Earnings call transcript: M. Dias Branco Q3 2025 reveals strong EPS surprise

In its Q3 2025 earnings call, M. Dias Branco reported a notable earnings per share (EPS) of 0.6576, surpassing analyst expectations of 0.5621 by 16.99%. However, despite this earnings beat, the company's stock fell by 10.73% in the open market, closing at approximately 26.12, down from 29.26. The revenue slightly missed forecasts, coming in at 2.78 billion BRL against the expected 2.79 billion BRL, a minor -0.36% surprise. According to InvestingPro data, this decline comes despite M. Dias Branco being potentially undervalued, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of just 13.09 and showing a strong 25.34% price return over the past six months.

Key Takeaways

• EPS beat expectations with a 16.99% surprise.
• Stock price declined by 10.73% post-earnings announcement.
• Revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, despite a slight miss on forecasts.
• Significant market share gains in Uruguay for pasta and cookies.
• Cash generation increased significantly, with a net cash position of 721 million BRL.

Company Performance

M. Dias Branco demonstrated robust performance in Q3 2025, with a net revenue of 2.8 billion BRL, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase. The company's EBITDA rose by 39% to 318 million BRL, while net income surged by 73% to 216 million BRL. This growth is attributed to strategic expansions and product innovations, particularly in the international markets like Uruguay.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: 2.8 billion BRL, a 16% increase year-over-year.
• Earnings per share: 0.6576, a 16.99% surprise over forecasts.
• EBITDA: 318 million BRL, a 39% increase year-over-year.
• Net income: 216 million BRL, a 73% increase year-over-year.
• Cash generation: 530 million BRL, significantly up from last year.

Earnings vs. Forecast

M. Dias Branco exceeded EPS expectations with a 16.99% surprise, reporting 0.6576 against a forecast of 0.5621. However, revenue slightly missed the forecast by 0.36%, coming in at 2.78 billion BRL versus 2.79 billion BRL expected. This mixed result may have contributed to the stock's decline.

Market Reaction

Despite the strong earnings performance, the stock fell by 10.73% in the open market, closing significantly lower. This decline may reflect investor concerns over future revenue growth or broader market conditions, despite the company's operational success.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, M. Dias Branco plans to focus on volume recovery and continued marketing investments. The company aims to reduce SG&A expenses to 20% of revenue and expects cost reductions in Q4. Long-term strategies include maintaining margin improvements and expanding market presence.

Executive Commentary

Fabio Cefali, an executive, noted, "We recovered market share compared to the second to the third quarter in the two principal categories." Gustavo López Teodosio added, "Our vision does not make sense for the company to generate a higher EBITDA than we had in the past," highlighting a focus on sustainable growth.

Risks and Challenges

• Potential macroeconomic pressures affecting consumer demand.
• Supply chain disruptions impacting raw material availability.
• Competitive pressures in the domestic and international markets.
• Currency fluctuations affecting international operations.
• Regulatory changes impacting operational costs.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the company's pricing strategies and raw material hedging. Executives also addressed questions on potential capital allocation, including dividends and inorganic growth opportunities, and clarified expectations for future tax rates.

Full transcript - M Dias Branco SA (MDIA3) Q3 2025:

Conference Moderator, M. Dias Branco: Morning. Welcome to the video conference of M. Dias Branco with reference to the results of the third quarter of 2025. We have with us present today Gustavo López Teodosio, Vice President of Investments and Controller, and Fabio Cefali, Director of New Business and Relations with Investors. We inform that this event will be recorded and that during the presentation of the company, all of the participants will be connected only as listeners. After that, we will open up the question and answer session for analysts and investors. The translation is in vest clicking on the button "Interpretation." For those who are listening to the conversation in English, the original audio in Portuguese can be silenced clicking on "Mute Original Audio" in the lower part of your screen. The transmission is also being done simultaneously in YouTube at www.youtube.com.

We'd also like to clarify that any declarations that may be made during this teleconference relative to the perspectives of business of M. Dias Branco, projections and operational goals, operational and financial goals constitute beliefs and premises of the company, of the management of the company based on information currently available. They involve risks and uncertainties and premises as they refer to future events which may or may not occur. Investors should understand that economic conditions in the industry and other operational factors may materially affect the future results of M. Dias Branco and generate results which are materially different than those mentioned in future considerations. I'd now like to pass the word to Gustavo, who will start the presentation. Gustavo, please go ahead.

