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Pembina Pipeline (NYSE:PBA) Corporation reported its Q4 2024 earnings, showcasing record financial performance metrics. Despite the strong results, the earnings call highlighted a mix of strategic advancements and market challenges. The company’s stock, currently trading near its 52-week high according to InvestingPro data, did not experience significant post-earnings movement, reflecting investor caution amid broader market trends. With a market capitalization of $25.67 billion, Pembina trades at a relatively high P/E ratio of 29x, suggesting premium pricing relative to near-term earnings growth potential.
Key Takeaways
- Pembina reported record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.254 billion.
- The company achieved a full-year adjusted cash flow of $3.265 billion.
- Pembina increased its common share dividend by 3.4%.
- The company fully consolidated ownership of Alliance and Aux Sable.
- Pembina is progressing on major projects like the Cedar LNG.
Company Performance
Pembina Pipeline Corporation demonstrated robust performance in Q4 2024, with significant increases in earnings and operational metrics. The company reported quarterly earnings of $572 million and a record adjusted EBITDA of $1.254 billion, underscoring its strong position in the midstream sector. The full-year earnings reached $1.874 billion, with an impressive adjusted cash flow from operations totaling $3.265 billion. Notably, InvestingPro analysis shows the company has maintained dividend payments for 55 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 3.16%. This impressive track record, combined with the company’s GOOD Financial Health Score of 2.51, demonstrates Pembina’s commitment to shareholder returns and financial stability.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: Not specifically disclosed for Q4, but significant operational cash flow was highlighted.
- Earnings per share: Not explicitly stated, but cash flow per share was $1.59 for Q4.
- Total (EPA:TTEF) volumes: 3.67 million barrels per day, a 6% increase year-over-year.
- Debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio: 3.5x.
Outlook & Guidance
Looking forward to 2025, Pembina projects growth between 4.2% and 4.5%. The company is focusing on capital-efficient project development and exploring expansion opportunities, particularly in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. For deeper insights into Pembina’s growth potential and valuation metrics, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which includes detailed analysis of the company’s financial health, growth prospects, and peer comparisons among 1,400+ top stocks. Key projects under development include the RFS4 expansion, Wapiti plant expansion, and the K3 cogeneration facility.
Executive Commentary
CEO Scott Burrows emphasized Pembina’s strategic positioning: "We believe Pembina is best positioned to benefit from the growth we are seeing and expect to continue to see in the WCSB." CFO Cameron Goldate highlighted the company’s focus on long-term, fee-based annuities, stating, "This is not an intention to get into the merchant business. This is a long term fee based annuity just like the rest of our business."
Risks and Challenges
- Market Volatility: Fluctuating commodity prices could impact Pembina’s revenue and profitability.
- Regulatory Changes: Potential changes in environmental regulations may affect project timelines and costs.
- Geopolitical Tensions: International conflicts could disrupt supply chains and market stability.
- Competition: Increased competition in the energy sector could pressure margins and market share.
- Project Execution Risks: Delays or cost overruns in major projects could affect financial outcomes.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts focused on Pembina’s strategic initiatives and market positioning. Key discussions included the details of the Yellowhead Mainline NGL extraction, the Greenlight Electricity Centre partnership, and ongoing negotiations for Alliance pipeline contracts. Pembina’s executives addressed potential NGL marketing strategies and the expansion of infrastructure in Northeast BC.
This comprehensive performance and strategic outlook position Pembina Pipeline Corporation as a key player in the energy infrastructure sector, poised to capitalize on future growth opportunities while navigating potential challenges.
Full transcript - PPL Corp (NYSE:PPL) Q4 2024:
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Results Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. This call is being recorded in 02/28/2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets.
Please go ahead.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Thank you, Konstantin. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina’s conference call and webcast to review highlights from the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer and Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pembina’s leadership team, including Jared Sprout, Janet Leduca, Stu Taylor, Ava Bishop and Chris Sherman. I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward looking in nature and are based on Pembina’s current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections.
Forward looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward looking statements and non GAAP measures, please see the company’s management’s discussion and analysis dated 02/27/2025, for the period ended 12/31/2024, as well as the press release Pembina issued yesterday, which are all available online at pembina.com and on both SEDAR Plus and EDGAR. I will now turn things over to Scott.
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Thanks, Dan. We were pleased yesterday to report our fourth quarter results, which included quarterly earnings of $572,000,000 record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1,254,000,000 and record quarterly adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $922,000,000 or $1.59 per share. We also delivered 2024 full year earnings of $1,874,000,000 record annual adjusted EBITDA of $4,408,000,000 and record full year adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $3,265,000 or $5.7 per share. A record financial year reflects the positive impact of recent acquisitions, growing volumes in Western Canadian Centimentary Basin and a strong contribution from the marketing business. In addition to strong financial and operational results, 2024 was marked by several accomplishments that highlighted the successful execution of Pembina’s strategy and our focus on strengthening our existing franchise, increasing our exposure to lighter hydrocarbons and resilient end use markets and accessing global market pricing for Canadian energy products.
Highlights included growing our presence in resilient Northeast U. S. Natural gas and NGL markets by fully consolidating ownership of Alliance and Aux Sable furthering global market access for Canadian natural gas producers by reaching a positive FID on the Cedar LNG project adding capital efficient, timely and certain capacity to accommodating growing Western Canadian sedimentary basin production through completion of the Phase eight piece pipeline expansion supporting growth focused Montney and Duvernay area customers with tailored solutions through two PGI transactions that included an expected $700,000,000 gross to PGI funding for further infrastructure development that will be underpinned by long term contracts and capitalizing on long term stable demand for ethane from Alberta’s growing petrochemical industry by entering a 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement with Dow. We We also continued commercial successes across the business in 2024, including executing incremental contracts or renewing contracts for approximately 170,000 BOE per day of pipeline transportation, primarily on Alliance and Peace pipeline as well as 25,000 barrels per day on the Nipissippi pipeline over 6,000,000 barrels of storage at the Edmonton terminals approximately 200,000,000 cubic feet per day of gas processing, primarily at Musgrove, Patterson, Creek and K3 and additional fractionation services across the Redwater complex.
