Earnings call transcript: LoanDepot misses Q4 2024 EPS, stock falls

LoanDepot Inc. reported a disappointing earnings performance for Q4 2024, with actual earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.17, significantly missing the forecasted EPS of -$0.01. This resulted in a sharp aftermarket stock decline of 12.42% to $1.41. The company reported revenue of $257 million, falling short of the $310.09 million forecast. Despite these setbacks, LoanDepot highlighted strategic initiatives aimed at future growth. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s financial health score is currently rated as WEAK, with particularly concerning metrics in profitability and cash flow management.

Key Takeaways

• LoanDepot’s Q4 2024 EPS of -$0.17 missed the forecast by a wide margin.
• Revenue for the quarter was $257 million, below the expected $310.09 million.
• Stock plummeted 12.42% in aftermarket trading following the earnings release.
• The company completed its Vision 2025 strategic program and launched Project NorthStar.
• Loan origination volume rose 34% year-over-year to $7.2 billion.

Company Performance

LoanDepot’s performance in Q4 2024 was marked by a notable increase in loan origination volume, which rose 34% year-over-year to $7.2 billion. Despite this growth, the company’s financial results were overshadowed by a larger-than-expected adjusted net loss of $47 million, compared to a $27 million loss in the same quarter of the previous year. The mortgage market’s generational lows continue to challenge the company’s recovery efforts. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company has been quickly burning through cash, with a negative free cash flow yield of -216% in the last twelve months.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $257 million, down from the forecasted $310.09 million.
• Adjusted Net Loss: $47 million, compared to $27 million in Q4 2023.
• Pull-through weighted rate lock volume: $5.6 billion, a 27% increase year-over-year.
• Loan origination volume: $7.2 billion, a 34% increase year-over-year.
• Cash position: $422 million at the end of the quarter.

Earnings vs. Forecast

LoanDepot reported an EPS of -$0.17, missing the forecast of -$0.01 by a significant margin. This represents a substantial earnings surprise, reflecting ongoing challenges in the mortgage market. Revenue also fell short of expectations, coming in at $257 million against a forecast of $310.09 million.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, LoanDepot’s stock dropped by 12.42% in aftermarket trading to $1.41. This decline reflects investor disappointment with the company’s financial performance and the missed earnings expectations. The stock is now trading near its 52-week low, highlighting the market’s cautious sentiment. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently undervalued compared to its Fair Value, though investors should note the company’s high beta of 2.99, indicating significant price volatility. Get access to 10+ additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics with an InvestingPro subscription.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, LoanDepot anticipates pull-through weighted lock volume for Q1 2025 to be between $4.8 billion and $5.8 billion. The company expects origination volume for the same period to range from $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion, with a pull-through weighted gain on sale margin of 320-340 basis points. LoanDepot continues to invest in technology and joint ventures to drive future growth. However, InvestingPro data shows analysts do not anticipate profitability this year, despite two analysts revising their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period. For detailed analysis and expert insights, access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.

Executive Commentary

CEO Frank Martell expressed optimism about the company’s future, stating, "When the market inevitably recovers, I believe the company is well positioned to become the lender of choice for the American homeowner." He emphasized the centrality of homeownership to the American dream. CFO Dave Hayes noted the expected seasonal decline in lock volumes, aligning with normal business trends.

Risks and Challenges

• Continued pressure from a depressed mortgage market.
• Potential for further declines in refinance volumes.
• Challenges in maintaining profitability given the current economic climate.
• Risks associated with new strategic initiatives and technology investments.
• Competitive pressures in the mortgage lending industry.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about LoanDepot’s liquidity strategy and its efforts to build and maintain servicing assets. The company confirmed its focus on high liquidity levels and strategic asset management. Additionally, investments in technology and joint ventures were highlighted as key areas for future growth.

Full transcript - Loandepot Inc (LDI) Q4 2024:

Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and welcome to LoanDepot’s Year End and Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Gerhard Erdely, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Gerhard Erdely, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, LoanDepot: Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our year end and fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call may include forward looking statements regarding the company’s operating and financial performance in future periods. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward looking statements, including but not limited to guidance to our pull through weighted rate lock volume, origination volume, pull through weighted gain on sale margin and expense trends. These statements are based on the company’s current expectations and available information. Actual results for future periods may differ materially from these forward looking statements due to risks or other factors that are described in the Risk Factors section of our filings with the SEC.