Gustavo López Teodosio, Vice President of Investments and Controller, M. Dias Branco: Good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to have you once again with us for the teleconference. First of all, I'd like to thank the more than 17,000 employees of M. Dias Branco for the dedication and the commitment to the company in this quarter, especially when compared to the previous quarters. We had a growth of 16% in revenue, 73% in net revenue. We are now going into this quarter with talking to you about this and with a focus on execution. The results prove that we have the highest level of net revenue and with a large presence in the points of sale, and aligned with the demands of our clients and investors.

We reached BRL 2.8 billion in net revenue with a volume of 483 tons, growth of 15% versus the third quarter of the previous year, which totaled BRL 318 million of EBITDA, a growth of 39% in relation to the previous year, with a margin of 11.4%, BRL 216 million of net revenue, a growth of 73% year on year. Most strongly, resilience in our results. The cash generation was very in growth expressively, with BRL 530 million, eight times higher than in the same quarter of last year, supported by the liberation of BRL 25 million in working capital. We closed with BRL 2.5 billion, BRL 721 million in net cash, as you've seen, principally almost 70% on long-term debt, reaffirming once again for the eighth consecutive year, eight consecutive years.

Looking at the ESG, we also advanced with the reduction of residues and diversity in the transparency portal of the MPAC. We've grown with quality and increasing our competitiveness. I'm now going to pass this over to Fabio to give sequence to the presentation, and I'll be back for the question and answer session. Fabio, go ahead. Good morning to everyone. This is Gustavo. Thank you, Fabio, for the introduction. I'm going to continue with the material, and afterwards, we'll go back to the questions and answers session. Starting off with the first slide summarizing the numbers, as Gustavo already passed over some of them, so I'm going to complement them. We're looking at the two first columns, which show net revenue and volume. We see there was growth in both variables in all of the comparisons.

Net revenue grew in relation to the third quarter of 2024 and grew in relation to the second quarter of 2025. The year to date, it is BRL 7.7 billion, which is a growth of 8%. Volume also grew in the quarter when compared to the same quarter last year and compared to the second quarter, and also in comparison with the previous year and the year to date. This also demonstrates that all of our plan of recovery of growth with consistency and consequently with gain in market share are happening. Going to the next two variables of profitability, EBITDA and net revenue, we see here that the EBITDA in the quarter grew 39% versus the same period last year and fell 8% compared to the previous quarter, and it is slightly below the year to date, 2024 year to date number.

Net revenue, as Gustavo mentioned, grew by 73% compared to last year, was stable compared to the second quarter, and went up 7% in the year to date compared to the previous year. Strong cash generation, BRL 530 million generated in the third quarter, eight times more than in the same quarter of last year, and 28% higher than the second quarter of this year. In the year to date, 194% better than in the same period of last year. This cash generation, we're going to more detail going forward, was the result of the EBITDA generated in this quarter, plus several hundred million in capital and working capital.

Looking at the chapter of the market and net revenue, I'm going to start with the market information, which is always important to point out that in this slide here, we are seeing information of the cookies and pasta markets and not the M. Dias Branco numbers. The first message that we have here is that both markets, cookies and pasta, have grown in value compared to last year and even compared to the previous quarter. Cookies grew by 3% in value compared to the last year and 5% in the previous quarter, and pasta 6% and 2% respectively. The pasta market shows growth in all comparisons. It grows in volume compared to last year. It grows in volume compared to the previous quarter. Units sold also grew. The average price of pasta was 3% higher than last year and 1% below in the previous quarter.

Why did it fall? Because the principal commodity that we use is wheat flour, and wheat flour had a fall in price from the second to third quarter. Looking to the cookie market, we see that in the comparison with last year, there was a reduction in volume, a reduction in the number of units sold. We understand that this fall in volume in units sold is related to the average price, which grew by 8%. When we look at the value sold, it is a product of price increases of 8%, which wound up generating a retraction of volume. In the reading of the short term is that from the second to the third quarter, we see that the market for cookies has grown 4% in volume from the second to third quarter. From our two principal markets is that they continued growing, especially the pasta market.