On the major project front, we continue to progress various in flight construction projects expected to enter service in 2026, including the RFS4 expansion, the Wapiti plant expansion and the K3 cogeneration facility. We are also looking forward to the start of construction of Cedar LNG’s floating vessel in mid-twenty twenty five. Further, we are continuing to progress infrastructure solutions to meet Pembina’s commitment under the 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement with Dow. Pembina is seeking to fulfill its commitment in the most capital efficient manner possible and is evaluating a portfolio of opportunities, including the addition of a de ethanizer tower at RFS 3 within the Redwater Complex. By leveraging its existing assets and capabilities, Pembina now expects the total capital investment required to be less than $300,000,000 below the low end of the range previously communicated, resulting in improved capital efficiency as there is no change in the forecasted adjusted EBITDA contribution associated with the Dow supply agreement.
And we are actively developing additional expansion opportunities to support growing, demand for services on our conventional pipelines. These include the Taylor to Gordondale project, which is currently in the phase of the Canada Energy Regulators process, an expansion of the East pipeline system to add up to approximately 200,000 barrels per day of capacity to its market delivery pipeline from Fox Creek to the Mayo, and additional expansions to support volume growth in Northeast BC. Finally, we were excited to announce yesterday two new business updates. The first was that Pembina has entered into agreements for a 50% interest in the Greenlight Electricity Centre Limited Partnership, which is developing a gas fired combined cycle power generation facility to be located in Alberta’s industrial heartland on land owned by Pembina, adjacent to its Redwater complex. The Greenlight Electricity Centre has been and will continue to be developed by Kineticore Asset Management.
Greenlight is in active discussions with data centre customers to commercially underpin the project and believe the lands within the Alberta industrial heartland are well suited given their proximity to transmission and utility infrastructure. The government of Alberta has set an ambitious target of attracting $100,000,000,000 in data center investments by 02/1930, encouraging developers to bring their own power. Pembina and KinetiCore are committed to supporting this vision by delivering reliable and cost effective power solutions at scale to data centers looking to locate in Alberta. Along with our direct investment in Greenlight, Pemina is well positioned to leverage its existing and future value chain to further support the project. The proximity of Alliance Pipeline offers potential accretive expansion opportunity to provide natural gas supply into Greenlight’s electricity centre and the potential future development of Alberta Carbon Grid may provide a future emissions reduction solution.
This is a great example of a project we had envisioned when we first announced the development of the Alberta carbon grid and the Pembina Low Carbon complex. We are excited to be partnering with KinetiCore to extend our value chain even further to provide power to a promising new Alberta based data center industry. The second announcement was that Pembina has secured the sole extraction rights from the Yellowhead Mainline, a 1,000,000,000 cubic feet per day natural gas delivery pipeline that is under construction by ATCO. Pembina is currently advancing engineering of an up to 500,000,000 cubic feet per day straddle facility at which up to 200 or sorry, 25,000 barrels per day of NGL mix would be extracted from the natural gas stream and transported to Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta for fractionation and sale. The straddle facility would be located on Pembina’s own land and complement our already significant experience building and operating liquid extraction facilities that include approximately 1,800,000,000 cubic feet per day of extraction capacity to our Empress And Younger facilities.
The many successes of 2024 have been followed by continued momentum into early twenty twenty five. Together, they reflect Pembina’s leading position in the heart of the WCSB and the many opportunities available to enhance and expand our service alongside a growing Canadian energy industry. I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights for
: the fourth quarter and full year.
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pembina reported record fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1,254,000,000 This represents a 21% increase over the same period in the prior year. In pipelines, factors impacting the quarter primarily included a higher contribution from Alliance due to increased ownership following the Alliance Aux Sable acquisition and higher demand for seasonal contracts higher revenue related to the timing of capital recovery recognition higher volumes on the Nipissippi pipeline higher contracted volumes on the Peace pipeline system and contractual and placement adjustments on tolls, which were largely offset by earlier recognition of take or pay deferred revenue during the first half of twenty twenty four and finally, lower net revenue on the coaching pipeline largely due to lower firm tolls and lower interruptible volumes during the period. In facilities, factors impacting the quarter included the inclusion of Aux Sable following the Aux Sable Alliance acquisition and a higher contribution from PGI due to higher revenue associated with oil batteries acquired in in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four as well as higher volumes at certain PGI assets and the timing of capital recovery recognition. In marketing and new ventures, fourth quarter results reflect the net impact of higher net revenue from contracts with customers due to increased ownership interest in Aux Sable, higher NGL margins and lower realized gains on commodity related derivatives.
Finally, in the Corporate segment, fourth quarter results were higher than the prior period due to lower incentive costs. Earnings in the fourth quarter were $572,000,000 This represents an 18% decrease over the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, the decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter was primarily due to the net impact of the reversal of the previous impairment related to the NIPPCI pipeline, which impacted the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three unrealized gains recognized by PGI on interest rate derivative financial instruments compared to unrealized losses in 2023 unrealized losses on commodity related derivatives compared to unrealized gains in the prior period unrealized gains on interest rate derivative financial instruments recognized by Cedar LNG and higher interest expense and higher income tax expense. Total volumes were 3,670,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. This represents an increase of six percent over the same period in the prior year, reflecting the net impact of the Alliance Ox Sable acquisition, the reactivation of the Nipissi pipeline, lower volumes on the Peace Pipeline system due to earlier recognition of take or pay deferred revenue in the first half of twenty twenty four, which more than offset the increase from higher contracted volumes and lower interruptible volumes on the Cochin pipeline.