Our presentation today contains certain non GAAP financial measures that we believe provide additional insight into analyzing and benchmarking the performance and value of our business and facilitating company to company operating performance comparisons. For more details on these non GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today’s earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.loandepot.com. A webcast and a transcript of this call will be posted on our website after the conclusion of this call. On today’s call, we have LoanDepot President and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Martell and Chief Financial Officer, Dave Hayes, to provide an overview of our quarter as well as our financial and operational results, outlook and to answer your questions. We are also joined by Chief Investment Officer, Jeff DeGurion and LDI Mortgage President, Jeff Walsh to help address any questions you might have after our prepared remarks.

And with that, I’ll turn things over to Frank to get us started. Frank?

Frank Martell, President and Chief Executive Officer, LoanDepot: Thank you, Gerhard. I appreciate everybody taking the time to join us on this call today. 2024 was a year of significant progress for loanDepot, particularly with the completion of our Vision 2025 strategic program. Vision 2025 was born from the fires of one of the most significant contractions in the housing and mortgage markets in recent memory. As you may recall, total market origination fell nearly 50% from 2021 to 2022, led by refinance volumes falling almost 75%.

The mortgage market continued to remain depressed in 2023 and 2024 with volumes approaching generational lows. The strategic imperatives of Vision 2025 served as our roadmap for successfully navigating this historic downturn. While a portion of Vision 2025 was successful or was focused on fundamentally resetting our cost structure and organization to better align with a much smaller market, the strategy also addressed important investments in people, process, product and technology. I expect that these investments will enable loanDepot to emerge from the market downturn a more efficient and durable company. The company’s return to profitability during the third quarter marked the successful completion of Vision 2025.

With the announcement of a new three year plan Project NorthStar, it is the logical time for me to make way for a new leader. We recently announced the details of the transition, which confirmed that I will step down as CEO and Board member effective with our annual meeting of stockholders on June 4. After the annual meeting, I will continue to support loanDepot as an advisor to the Board. During my remaining time with loanDepot, I look forward to working tirelessly to support our Founder and Board Chair, Anthony Shetty, Wes agreed to return to the company as Executive Chairman of Mortgage Originations, leading our origination, servicing, operations and related activities. The successful completion of Vision 2025 was a critical step in the company’s evolution.

I’d like to express my deepest appreciation for Team LoanDepot for all their hard work and effort over the past several years executing the plan. We have a truly exceptional team that approaches every single day with the goal of making the dream of homeownership a reality for our customers. As we look forward, we believe that we are positioned to accelerate revenue growth and continue our progress towards sustainable profitability as we pivot toward the next chapter in the loanDepot story. The housing and mortgage markets remain challenged no doubt, but they are substantial in size and hold many opportunities for loanDepot to grow and to realize its strategic objectives. When the market inevitably recovers, I believe the company is well positioned to become the lender of choice for the American homeowner to buy, manage and optimize their home ownership journey.

In closing, I want to thank every member of Team LoanDepot, our critical business partners and our Board of Directors for their support, without which we could not have achieved the substantial critical progress the company has made over the past three years. With that, I will now turn the call over to Dave who will take us through our financial results in more detail. Thanks, Frank, and good afternoon, everyone. In the interest of time,

Dave Hayes, Chief Financial Officer, LoanDepot: I’ll focus my comments on the quarterly results. We reported an adjusted net loss of $47,000,000 in the fourth quarter compared to an adjusted net loss of $27,000,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three due primarily to higher volume related expenses offset somewhat by higher adjusted revenues. As you might know, the accounting for loan origination is subject to timing with much of the revenue recognized at the time of the interest rate law and much of the expense recognized at the time of the origination. A meaningful increase or decrease in volume from quarter to quarter such as we saw from the third to fourth quarter can have a noticeable impact on our financial results. During the fourth quarter, pull through weighted rate lock volume was 5,600,000,000 which represented a 27% increase from the prior year’s volume of $4,400,000,000 and reflected the impact of our investment in recruiting and developing our loan officers.