Now the numbers for M. Dias overall. This was the third consecutive quarter that showed growth in net revenue, always in the comparison year on year. In the first quarter, it went up by 3%. The second quarter, it grew by 4%, and in the third quarter, by 16% compared to the third quarter of 2024. Breaking this net revenue down into volume and average price, the volumes grew by 15% compared to last year. They grew 6% compared to the previous quarter. In the year to date, we grew by 1%. The average price went up compared to the previous quarter. One also grew in the year on year to year and showed a fall of 3% compared to the second quarter of 2025. This fall in 3% is largely explained by the retraction of EBITDA from the second to the third quarter.

Looking here at the revenue column of M. Dias Branco, looking at details of the groups and categories, the first and most relevant in our results were the principal products, which are cookies, pasta and margins, oil and wheat, which are the wheat flour, and the other adjacencies, which are cakes, snacks, mixtures, mixes, which are the newest parts of our portfolio with a possible growth that's higher. When we look at these different groups and categories, we see that in the comparison last year, there was double-digit growth in both in the principal products and in the refined oils and also in the adjacencies. Compared to the previous quarter, the principal products grew. Wheat flour also grew, and the adjacencies were stable. The positive highlight here was in healthy foods and snacks and mixes and cakes.

In the last column, all three categories grew 7%, 11%, and 16%. Remembering here that the change that we've done in the beginning of the year in our structure, in our commercial structure, we created four units, four business units. Each one has a commercial leader, 100% focused on that group. There's a team that's looking at the principal products, one team looking at Daniel's team, looking at food service. Giotto is with the healthy products and snacks, and Cesar with international area and ID, who works with cookies, pasta, and margins. The next slide, I'm going to show you what happened in each one of these business units in the last quarter. Looking here at the principal products, which is this was the second consecutive quarter of growth in net revenue, 3% in the second quarter and 16% in the third quarter compared to last year.

Several highlights of these with the actions underway were focused greatly on sell-out, the sell-in as a consequence of the sell-out. As he mentioned at the beginning of the call, we are increasing our presence in the points of sale. We improved our commercial plan, which works quarter by quarter, which also is true of the interaction with the retailers, more marketing actions to increase the turnover of our products at the point of sale, and also recover share. We recovered market share compared to the second to the third quarter in the two principal categories of M. Dias Branco, which are cookies and pasta. Here are some examples of the actions which are underway.

A lot of investment in the point of sale, examples with Piraqué, a combination of Piraqué and Adria, Piraqué and Fortaleza, especially in the Northeast, three of our principal brands which have all presented growth, plus more sampling at the point of sale where you were getting closer and closer to consumers, permitting an increase in the turnover in our stores. A highlight of one of our brands of cookies, which is Amodi, which is a sub-brand of Rochester, which has had very important growth and results. In the food service category, the portfolio has grown specifically and is specific for the B2B clients, more exposure in fairs and events which are dedicated to this type of distribution channel.

An approach which is segmented by channels, restaurants, pizzerias, restaurants, and so we're increasing our participation with specialized distributors in food service. We have a different approach, a group of action which has shown itself to be effective and which is what we see in the net revenue in the graph above. This is the third quarter, third consecutive quarter in which this business unit has shown growth compared to the previous year, 17% in the first quarter, 3% in the second quarter, and 15% now in the third quarter. In the international subject, we have a little more of a look at this quarter in the Las Acacias, which is our pasta brand that we acquired at the end of 2022. Originally, it was a company, a pasta company.

In this quarter, we increased the portfolio for cookies and toasts, as we can see here in the pictures of our products in the corner of the slide. These biscuits are produced in our unit in Bento Gonçalves. We see more synergy in this acquisition outside of Brazil with the business that we have here in Brazil. Just tell me that if the acquisition is giving us results, one of the metrics is market share. We see that from the end of last year to September of this year, our market share in pasta in Uruguay went from 21% to 24%, and of cookies went from 10% to 15%. We already had in Uruguay other M. Dias Branco brands such as Piraqué. These cookie products such as Las Acacias are added to the cookie business that we already had in Uruguay.

The adjacencies are cakes, snacks, mixes, healthy products, and sauces and spices. This was the third consecutive quarter that we had a growth of revenue, 11% in the quarter, 13% in the third quarter. Besides being the third straight quarter of growth in revenue, it's the third quarter of double-digit growth. Here I mentioned some of the products that have permitted this growth, expressive growth, the Jasmine products and the granolas, the oats, Fit Food, chocolates, rice, etc., just to give you a few examples. Looking to the chapter of costs and expenses, here we see three important curves for our costs. Also remembering that these are information, this is market information. This is not M. Dias Branco information. The wheat price in dollars and palm oil is also in dollars, also by ton, price per ton.