The fourth quarter contributed to full year results that included earnings of $1,874,000,000 record adjusted EBITDA of $4,408,000,000 which was 15% higher than in 2023 cash flow from operating activities of $3,214,000,000 and record adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $3,265,000,000 Thanks to strong results in 2024, Pembina generated meaningful free cash flow, which is allocated to strengthening the balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders by increasing the common share dividend by 3.4%. At 12/31/2024, based on the trailing twelve months, the ratio of proportionally consolidated debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.5x. Notably, this ratio reflects only three quarters of contribution from the increased ownership in Alliance and Aux Sable, but all of
: the debt associated with that
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: transaction. Our leverage remains at the low end of our targeted range reflecting our strong balance sheet and supporting a strong BBB credit rating. I’ll now turn things back to Scott.
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Thanks, Cam. In closing, I’ll once again say how excited we are about the opportunities ahead. We believe Pembina is best positioned to benefit from the growth we are seeing and expect to continue to see in the WCSB. Our extensive network of strategically placed assets provides a full suite of midstream and transportation services across all commodities natural gas, NGLs, condensate and crude oil. And we are confident that our customer service offering provides unmatched optionality and flexibility that our customers value.
We have an abundance of opportunities ahead of us and a clear pathway to growth with approximately $4,000,000,000 of secured projects currently under construction and more than $4,000,000,000 of additional projects in various stages of development. We are looking forward to the year ahead and continuing to share our progress with you. Thank you for joining us this morning. And can you please open up the line for questions?
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your first question comes from the line of A. J. O’Donnell from TPH. Your line is now open.
A.J. O’Donnell, Analyst, TPH: Hey, good morning, everyone. I was just hoping to maybe start on the rights to the NGLs off the Yellowhead Mainline project. Trying to think about what kind of commercial and growth opportunities that might create for you. Trying to think of this maybe along the lines of additional frac capacity or export dock capacity?
: Good morning, Ajay. Jared here. Thanks for the question. So, yes, like Scott mentioned in his opening remarks, we were awarded exclusive extraction rights on the Yellowhead Mainline, which will go into service kind of the latter half of twenty twenty seven based on public disclosure. We estimate we could build probably something in the neighborhood of maybe 500,000,000 a day of extraction capacity resulting in approximately 25,000 barrels of NGL extraction.
So what we’re doing right now, A. J, is we’re just evaluating, our two supply portfolios of C2, one which we’ve been fairly public with lately, supporting Dow’s net to zero cracker. Just evaluating how would the C2 fit into our overall portfolio. So that’s ongoing and we expect to have a little bit more information on that, probably at the May call. But then obviously, so that’s the C2 component of the opportunity.
And then with the C3 plus obviously we’re actively building RFS4 which is an incremental 55,000 barrels of C5 or C3 plus extraction capacity, fractionation. This barrels we could just shift it across the river and put that into our existing frac capacity if we’re not fully contracted and that would be very complementary to our marketing NGL book today. We have a large portfolio of C3 plus It’d be very complementary to that. And Chris and his team, they would continue to find the best market for those products, either domestically, into The United States and or internationally through West Coast exports. Scott did mention through the acquisition of Vox Sable and closing that here this summer, Pembina does have a nice contiguous block of land right adjacent to Dow’s Cracker and that will be the terminus essentially of where we would put our extraction facility.
We have access to the AIGS pipeline that’s the Alberta ethane gathering system right there And then the Redwater Fractionation Complex, where we would most likely send our C3 plus from this is just across the river and we have existing pipelines, that go back and forth between today. So, we have operations in the area. We have actually between Channahon, Younger and Empress. We have well over three Bcf of this type of operation. So, we’re well versed in how to build operate these types of assets.
Great. Appreciate it. I should also mention, A. J.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Yes, sorry, A. J. I was just
: going to also mention that the alliance pipeline, Scott mentioned the opportunity there as it comes in close proximity to green light. But also the alliance pipeline goes right through this plot of land. So, there would be further evaluation down the road about potentially if we ever wanted to do straddling that pipeline down the road. So, that’s an option as well.
A.J. O’Donnell, Analyst, TPH: Okay. I appreciate the detail. That kind of goes into my next question. Just on green light and just trying to think about the potential size of the gas requirement for the facility and how that could translate to additional capacity on Alliance. And then also just kind of along those lines, if these projects kind of make it across the finish line and we see incremental capital invested into Alliance, does that help mitigate at all the ongoing rate case situation with shippers?
I mean, I realize that there’s a timing mismatch here, but has that been factored into your discussion with shippers currently?
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Hey, A. J, Stu Taylor. With respect to the gas supply, it’s one of the things that attracted us to this opportunity. But what we have right now is each phase will consume approximately 80,000,000 cubic feet per day of gas. That will grow as you guys the phases get built out.
Obviously, that’s a significant number for gas egress for the province as well. I’ll let Gerard talk more.
: Yes. Just on the alliance, so where we’re at with respect to that file and talking a little bit about expansion. So, we’ve essentially met all the CER obligations here in the month of February. Then we have ongoing biweekly meetings with the large shipper group. It’s about 40 plus individuals and just working expeditiously to get a negotiated settlement here in 2025 and get that in front of the regulator.
What I will say with respect to the expansion, there’s some common themes that we continue to hear, A. J. Number one, our shippers on Alliance very much value the service that Alliance provides. They very much like the endpoint getting their gas into Chicago, but also the high reliability, availability and the cost structure of the pipeline. And part of the conversation has got to expansion opportunities.
So there is high demand for expansion opportunities from the shipper group and we’re just evaluating that right now. Would that be a short haul type expansion opportunity into the Fort Saskatchewan area as industrial demand increases or is that a long haul type expansion where we go all the way down to the Chicagoland area. If you recall, Alliance was originally set up to do what we call the B site compressors. So, building out the B site compressors where Alliance already owns that land today. That would be the long haul and then we could do a shorter haul version just into the Fort Saskatchewan area.
So, it is an active conversation we’re having with the shippers.
A.J. O’Donnell, Analyst, TPH: Appreciate all the detail. Thank you. I’ll turn it back.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen from Barclays (LON:BARC). Your line is now open.
