’ll hand back to Tristan for any closing comments.

Tristan, Host/Moderator, Heineken: Thank you, Nadia. Thank you, Harold. As a reminder, as Harold and Trevor just alluded to already, tomorrow we will have our capital markets event here in Seville, Spain. We will also be sending out a press release tomorrow morning regarding the capital markets event at 7:00 A.M. Central European Time. For those who are here, we will see you this evening and looking forward to it. For those who can’t make it, please register on our website, theheinekencompany.com, into the investor tab for the CME that is starting at 9:00 A.M. Central European Time tomorrow. Looking forward to it. Thank you very much.

Call Operator: Thank you. This now concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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