We're going to start with the two variables, the two lower variables. We saw that wheat had a reduction in price in the market, both in the comparison with last year as well as in the comparison with the previous quarter. On the other hand, palm oil, which is an important consumable for cookies and biscuits, showed growth of 17% and 10% compared to the previous quarter. The dollar exchange rate, which has been present in about 60% of our total costs, we see here that there was an appreciation compared to the real compared to last year in the previous quarter. Here it's also important that as M.

Dias has a stock, an average stock, historical average stock of commodities of approximately three or four months of production, it takes a while in a scenario of lowering costs in the market for this reduction to enter into the results of M. Dias Branco. Besides having to get rid of all of the current stock, we also have the finished products to sell. There is a certain amount of time for us to see a natural time period to see this change in the market in our results. Looking here at gross margins, the gross margin for the quarter was 32.2%, similar to last year, and below what was measured in the previous quarter.

Looking at the curves above, the variable cost per kilo and the fixed cost per kilo, we started to see an improvement in the variable cost per kilo and also an improvement in the fixed cost per kilo, which shows that our plan of growth of volume is working and has already started to show a dilution of fixed costs. On the other hand, something that also converses with this dynamic of prices in the market, we see that our average price went from BRL 6.5 to BRL 5.8. What happens is that the price is changing faster than the cost of the inputs going into our cost. These numbers wind up meeting up and adjust the average EBITDA margin. At the cumulated year to date, the margin goes from 34% to 32%. The average price goes up because our costs also went up. This is more of a long-term vision.

Our expenses start off with the year to date because quarter to quarter, there's always some initiative which winds up not being rebated in the following quarters. However, we see that in the total expenses in the year to date. Last year, we did a B with BRL 1,698,000,000. Remembering that our volumes in the year to date have grown at a rate of 1%, and our total expenses grow less than 1%. So we've had a result of expenses below inflation in the period. In relative terms, comparing with net revenue of 2020, we went from 26%, 23% to 22% of net revenue. Looking at the analysis of the third quarter, we see here an increase of expenses in nominal terms from last year to this year. This has to do with the increase in volumes, which was 15%.

In the comparison with the previous quarter of BRL 565 million to BRL 616 million, we have a growth in volume, which impacts the variable expenses. The volumes went up by 5%. The recovery of some of the initiatives of marketing, trade marketing that were not done in the second quarter or in the first or second quarters of this year. We have expenses that are more or less compared to one quarter to another. If we look at the photo of the year to date, the expenses are well under control. The EBITDA for the quarter was BRL 318 million, below the EBITDA of last quarter, well below that one of the previous year. In this year to date, it is 2% below the results of the same period last year. The net revenue winds up following the same dynamic and tendency of the EBITDA.

We see here a small difference in tendencies going from the second to the third quarter. Since we have a position where net cash winds up affecting us positively, our results in terms of profitability. We have profitability that is also stable. Comparing year on year, the net revenue grows from BRL 470 million to BRL 500 million, BRL 470 million to BRL 502 million. Looking at cash generation, debts, and investments, we generate BRL 530 million in cash. Last year was BRL 67 million. In the year to date, we had BRL 1,002 million, and last year was BRL 417 million. This cash generation has to do with the results themselves and also with the liberation of BRL 250 million in working capital. The working capital comes from the suppliers, which had an increase of five days, a favorable increase for cash generation, while the other two categories, clients and stocks, were stable. Clients and stocks.

We closed the third quarter with a cash position of BRL 721,000,000, net debt, more cash than debt, and BRL 721,000,000. For the eighth year in a row, we're AAA rating from Fitch, which is the highest Fitch rating. A large part of our debt is a long-term debt. The BRL 1.8 billion in debt, BRL 1.2 billion only comes due after 2028. In the year to date, we're investing 3% more than was given last year, which also has variations quarter by quarter, which is more important to look at the vision of the year to date numbers with a highlight for information technology, especially items aimed at artificial intelligence and the increase of efficiency and productivity in our factories and distribution centers. This is our strategy. The principal highlight of this moment is to recover volume.