Theresa Chen, Analyst, Barclays: Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Related to the NGLs off of the Yellowhead Mainline and the potential 500 millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters millimeters mill And as it translates to potentially 25,000 barrels per day of NGL with a significant C2 component, how much of the 25,000 could the C2 to supplement your 50,000 barrel per day supply agreement? And then between that, the $300,000,000 and the $300,000,000 de ethanizer, how much of the 50 could those two pieces comprise? Would you love to get more details of the quantitative makeup of the
: Okay. Yes, I’m going to try to unpack those in order. So I think the first question was with respect to cost. An asset of this size, we believe would be in that neighborhood of $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 Now this is fairly preliminary. We would we’re obviously going to be doing a significant amount more work with respect to the engineering and as we progress through our gating system here at Pembina.
But that’s the rough order of magnitude. With respect to the composition of that $25,000 you would expect to be roughly call it 50% of that would be ethane, the remainder would be your C3 plus component. And then how does it fit into our overall portfolio? So that’s what we’re talking about right now is we have our existing supply agreements. There’s also demand for future expansions with in Alberta.
Dow has been very public about Phase three, etcetera. So we’re just evaluating right now. Do we put these barrels into part of our existing supply portfolio? Or do we make this part of the incremental? You mentioned RFS three d Ethanolizer, we’ve been fairly public about that.
There is an opportunity there to we have existing barrels in our portfolio that we can add to the incremental demand. There is new opportunities such as the RFS III DF, and then there is these barrels. So, it’s a little bit too early and premature to be talking about the actual details, but expect to provide a lot more color at our May conference call.
Theresa Chen, Analyst, Barclays: Understood. And maybe turning to the LNG front, given the geopolitical developments across Europe, Russia, Ukraine as well as the policy movements in The U. S, Can you talk about your progress to date in contracting the capacity you have remaining on Cedar?
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: It’s Stu again. We’ve been working hard since late twenty twenty four, working with potential acquirers of this capacity. We’re very pleased with the response that we’ve had. We have a broad range of customers who are looking for LNG service, including both Canadian producers as well as NOC and IOC counterparts
: looking to participate.
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: We’ve had term sheets out and term sheets returned well in excess of the capacity that we have. And so we’re working through that process. We will soon be looking to shortlist and begin more detailed negotiations with these counterparts and we’re very excited about where we sit at this point in time.
Theresa Chen, Analyst, Barclays: Thank you.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Your line is open.
Praneeth Satish, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Thanks. Maybe I’ll just start with two questions here on the Greenlight project. So first is just trying to understand how much is your share of CapEx. If we just kind of assume $2,000 per kilowatt, then your share could be as high as $1,800,000,000 And I know it’s going to happen in phases, but I just want to understand if that’s in the range of how you see your investment into the project and the time frame for spending?
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Yes. So, we’re essentially 50% of the project. At this point in time, early days, but we’re looking at essentially $1,500,000,000 per phase of four fifty megawatts, so up to 1,800 megawatts. So our share would be again 50% on a go forward basis. Our plan, we will be a phase development.
There could be opportunity as we stage this out, we could accelerate some of the phases and combine them. At this point in time, it’s a phased development of the four phases with construction FID beginning we’re targeting sometime in 2026 and then construction through to 02/1930, ’20 ’20 ’9, ’2 thousand and ’30.
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: And maybe Puneet, I’ll just chime in. It’s Cam here. And just as a reminder to all the listeners, where we stand today following the Alliance on X Able acquisition, our run rate of free cash flow after dividends available for investment is in the range of about $1,250,000,000 to about $1,500,000,000 per year. We’ve obviously said that through 2025 and 2026, as we’re closing out some of the in flight projects and the heaviest spend period on Cedar, we are running at probably a little above a little excess free cash flow, but obviously closer to it. And then 2027 and beyond, we begin generating material free cash flow again available for all that investment.
So that obviously lines up really well with the opportunities that we’re talking about here.
Praneeth Satish, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Got it. No, that’s helpful. And then maybe just on the project itself, Greenlight, can you help us understand what the return profile looks like relative to your traditional midstream investments? I mean, this is a bit of a step out in terms of taking a piece of the power generation part. So would you expect higher returns than your traditional hurdle rates?
And then can you say, whether the economics would be secured by long term contracts? Or would you be taking on any merchant exposure?
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Hey, Puneet. Let me start with I think it was your second question there. And I think one of the things that we really want to make sure is very clear is that, obviously, the power generation angle of this opportunity is a great project in its own right. But what really makes us excited about it as it relates to Pembina’s value chain is the integration potential. So the opportunity obviously, we have a significant gas business today through our gas processing business, through Alliance.
Obviously, we have an aspiring carbon sequestration solution. So the integration of the opportunity with those projects is what really got us excited about it. To your specific questions, we would see sort of base returns consistent with a midstream infrastructure return at this point, probably a little early to start throwing out exact multiples, but I would say it’s within that range. And, lastly, I think it is, of course, our intention to have a long term contract underpinning this project, and obviously, that’s those negotiations are ongoing.
Praneeth Satish, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Got it. Thank you.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is from the line of Rob Hope from Scotiabank (TSX:BNS). Your line is now open.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation0: Good morning, everyone. Maybe going back to Alliance, can you add some color on kind of what the initial consultations have been with shippers as well as is the expectation that the existing contracts could get reopened or is this really just focused on IT and the slot tools?
: Yes, Rob, thanks. It’s Jared here. So I would categorize the group into just a few buckets, right. So I mentioned there’s obviously 40 plus folks in the room. You have long term shippers.
You have people who you play in the seasonal strip in the IT component and then some really large long term shippers and then you have some of our smaller shippers on the pipeline. So those are kind of the three groups that we’re working with right now. Can’t get into too much detail with respect to what everyone wants but we are trying to hone into a mutual agreement that meets the needs of all 40 plus individuals. And I can say it’s going very well and the conversations have been, extremely respectful and progressive, as we continue to work. With respect to the contracts, that is actually what some of the conversations are around.