Rate lock volume came in within guidance we issued last quarter of 5,500,000,000 to $7,500,000,000 and contributed to adjusted total revenue of $267,000,000 compared to $251,000,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. Our pull through weighted gain on sale margin for the fourth quarter came in at three thirty four basis points above our guidance of two ninety five to three zero five basis points and compared to two ninety six basis points in the prior year. Our higher gain on sale margin primarily benefited from wider overall margins across our product set and a channel mix shift away from JV toward our retail and direct channels. Our loan origination volume was $7,200,000,000 for the quarter, an increase of 34% from the prior year’s volumes of $5,400,000,000 The increase reflected the pickup in lock activity during the third quarter, stemming from a temporary decrease in market rates. This increased lock volume was concentrated in September and therefore resulted in closings during the fourth quarter.

This was also within the guidance we issued last quarter of between $6,000,000,000 and $8,000,000,000 Servicing fee income decreased from $132,000,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three to $108,000,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four and is in line with this decrease in the size of the portfolio resulting from the second quarter bulk sales. We hedge our servicing portfolio, so we do not record the full impact of the changes in fair value and the results of our operations. We believe the strategy protects against volatility in our earnings and liquidity. Our strategy for hedging the servicing portfolio is dynamic and we adjust our hedge positions in reaction to changing interest rate environments. Our total expenses for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four increased by $39,000,000 or 13% from the prior year.

The primary drivers of the increase were higher volume related commission, direct origination and marketing expenses. Looking ahead to the first quarter, we expect pull through weighted lock volume of between $4,800,000,000 and $5,800,000,000 and origination volume of between $4,500,000,000 and $5,500,000,000 Volume guidance reflects the seasonal decrease in purchase activity. We expect our first quarter pull through weighted gain on sale margin to be between three twenty and three forty basis points. Our total expenses are expected to decline in the first quarter, primarily driven by lower volume related expenses and also lower G and A expenses. Our cost reset focused on creating positive operating leverage and balance sheet management activities have significantly reduced our risk profile and chartered a path towards profitability while allowing us to maintain a strong liquidity position.

We ended the quarter with $422,000,000 in cash. We grew revenue, expanded margins, reduced our corporate debt and made important investments in productivity initiatives that benefited both the quarter and the year. Importantly, during the third quarter, we demonstrated our significant operational progress by achieving profitability during a period of modest market improvement, and we believe we are well positioned to capture the benefits when the market eventually recovers. Our investments in products and operating leverage will provide the foundation for additional momentum in 2025 and beyond. With that, we’re ready to turn it back over to the operator for Q and A.

Operator?

Conference Operator: Thank you. And we will now begin the question and answer session. And your first question comes from the line of Doug Harter with UBS. Your line is open.

Doug Harter, Analyst, UBS: Thanks. Can you talk about how you’re viewing your current cash liquidity situation and kind of as part of that, what you would expect for servicing balances over the course of 2025?

Dave Hayes, Chief Financial Officer, LoanDepot: Yes. Hey Doug, it’s David Hayes. As you guys know, we’ve talked about this over past quarters that we have maintained heightened levels of liquidity considering the challenging mortgage market. And we expect to maintain, heightened levels of liquidity over that period. We think we’re running at excess liquidity levels.

And so, we’ve talked before about maintaining at least a 5% or around a 5% of assets of liquidity is sort of a target in this challenging market. And I think that’s something we’ll aim to do over the course of 2025.

Doug Harter, Analyst, UBS: Got it. And then I guess just on the MSR outlook, kind of how you think that’ll play out? Do you expect more sales or kind of regular way kind of flow agreements?

Dave Hayes, Chief Financial Officer, LoanDepot: Yes. No, I think our view is we’re going to try to maintain and build the servicing asset. We view that as a very strategic asset for the company. But obviously, in periodic times over the course of the last few years, we’ve had to sell that from time to time to meet some liquidity needs. But for now, we’re going to continue to try to invest and grow that asset.

Doug Harter, Analyst, UBS: Great. Thank you.

Conference Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Derek Summers with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Derek Summers, Analyst, Jefferies: Hi, good afternoon. Could you speak to what the drivers of the sequential increase in the G and A expense and servicing expense were?

Dave Hayes, Chief Financial Officer, LoanDepot: Yes. The biggest is that G and A was a bit kind of subsidized last quarter. We had a big insurance recovery related to, in the third quarter related to the cyber event. We took a large reserve in the second quarter and got the insurance recovery in the third quarter. So that was kind of understating expenses.