Talking about this quarter of last year, compared to the quarter of last year, the four business units, we see them presenting growth, consistent growth quarter after quarter. We have a growth, a volume growth plan, which is giving results. Looking at ESG, here we have our principal highlights of our three pillars: caring for the planet, believing in people, and strengthening our alliances. After that, we're looking at the question and answer session, recognizing that M. Dias Branco is one of the companies, one of the highlights, often highlighted in the Transparency Trophy, which is organized every year by Abifac. Thank you all for accompanying this first step of our call. Now we're going to the question and answer session. Thank you. We'll now start the question and answer session for investors and analysts.

If you would like to make any questions, please press the button, raise hand button. If your question was answered, you can leave the line clicking again on the same button. Our first question comes from Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual. Thiago, please go ahead. Hi, good morning to everyone. It's a pleasure to speak with you, Fabio, Fabio and Gustavo. I wanted to touch on two points. First, in relation to the dynamic of revenue, especially in what you call the principal categories, I wanted to understand and qualify a little bit better the evaluation quarter by quarter, remembering that in the previous quarter, the average price apparently had been helped by a question of mix with an increase in biscuits, with the higher cookies, with a higher price.

We look at the average prices quarter by quarter, specifically looking at categories, the core categories, if there was in any way a reversion of this effect, of this mix effect on the average price, or if there was, in fact, promotional activities. We spoke about the one-offs and one-time costs. What was the cost of these things, the weight of these things when we look at the average price? The second question is about costs.

Looking at the evolution of the principal raw materials, the unit cost, which you mentioned in this quarter, my question is, if you see a space for a more relevant cost of unit costs in the next quarter in relation to the third quarter, and if you imagine that this fall may not be so high in this quarter due to a question of strategy of hedges or stocks, if it makes sense to imagine a fall that you have already contracted a more lowering of costs in the fourth quarter. Those are my two questions. Thanks, Thiago, Gustavo. This is Gustavo. Thank you for your question.

Speaking with the second part, yes, you understood well our capacity to stock, and in terms of a hedge, the price fell prior to the, so there's a cost fall, but not in the same proportion as prices due to our capacity for storage and our position, our hedge positions. Yes, you can expect a fall in costs in the next quarter, allied with proportionally with these price reductions. We've always been the company that came out first in pricing, and at some moments, we're poorly positioned in relation to the market. The question is, what to do with pasta? Cookies has a more elastic base, and the wheat influences more the price of pastas. Even though it's not in the same proportion, we wanted to follow the reduction of prices in the market, even though the costs fell a little bit afterwards.

Just as we have a spike in a commodity, the company suffers a little bit after the rest of the market because of our hedge position. That was it. There was a disconnection, especially in pastas. That is the point. Yes, you can expect a higher fall in the wheat prices. Thank you. Our next question comes from Gustavo Coyano of Itaú BBA. Gustavo, please go ahead. Morning, Gustavo. And Fabio, thank you for taking our question. First of all, I wanted to thank, go back to the first question, to Thiago's question, and look a little more at your vision for the rationality of prices in the industry. It is clear that your costs should go down in the fourth quarter.

When you compare that with the level of stocks, the historical level of stocks of your competitors, which usually is smaller than your stocks, it helps us to understand that the deflation in costs in the industry is already happening, while we see the average prices of selloff in the industry has continued to vary quite resilient due to your competitors, which shows a rationality in the third quarter. I wanted to hear from you if it makes sense, this analysis, and if you understand that the industry continues rational, even though there is a deflation in costs. Looking at the fourth quarter, it would be good to hear from you a little bit about this perspective, how this has evolved when we look at the fourth quarter, and if this price level in the industry will maintain it relatively stable as happened in the third quarter.

That's my first question. The second question is regarding the allocation of capital. I believe you published a position of net cash, a relevant net cash position in the third quarter. It's natural that the questions will arise regarding dividends and how you're thinking about the capital structure. Is it good? If there's any opportunity for growth, inorganic growth, perhaps in some region or category that you might be able to point out to us that would make sense, and if we can take a look at where this cash will be going since that this great amount of cash that you reported in the third quarter. I'm going to start here, Fabio. Yes, the industry is quite a bit more rational than we saw last year. These reductions in prices in pastas specifically have followed the falloff in costs.