Depending on which route we go, there could be different outcomes. And obviously, people that have a lot of capacity on the pipeline want to keep that capacity because obviously it supports your condensate development plans and those types of things long term. And there’s obviously people who maybe don’t have a lot of capacity on the asset who would love to have more capacity on the asset. So that’s something that we’re working through. But at the end of the day, the takeaway is, it is a little bit early.
I think in May, we’ll be able to give her a little bit more color. Demand is high for the asset and we just got to kind of grind through it here for the next couple of weeks. Anything else, Cam, Scott, you want to add on that? No?
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation1: All right. Appreciate that. And then maybe just going back to
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation0: the ethane capital intensity commentary about being below the $300,000,000 range, but maintaining the EBITDA profile there. Can you maybe add a little bit more color on kind of where you’re seeing the savings or kind of where you’re leaning to in terms of the optionality and solution?
: It’s not so much savings, Rob. It’s just really like we had a portfolio of projects that could add to the totality of our supply book. And it’s really we just got really diligent in just going through those and evaluating each one on a standalone basis. Where did we have extra capacity across our enterprise where we could maximize the ethane recoveries through existing assets. So that plays a portfolio or sorry a portion of the portfolio.
So really just getting militant and grinding it down and ultimately you know it’s kind of we’ve been signaling it’s kind of honing into that Redwater 3 De Ethanizer Tower which is the most capital efficient. Redwater 3 was built with a lot of the bells and whistles to accommodate that tower. So it was really just doing the work and working through our portfolio of opportunities and getting the maximum out of our existing steel that we have in the ground. So through a combination of that, the team did a tremendous job of coming up with being at that low end of that capital range. And now Yellowhead obviously, now we have to just take a step back and evaluate the entire portfolio.
With Yellowhead obviously comes a lot more C3 plus so just working that into the mix. But like I said earlier, there is incremental demand for incremental phases of polymer development here in Alberta.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation1: Great. Thank you.
: Thanks, Rob.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Aaron McNeal from TD Cowen. Your line is now open.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation0: Hey, good morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. How would you characterize the Greenlight project’s gas turbine slot reservations and other long lead time items? And more generally, how far along is the sort of FEED process?
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: It’s Stu again. So we’ve been working with the Kineticore development team for over one point five years. They are at the beginning of our excitement with them is their
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation2: expertise that they have
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: and they just completed the as well as they progress the ASOQ position. And again, that’s what excites a lot of our data center customers or the potential is the speed to market. We are going to be in that turbine queue. As we go out, we have not placed those orders at this point in time. But again, what I mentioned, FID is expected in 2026 and our in service date in the 02/1930 timeframe.
So, we’re happy where we are with the queue. We’re happy with the progress. We’re engineering work to take place in 2025 and reaching that FID decision in 2026.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation0: Got you. And then maybe just to return to A. J. Question on increased NGL volumes flowing through the system. Can you comment specifically about that dock capacity you asked about and helping your customers just export those incremental volumes more generally?
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation3: Go ahead. Aaron, it’s Chris Sherman. We’re certainly paying a lot of attention to what volume growth in general looks like in the basin and this is a piece of it and undoubtedly continue to see the value of West Coast export. I think we’ve talked about some of the efficiencies we’re driving at our own facility. We’ve talked about some of the other projects that are on the go on the West Coast and undoubtedly, each incremental barrel definitely supports those export positions.
So, we’re keeping an eye on them. We don’t have anything specific linked to or related to Yellowhead per se, But obviously, we’re bullish West Coast export and like what we have there today and see that growth being supportive of the projects that are underway.
: It should be noted that these C3 plus barrels would be like they would be proprietary Pembina barrels. They wouldn’t be the barrels of the shippers on the Yellowhead pipeline.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation0: Got you. Appreciate taking my questions. I’ll turn it over.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation1: Thank you.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta from UBS. Your line is now open.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation4: Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to go to Slide 15, executing inside projects. Number of projects coming on in the first half of twenty twenty six. Can you give us like some kind of progress percentage?
How much what’s the completion at this point, and and general progress that you’re making to getting these three projects all in first half of twenty twenty six?
: Yes. Thanks for the question. So project execution, I’ll speak to probably just the three largest ones we have on the go here. So the K3 cogen, the Wapiti expansion, Wapiti gas plant expansion and PGI, both those projects are PGI projects that Pembina is executing and then our RFS for frac expansion and rail expansion. So, all three of those projects are going extremely well and no concerns with respect to timing and or execution.
We’ve got through each one of those projects through some pretty material milestones. Equipment is showing up active boots on the ground at all three of those locations, so no supply chain concerns. And I would like to just have a bit of a shout out with respect to to throughout the last couple of months there’s been some pretty extreme weather here in Alberta. The safety execution throughout the last couple of months and previous to that has been excellent. It’s been world class in Pembina’s opinion and the cost structure continues to come in as expected.
So, like I said, we’re getting through some pretty key milestones here and the equipment’s getting delivered to site and it’s really impressive to see these new assets coming out of the ground.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation4: Perfect. My quick follow-up here is, you obviously talk to a lot of producers. What’s your internal outlook for the West Canadian sedimentary basin volume growth, whether it’s gas or liquids or oil? Like, how should we think about the growth over the next two or three years based on your internal estimates?
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Yes. It’s Scott here. When we use a lot of our own internal data and third party data and generally speaking they’re lining up. When we look at third party data, we’re generally seeing growth in that kind of mid single digit area. And I would say that that’s relatively consistent with our own internal forecast.
I would say the only hesitation I have right now is just given all the volatility in the market and the uncertainty that puts a little bit of a cloud over it. But absent that, that mid single digit is something that we continue to forecast.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation4: Thank you so much.
: I’d maybe just add to that that, although the average is mid single digits, some of Pembina’s biggest shippers, if you go into their detailed public information, some of them are growing at higher than that. And it should be noted that some of our customers are drilling into take or pay contracts. Some of them would be over. So, although the physical volumes will continue to grow, we believe that we’re in a pretty good position to continue to meet their growth demand.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Maurice Choi from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation5: Thanks and good morning everyone. I just wanted to come back to the discussion about returns on Greenlight. You mentioned that the base returns will be consistent with your midstream assets. But I suppose if you look at your existing value chain, there can be a relatively wide range depending on your exposure to volumes and prices, for example. So if I think about this, other returns more close to say this, it’s more traditional seven times that bill multiples that you have or are we talking about something close to nine or 10 times for a long term contracted take or pay infrastructure?