So that’s kind of a return to normalization in the fourth quarter. And then generally, just in expense profile, we talked about investing in LOs and operations and carrying excess capacity. So that’s also impacted a little bit of the fourth quarter. That’s largely the explanation for the sequential change on that front. From a servicing perspective, I think it’s just the normal seasonality of the portfolio.

We have seen a little bit of a tick up in our delinquency rate, which is attracting a little more expenses from a servicing perspective. But they’re still well below historical norms. They’re kind of coming off a historical norm perspective. So no concerns from that perspective on our end.

Derek Summers, Analyst, Jefferies: Got it. And just in terms of the volume guidance for 1Q, kind of what kind of backdrop are you embedding in that guidance? And how does that compare to third party estimates?

Dave Hayes, Chief Financial Officer, LoanDepot: Yeah. So we’re obviously setting our guidance off our expectations of sort of our LO counts and a lot of the investments we’ve made into the business. So we are expecting, locks to come down sequentially, kind of in line with normal seasonality in the business. That being said, I think if you look at some of the third party estimates, they’re showing a more significant decline sequentially. And so, we are hopeful that we can pick up some share gain in that period.

Derek Summers, Analyst, Jefferies: Okay. Thank you for taking my questions.

Conference Operator: And your next question comes from the line of John Davis with Raymond James. Your line is open.

John Davis, Analyst, Raymond James: Hey, guys. Taylor on for JD. Maybe just to start on your hiring expense plans. In 2025 with the expected rebound in mortgage originations, just how should we think about the operating leverage of the business going to next year assuming the increase in mortgage originations does in fact pay out play out?

Dave Hayes, Chief Financial Officer, LoanDepot: Yes. Like I said, we’ve been investing strategically over the course of the third and fourth quarter into our kind of revenue generating expense side or LOs and our operations team. And if we lay that against, let’s say, the MBA or the mortgage growth expectations and some of the third party, we would naturally expect the operating leverage to increase. We find LO productivity to get more productive as refinance markets start to materialize. So, we should see better pull through on a revenue to profitability perspective in that regard.

And then just generally speaking, it’s our expense perspective, that’s where the hiring will be for the course of 2025. We’re not expecting any significant back office or G and A expenses, in fact, modest reductions on that front.

John Davis, Analyst, Raymond James: Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then just one more. On Project NorthStar, just obviously early days here.

But just curious if you’ve if there’s any updates with any of the initiatives, whether that’d be traction in expanding geographies, JVs, cost saves or anything else? Thanks.

Frank Martell, President and Chief Executive Officer, LoanDepot: Yes. I’ll handle that. Look, I think Project Northstar, as you know, was unveiled last quarter. So, it’s in formative stages, but we’re already investing in the technology platforms that will enable a lot of our operating efficiency and reduced cycle times and improved customer experience. So a number of those are in flight and we expect those to be progressively more impactful as we get into this year and certainly next year.

So I think that’s all in good order. I think we’ve also announced two new JVs. Maybe Jeff can talk a little bit about those because we expect those to come online over the course of next year as well. But Jeff, why don’t you? Yes.

We are this is Jeff Walsh. We’re actively onboarding now our partnership with Smith Douglas and with Onyx Homes. And we fully anticipate having those onboarded in 2025 fully and fully ramped in 2026 and also looking for additional opportunities in that space aggressively.

John Davis, Analyst, Raymond James: Got it. Thanks guys.

Conference Operator: And with no further questions at this time, Mr. Frank Martel, I will turn the call back over to you.

Frank Martell, President and Chief Executive Officer, LoanDepot: Thanks, Abby. Look, on behalf of Dave Gearhart, Jeff Walsh and Jeff DeGurion and the rest of our team, I want to thank everybody for joining us again today. I’m proud of the dedication, resiliency and accomplishments of Team LoanDepot. The completion of Vision 2025 represents a significant and hard fought victory for the company, and Project Northstar I believe lays the foundation for a brighter future as the mortgage market comes back and it certainly will come back, it’s a big market. Home is everything and it’s central to the American dream.

I believe the company is really well positioned to meet the needs of a changing demographic of homeowners and homebuyers through our unique products and Team LoanDepot’s direct engagement with our customers. So thanks again to everybody for joining the call. I appreciate your support and the call will conclude now.

Conference Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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