You will see that this proportion with great deal of profitability for the third quarter. Looking at the market in general, the industry is rational. Prices are going down the same proportion as costs. M. Dias Branco has been following the market, maintaining our price lines independent of our stocks. We are showing in the short term, we are having a gain in market share, both in pasta as well as in cookies through our pricing, which is closely united with the market. There is some irrationality. We do not see irrationality. Everyone is very following the commodities and exchange rate changes in a form that is quite rational. Gustavo, this is just to add to what Gustavo said.

Beyond the information in the market that we presented in this material, when we look at the most recent results of PCA, we see the two categories which are most related to the price of wheat, the pasta and the other flours, have shown reductions, sequential price reductions in line with the movement of that commodity. While the category of cookies, which beyond the wheat also has palm oil, and palm oil has recently increased in price, has shown a slight increase in price in the month of September. These movements, this information corroborates our reading that the competitive environment is rational. We're not in any type of irrational, irrationality in the market. In relation to the allocation of capital, you touched on two subjects: eventual inorganic movements. This we see from the standpoint, the strategic standpoint, the company is always attentive to any type of opportunity.

We do not have anything new regarding that. In relation to any eventual increase in distribution, it is important to remember that in recent years, our payout went from 40% of our distributable profit and it went to 80%. Just in this change, there is a distribution increase that is relevant, and the increase in profit year on year should also cause an increase in distribution of profits. In the month of September, we made a distribution, an extraordinary distribution of approximately BRL 30 million. We are constantly monitoring this situation, the facts regarding what happens in the market. If there is any decision different from that, we will communicate. Thank you, guys. Our next question comes from Lucas Fajeta from J.P. Morgan. Lucas, please go ahead. Hi. As far as expenses, what do we expect in the fourth quarter and for 2026?

I see that you explained that there are some activities that are basically held back in trade. I remember that in the past, you spoke about SG&A as a percentage of revenue getting closer to 20%. My question is, at the level of expenses, we imagine for the fourth quarter, if there will be any calendar effect or anything that's worth calling our attention to, and also what should we think about for 2026? Also, one more question, a follow-up on your costs. My question is, if this is a question, if it's only a question of stock, or if this is some type of a hedge play, especially in palm oil, which has a longer period of time to be loaded into your prices, what should we expect in terms of the loss of English vehicles in the third quarter, the fourth quarter?

I think your first, your second question has more to do with the capacity of stock and inventory that we have. Talking about in terms of, especially in pastas, we know how much we have in stock, and you already know how much we have in stock. It's a hedge position, which is very healthy. So we can consider that this question of stocks and not as a sell as position of a hedge. Looking at SG&A, we had a question of seasonal question. In the first half, we had very little investment in marketing. We had important changes in the team, both in the sales team as well as the marketing team. In February and March, we had these changes. Now we're recovering these investments in a more intense way.

The expenses that did not happen in January and February are now happening in the third quarter and should also reoccur in the fourth quarter. We look at the question of timing. From 2023 to 2024, the amount of investment will be roughly the same. We are investing approximately 2% of our net revenue. We have tried to maintain SG&A controlling inflation in absolute numbers. It has grown very little year on year. As far as the percentage of revenue, we have a flat movement, and revenue falls and is passed through the price of pasta and other commodities. It has just fallen a little bit in relation to SG&A in terms of net revenue. It is very close to our target, to 20. However, due to revenue, which has retracted, it could, for a short period of time, this percentage could be slightly above 20%.

20 continues to be our target. Thank you. Our next question comes from Enrique Bustolini from Bradesco BBI. Enrique, please go ahead. Good morning, Gustavo and Fabio. Thanks for taking my questions. I would like to, first of all, look at the question of the volume and the gain of market share that you commented on. If you could qualify a little bit between the principal categories of cookies and pastas, how was this gain in share that you saw at the end of the line? If you could comment that if this gain, if the price index is better, or if there's anything better in terms of commercial execution, which could continue to signal a recovery going forward. When we look at the data of the market, the sell-out data for pasta and cookies quarter on quarter, it was higher than your sell-in.

We should think that this is a margin for you to continue accelerating your volume in the fourth quarter sequentially. That's the first question. The second question is a follow-up of the average price. It's clear the discussion of price increases in pasta, if there was any mix effect that was important in this quarter. When we look at these categories, especially cookies, and any discussion of channels, which has affected volume and eventually impacted this line. These two questions. Thank you. Hi, Enrique. This is Fabio. I'm going to start with your second question. There was no relevant mix factor involved in this between the categories or within the categories in this quarter. Looking at the next point of your question, what we see in this recovery of market share, which is very consistent, which we've seen an evolution over the months.