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Yes, Maurice. I mean, I think negotiations are ongoing, so I’m a little reticent to start to point to a specific data point. I would just say, obviously I mean, you’ve obviously painted the range of our return profile historically, and we would characterize it within that range. But given the stage of negotiations, I’m reluctant to sort of specifically quantify it at this stage.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation4: Maybe just holistically, we took
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation5: a step back away from GreenLake and look at an option here like this, Yellowhead and everything. Where do you sense your appetite for risk and purchase returns? And has anything changed in the last six to twelve months in terms of how you view your next opportunity and how you view your return criteria?
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: I think what we look at is obviously a full scale value chain across the business and obviously opportunities across that value chain which continue to come. I think part of it is obviously the commercial angle, part of it is execution and controlling your costs and protecting that. I think Jared exemplified what we think is one of our advantages in that our track record on capital execution I think has been incredibly strong historically. And so for us, that gives us a lot of confidence to be able to sort of to be able to put forward a compelling proposition to the customers. In terms of the commerce, obviously, that’s market facing.
I think we have a history of trying to find creative solutions. I think that shows up through a couple of the transactions that we did with PGI and Whitecap and Varian over the course of this year. I think it’s shown up historically in our contracting and our pipelines business. And so we continue to look for opportunities to be creative. Ultimately, the market drives what returns are, but I think we control what we can control.
And when you look at sort of our capabilities in building assets specifically relative to competition, that is one area where we differentiate ourselves and where we believe we have a competitive advantage.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation5: Thanks. And me just finishing off with more holistic strategy question about using Greenlight as an example here. Obviously, you mentioned that Greenlight benefits from being close in proximity to Alliance and maybe what you may want to do ACG. Does that mean that you can probably scope down future power opportunities to once they’re close to infrastructure versus being a more big IPP player within the province.
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: 100%. This is all about the data center play, the value chain extension cited behind the fence on our land. You’re not going to see us do an IPP in Lethbridge or something like that. This is very focused and targeted and on strategy.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation5: I guess, thanks for that.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Skiro Dounis from Citi. Your line is now open.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation6: Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. I want to touch first on tariffs. You guys pointed out in the release, no imminent impact to operations, but does seem to have reinvigorated a broader discussion in Canada just around energy infrastructure and knew what best suits your needs. So, curious if that’s reshaping how you’re thinking about projects that you’re pursuing longer term and if you’re already maybe seeing that sort of shift where projects are coming in that maybe weren’t on the radar a few months ago?
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Yes, it’s Scott here. As we pointed out as you said in the press release, no immediate financial impact from the tariffs. From our perspective, we’re hearing all the right things and now we need to start to see all the right things. And so, from our perspective, we do see a sentiment change in terms of politicians, in terms of the general public, which we think is generally positive for the industry. We’ve been progressing lots of projects in the background and we will continue to progress those projects.
And hopefully, with what’s happening, it would be obvious to the country that these projects need to get built. And so, we think that there’s definitely positive tailwinds. You’re not going to see anything in the next day or two, obviously, but we continue to see tailwinds in terms of potentially deregulation deregulation, speedier project approvals which should benefit the industry long term.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation6: Got it. That’s helpful color, Scott. Second question, just a quick cleanup one related to CapEx. The December guidance pointed to the potential for CapEx maybe increase as much as $200,000,000 if more projects got sanctioned. Obviously, you sort of announced a few last night and today.
So just curious kind of where we sit with that $200,000,000 number?
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: It’s Pierre, it’s Cam here. I think, some of them have progressed along the way. I’d say maybe about half of that has progressed along. I mean, one of the big pieces there was, the de ethanizer at RFS. We’re continuing to move through Gates internally on that, as well as some of the Northeast B.
C. Spending, which continues to move through Gates. So I would say that at this point, we’re not all the way towards that upper end. We’re marching through the range and if you want to pick a point, probably about halfway.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation6: Got it. That’s helpful, Cam.
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Thanks for that. I’ll leave it there.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Next (LON:NXT) question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation2: Hey, good morning, everyone. This is Eli Johnson on for Jeremy. Maybe just on the 2025 guide, I mean, we saw a pretty strong print in 4Q and we recognized some seasonality in the business, but how should we think about the 4.2% to 4.5% range incorporating some conservatism? Is that tied to any cushion for Alliance? Or can you just help frame that up a bit?
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Yes. Good morning, Eli. So I think the way we would characterize the ranges is a couple of things. Obviously, there is seasonality in our business and I think it comes from about three different places. Obviously, the first is obviously the inherent seasonality in the marketing business, which is weighted to Q1 and Q4.
I think that’s generally well understood. With the advent of more West Coast egress for the liquids business in the last sort of two to three years. I mean, obviously, that has moderated some, but even you still see that in large extent on the pricing side, and I think you’d see that this year as well. The second thing would be obviously the repair and integrity work portfolio that occurs in our business. And so often that results in much of that occurring in the third quarter.
Some of our work occurs in the first and the fourth quarter because of winter access only, but, you know, there is some seasonality in that just based on obviously getting through spring, getting to work and planning our work plan. And then the last piece would obviously be the Alliance interruptible profile. So as we’ve seen in past years and continue to be our outlook this year is obviously winter seasons tend to see higher interruptible demand, consequently higher demand for service, and that would lead to a relatively softer Q2 and Q3 for that asset relative to Q1 and Q4. In some cases, the seasonality has been in some years upwards of 15%, like from a Q1 to Q2 type of sequential number. So I think we think about that and we see that.
I think the last point I would make with respect to the overall guidance for the year is I want to remind everyone that we do our guidance and our forecasting based on the forward strip as it relates to the direct commodity exposure part of our business in the marketing segment.