At the same time, this coverage. This share gain, which is happening both in cookies as well as in pasta, in practically every region of Brazil. There is not any big concentration region by region or by channel or by region or by subcategory of product. What does this represent? What does that mean? It shows that our plan for the recovery of our growth and the recovery of our market share is working and does not depend on one channel or another or one subcategory or another. Just to give you an idea, give you an idea of what we are doing. These things that we mentioned in the second quarter, we increased our investments in marketing and trade marketing to give more turnover to our products. This involves extra points, samples, a series of things that happen at the point of sale.

This process of pricing is more robust, which accompanies the market prices. There are some moments at some places where M. Dias Branco is the first to make these movements because of its important representativeness in certain regions. In other regions, less so. However, in general, we are accompanying the market's movements, which shows that the price levels are very controlled. This winds up creating conditions for us to recover the retaking of these volumes. What you mentioned here about an eventual disconnect between sell-in and sell-out, your affirmation is correct. I will add one thing. Just to add, Enrique, I think that if the sell-out is higher than the sell-in, this shows that the market has stock or the market will be making bigger purchases in this coming quarter.

This has a lot to do with what you mentioned in the last call, is due to the different way of negotiating, less transactional with each one of our clients. Looking at the group of sell-out, the biggest execution in the store with promoters, with music, and much less depending on you look at the greater danger. I do not have my product in stock or it is getting old or reaching its sell-by date. These movements wind up showing a little bit of this change of our logic. Negotiations made much more aimed at sell-out and for sales to the consumer rather than sales to trades with no guarantee of sell-out. This change of our mentality brings us to this type of situation. A sell-out that is higher, a gain in market share when compared to sell-in. That is the reason. That was very clear. Thank you very much.

Our next question comes from Pedro Fonseca of XP, XP. Pedro, please go ahead. Good morning, Gustavo and Fabio. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to make a follow-up regarding several questions you already answered about the performance of the Q3. This looks at the we've seen other segments having a lot of when we look at the data here in the market data here and the comments from the companies, it looks that these categories are even surfing relatively well. Are you seeing some difference in performance region by region that the company used to call defense and attack regions? Do you see additional investments in trade or pricing might be different thinking about the old breakdown that the company had? That's my first question. The second question is regarding taxes. We see that one more quarter, it was lowered due to punctual one-time questions.

In Q2, when we spoke about the level of normality, it would be 15%. That should be what we expected for the year as well. That's my doubt. I imagine that 15% for the new year doesn't make sense. Please let us know what we can expect for the next year. Thank you, Pedro. I'm going to summarize a bit. We don't see any great variations. The growth is very, very well studied. This number is almost exactly the same. Region grows region by region by the same amount. We don't see any change, the need for any change, significant change compared to what's happening. What's happening in the north-northeast is what's happening in the rest of the country. Nothing that calls our attention. We didn't have any mix by region. It's the same. I think you're looking at that correctly.

You also mentioned in the U.S., Africa absorbed some of the margin. That's true. When you look at Brazil, growth is very similar region by region. Talking a little bit about the rate, we should wind up with a rate slightly below what we had suggested during next year for 5-6%. These numbers are a little bit below the accumulated inflation. Pedro Bongia, you had two events. Expected rate of 15% down to the rate of 5.5% in this quarter by any event. That's the idea of making results, making provisions and results using swaps, which generates results. Beyond that, we also had the recognition of some credits, some one-type credits, which are involving us for the rejection of the hearing. Subsequently to the effective rate. These are questions that several quarters help and several other quarters do not help as much.

Perhaps the best way would be to use a base rate of 15%. Remembering that in the past, but due to the taxation of this could increase. This is the same thing that could happen in the previous quarters. There are some in this third quarter. Okay, that's very clear. Thank you. Our next question comes from Isabella Simonato from Bank of America. Good morning, Gustavo, Fabio. I wanted to come back a little bit to the discussion about price and margins, especially from the side of cookies. You spoke quite a bit about the strategy of prices for pastas due to an increase in margins with the competitors, and you wanted to maintain a position of relative price relationship.