: And if
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: you look at that business today, obviously, we’ve had a very good January so far. I mean, I think most of the pricing, despite the tariff noise and volatility, has shown up well. We saw Bellevue propane in the $0.9 range. Obviously, the Canadian dollar has weakened and that’s a net positive for our business. But I think when you look at the curves for the balance of the year, I mean, if you were to look at a frac spread curve, for example, through the balance of the year, there’s effectively a $10 difference between January and December frac spread.
So there’s a fair amount of backwardation in the curves at the moment. Obviously, if we continue to see each month churn by and not see that backwardation occur, that’s a positive for us. But we only know what the market tells us right now or what we’re willing to put our fingers on, and that’s what’s reflected in the
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: guidance. I would just add as well, there were some, call it, one time capital recoveries in Q4 and just ensuring that those obviously aren’t annualized into 2025. Those were select in 2024. So just ensuring everyone on the call is aware of that and doesn’t carry that forward.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation2: That’s really good color there. Thank you. And then maybe just on Cedar, it seems like the project risk profile has decreased meaningfully. So how should we think about future offtake contracts that you do sign maybe carrying a higher rate to reflect that? Can you give us some color about what kind of demand market you’re seeing?
I know you highlighted in the release there’s a lot of demand. So just color on that contracting environment?
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: So it’s Stu again. So again, we went out and like you stated, we do believe that we were derisking the project and we undertook and stepped up to FID the project. As such, we’re out in the market. We’ve looked at to benefit from that derisking at this point in time. And as I stated previously, we’ve had lots of response and lots of positive response from both multinational oil companies and Canadian producers and LNG off takers today.
So we’re pretty excited about taking that next step and believe we are, one, de risking the project as you stated, but at the same time improving the economics for the project as well.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation2: Great. I’ll leave it there. Thanks guys.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier from CIBC (TSX:CM) Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation7: Yes. Thank you. I just wanted to follow-up on the Greenlight project a little bit here. I wonder if you could talk about the genesis of the project and what attracted you to Gas Firepower in the first place other than the integration aspect?
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Hey, Rob, it’s Stu again. We started down the path and we’ve mentioned and talked about our land adjacent to the Redwater assets, our low carbon complex. And so we started looking for tenants and opportunities to utilize that land and power generation was one of those opportunities. We looked at in the early days the carbon sequestration link and the connection to that. As things went on and we began working with the Kineticore team and as the markets changed and where this power what was the plan for the power sale as opposed to just selling into the grid as such, KinetiCore changed and pivoted and we started talking about and began meeting with co locators and hyperscalers.
And we’ve seen this opportunity to take the power generation right to a midstream type model with long term contracts off the back end. So it quickly became very appealing to Pembina that we could make this look exactly like one of our other businesses. And as you mentioned, beyond that and the success we see with that change in the data center growth, obviously, the interconnection, we always talked about providing services, gas supply as potential. We have the capability and the infrastructure to provide gas, to provide water, to provide the land, as I’ve already mentioned. And so, the integration opportunity just grew, but we like the project right from the start located on our land.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation7: Yes, that’s helpful. And that’s a good segue to the follow-up here about merchant exposure. I’m just curious just in general how much capital are you comfortable allocating to Power? I know there’s a couple of other projects Cogent at K3, but and then really the merchant exposure you’re willing to take on. For example, I know you want to contract this in a way that looks like the rest of your risk profile, but you have an internal load that can act as a bit of an internal hedge.
And then to the extent that your appetite is different than your partners for future phases, for example, they might want to do more on spec than you’re interested in doing, are there off ramps where that in the circumstance where you’re not aligned with your partner that you don’t have to FID subsequent phases?
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Rob, I’ll start out. I mean, I think first of all, our intention here is to match the power load with the need from the facility. So we don’t see ourselves getting into the merchant power business. That’s not what this is about. This is very much about leveraging the facilities in and around our existing assets, leveraging the integration and obviously having a really attractive sort of long term annuity with very high quality, high creditworthy counterparties and the ability to use that to leverage the rest of our business.
In terms of how much capital we could see allocating to this, I mean, obviously, we’ve talked about three phases as a part of this as sort of the initial piece. I think we need to see where that goes. And what I mean by that is we haven’t talked about more than that. If the opportunities to grow are larger, I think we’ll analyze that as we always would. But to go back to my initial response, this is not an intention to get into the merchant business.
This is a long term fee based annuity just like the rest of our business.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation7: Yes. Okay. Understood. And then finally, just wanted to follow-up on the tariff question a bit here. I’m curious how you’re changing your approach to the NGL marketing year given the threat of tariffs and now they’ve been seemingly kicked out to April, which is not helpful given the marketing year.
So are you doing anything in terms of language in your agreements or changing maybe the amount of exposure you want to have to marketing this year given that tariff threat?
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation3: Rob, it’s Chris Sherman. Yes, you mentioned that timing isn’t great for the NGO contract year as far as sort of getting those contracts buttoned down. But we’ve been largely positioning ourselves, not tariff specific, but largely positioning ourselves as much off the West Coast as possible. And so that’s really helped insulate us, first of all. And then I’d say, secondly, at least to date, we’ve seen a fairly reasonable approach with buyers where tariffs could have an impact.
And I think we will certainly be adding terms that are tariff specific and finding the right way to get that business done. It’s not a big concern for us going into the NGL year.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation7: Okay, great. Thanks, everyone.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation1: Hi, thanks. Good morning. I wanted to go to your guidance you initiated last year, the 4% to 6% CAGR. And can you comment on directionally with the COTION recontracting and some of the levers you’re seeing going forward, how you’re thinking about where you’re tracking to that range? And then also your plan directionally, is this an annual roll you’re contemplating on that guide?
Or is it more of a wait until it ends and you’re rolling a couple of years out?
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Out? Hey, Ben. It’s Cam here. Listen, I think in terms of the guide, obviously, we put it out last May. We’re sort of halfway through it.