When we look at cookies and the spot costs, it seems that it should have supported prices in the industry a little bit higher than the 5% that you show of the market compared to the second quarter due to the dynamic of palm oil over the year, and especially the acceleration that it had in this last quarter. If you could explain a little bit more how you understand that with the prices over the quarter, looking at and also looking at the fourth quarter, looking at the price of oil has gone up. Just to understand if this convergence of prices and margins, if that will also apply to cookies and crackers. This is Fabio.

What we've seen in the market, there is a higher pressure on prices of pasta since this is a category which is totally connected to the price of wheat, and the price of wheat has fallen over the last few months. However, the cookie price also has wheat and also palm oil and other inputs which are related to palm oil. These have gone up in price in recent months. As you mentioned, this puts a higher pressure on the prices of these commodities. It's important to remember that the price of biscuits and cookies in the market went up. Substantial increases in recent years. We also saw in the slides that we showed of the market that year on year, the market has gone up 8%. In terms of the average price, these volumes have also risen as well.

This could also be a signal that at this point in time, there's less space to add price to the cookie category. The question now is how all of these variables will behave. We recovered some of these prices, as Gustavo mentioned at the beginning of the presentation, to maintain the relative price of the cookies at the correct level, which creates conditions for the recovery of growth of volumes and a growth in market share, which is what we have been able to see in the comparison year on year and also compared to the previous quarter. Understood. In relation to oil, how can we expect this relief from the palm oil in your margins? Oil has gone up. It could be a falloff in recent, in the last few days.

In the beginning, in the recent days, the beginning, we may be expect a little bit more to see if this reduction in costs will continue or if we want to have another change in tendencies. It's a little bit early to affirm that the market will reprice cookies due to this recent reduction in costs. We need a little more time to analyze that. Okay, that's clear. Thank you very much. Thank you. Our next question comes from Lucas Ferreira from J.P. Morgan. Lucas, please go ahead. Thank you again for the follow-up. It's more of a conceptual question. M. Dias Branco is a company which historically follows costs and exchange rates with a dollar going up and has always benefited greatly by these cycles of contraction of costs, as well as the expansion costs, much bigger than last year. Also had a big impact on the margins of the company.

As I understand, you have a strategy of looking more, if I can put it this way, looking at a little bit more being more price takers in the market, some categories when you spoke about pastas. This will make this dynamic a little bit more flexible. My question is more along the lines of the long term, the medium term, long term, two years going forward. If you believe that the question of margins, the targets of 20% is still reachable, is still realistic through the strategy of being closer to spot prices. Because, of course, the market's growing, the category which grows very little. These are categories that grow slowly. Your portfolio that you have today, increasing and adjusting your strategy, perhaps something here or there not recurring in expenses. Do you think it's able to get at the 15% margins that are reachable?

Is that viable? Hi, Lucas. This is Gustavo. Looking at your first question, conceptually, we made mistakes in the past regarding pricing and costs with the definition that we, the company, always had to lead the market. We had that role and we continue to have that role. At some point in time, the company insisted a great deal on the question of either holding things down or going up before other people do in an incremental way, which made the market share to be a very big difference. In the past, it makes a big difference. However, there is no way to say this, but in other regions, looking exclusively at the question of the cost of commodities, but looking at a movement that is more aimed at the market, looking at the market in a less radical way.

However, the logic does not change in the regions where we have a very important, very relevant participation in the market. That is the first point. Looking at profitability, our vision, it does not make sense for the company to generate a higher EBITDA than we had in the past. We look at that with great deal of conviction due to the investments which are being made. With the brand, the Piraqué brand is the brand, fastest growing brand in Brazil, has the biggest portfolio, has the highest average price, and we have invested a great deal in these items. We launched the lemon, without an unfried lemon, and other more healthier products. Looking at people that are concerned about those, looking at these numbers that way, both, it is a gigantic market.

The company is structuring itself in this direction of having more added value and less and less dependent upon these more basic products such as common pastas. However, this is a plan. It is a transitional period. Looking at our portfolio and the type of categories in which we invest, it helps us to believe that we have to deliver margins that are higher than we delivered in the past. That is our conviction and these are the motives, the reasons for that. Okay, thank you very much. The session of questions and answers is now closed. I would like to pass the microphone back to Gustavo for his final considerations. Thank you, everyone, once again, for participating in our call. Our team, Fabio and myself, are at your service for all of you. Please feel free to contact us on this channel. Thank you very much and have a great day.

The video conference of M. Dias Branco is now closed. We thank you all for your participation. Have a great day.

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