I would say that we’re happy with what we’re seeing. We’re seeing good opportunities. Big focus on that time frame on productivity and sort of margin in the business. Certainly, we’re trending well. I’m sort of reluctant to quantify it at this point in terms of exactly where we are, but certainly, we’re very pleased with where we are tracking in the range.
And I think there’s a number of opportunities here, which the team is working on. And some of them will occur in that time frame, some of them will occur beyond. But we’d like to sort of see that come to fruition before we start to stretch the time line out even further. I would sort of mention that I think when we look at our guidance, lots of numbers out there in the peer group. We always talk about ours on a fee based dollar per share.
And we think as we look at some of those comparable numbers from some of our peers, the 4% to 6% continues to stack up in line with our peers and well for the most part.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation1: Okay. Got it. Thanks for that, Cam. And maybe a follow-up on Alliance. I’m not sure maybe Stu does mention this, as things are going quite well.
Can you impact it a bit? Is that more of, you feel pretty good about the timing of how this could get resolved maybe a little bit quicker than you expected in terms of discovery? Or is it related to maybe something else that you’re referring to?
: Ben, Jared here. Yes, I can’t really get into the details. I think my commentary around it’s going well is we have routine meetings with the shipper group. The shipper group is we’re having great conversations in the room, really trying to get down to brass tacks on what all the parties want. So that is the encouragement here.
And then, I mentioned it earlier in the call, but hopefully in the May timeframe, we’re able to give a lot more color with respect to the progression of commercial opportunities there.
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation1: Okay, got it. Thanks Fred. Okay, thanks everybody.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: Your last question for today comes from the line of Patrick Kenny from National Bank.
: I know there’s been a lot on green light already, but just wanted to confirm since you won’t be in the driver’s seat per se on the development and construction process, and I know you’re still currently in negotiations, but curious if you might be contemplating anything unique within your LP with the Kineticore that, might mitigate or protect your exposure to the risk of cost overruns as the complex is built out just given this isn’t really your core business?
Dan Tucanal, VP of Capital Markets, Pembina Pipeline Corporation1: Pat, it’s Stu.
Stu Taylor, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: We in taking this step with Greenlight and the JV that we’ve entered into, we look back, did our due diligence with respect to KinetiCorp, their capabilities, where they are sitting, the progress that they’ve made to date and became comfortable. We are a 50% partner as described. As we go forward, we made sure that we secured the correct governance that we need to have this go forward on with our controls in place and our oversight that we thought we needed as we would go. We’re making sure that we have the right people to stay on top of the project from this position And we’re comfortable where we’re going. Yes.
And just to remind, again, these are not new. They’ve just completed building the Cascade Power Plant. We’re excited about working with them and again believe that we’ve made selected the correct partner for us in this endeavor.
: Got it. Okay. Thanks for that Stu. And then switching gears to Northeast BC, just with the renewed support for resource infrastructure in the province. Can you provide a bit more color as to what you think industry might need over the near to medium term with respect to whether it’s additional fractionation capacity or other infrastructure over and above what you might have in flight today?
I’m thinking really, especially if and when LNG Canada sanctions Phase two.
: Hey, Pat, Jared. Yes, great question. So, obviously, Scott mentioned in our call that we’re actively proceeding. And Cam mentioned we’re deploying capital on our Northeast BC expansions. With just what’s in front of us with LNG Canada Phase one cedar, wood fiber, etcetera, we see a material amount of NGLs condensate and obviously your C3 plus coming out of that area.
So our long term view, the macro view would be not only does Pembina’s projects are going to be required, but there’s probably other third party projects that are going to be required and that we’re supportive of, taking place because the industry is going to require it, especially with LNG Canada Phase two potentially on the horizon, maybe SUI gets a Cedar two one day, etcetera, etcetera. But there is a lot of very good momentum with respect to West Coast exports. With respect to fractionation, our RFS4 project continues. Really glad that we sanctioned that when we did. We’re going to deliver that at a very effective cost per barrel when you do the math on that greenfield project and it’s getting highly contracted and, you know, adding, you know, a bunch of more NGLs from Yellowhead to Sherman’s book on our marketing business, you know, takes up more NGL capacity.
So we do believe macro that another fractionator will be required to meet that NGL demand obviously because we’re tight. Our competitors have been talking about it, Pembina has been talking about it and we think we’re in obviously a really good situation to be able to capture more of that growth opportunity as well.
: Okay. Thanks, Jared. I appreciate that. And I’m not sure if you could provide any update on your application on the Western pipeline system. Looks like we might get a decision in April.
But just wondering what the financial impact might be if you do get the green light to shut down the line or not sure if you took any provision in the quarter or not. But maybe on the flip side, if you do need to keep the pipe operating, roughly what quantum of capital might be required to maintain the integrity of the line? Thanks.
: Good question, Pat. So, yes, we shut down the southern portion of the Western line I think in 2022. We took that out of service. This pipeline is significantly older than myself. I would say that it’s becoming it’s getting to its useful end of economic life.
We’re going to have to deploy more and more capital to maintain the operability to save reliable operation of that asset and hence the abandonment application. The financial impact is very immaterial to our overall business, taking the pipeline out of service. So we’re just kind of working through that right now. I won’t get into the magnitude of the capital that’s required to keep it in service, but it’s not a material amount, all things considered with respect to our overall integrity program. But it is a substantial amount of work internally for us to maintain that asset and keep it in the safe reliable operation that we expect across our asset base.
And Pat, it’s Cam here.
Cameron Goldate, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: I would just add that, of course, there is a single customer on that line today. And as has been the case, it’s a cost recovery mechanism for capital spent and for repairs and maintenance. We would continue to expect that if investment was required going forward. And that is obviously part of the dynamic here is whether it can be operated in an economic way in the future.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Scott Burrows for closing comments. Please go ahead.
Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Thanks everybody for joining us today and we were very pleased to end the year with a very strong Q4 and some exciting new growth projects. So, thanks to all of those on the call, our investors, our shareholders, our employees. We look forward to a great 2025. Thank you.
Konstantin, Conference Call Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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