Earnings call transcript: PHC Holdings misses EPS expectations in Q2 2025

PHC Holdings Corp reported its earnings for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a significant miss on earnings per share (EPS) against forecasts. The company posted an EPS of 14.13, falling short of the forecasted 45.88, marking a surprise of -69.2%. Despite this, the company exceeded revenue expectations, reporting 89.52 billion USD against a forecast of 86.87 billion USD. The stock reacted negatively, with a 4.01% drop in after-hours trading.

Key Takeaways

• PHC Holdings missed EPS expectations by a substantial margin.
• Revenue exceeded forecasts by 3.05%.
• Stock price declined by 4.01% post-earnings.
• Operating profit forecast was revised upward.
• Cash and cash equivalents decreased significantly.

Company Performance

During the second quarter of 2025, PHC Holdings faced significant challenges, particularly in meeting EPS forecasts. The company attributed part of its performance to foreign exchange losses and a reduction in profit attributable to owners. However, it managed to revise its operating profit forecast upward, suggesting potential improvements in operational efficiency.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: 89.52 billion USD, exceeding forecasts by 3.05%
• EPS: 14.13, significantly below the forecast of 45.88
• Operating Cash Flow: 12.1 billion JPY
• Capital Expenditure: 4.4 billion JPY
• ROE: 4.2% for the quarter

Earnings vs. Forecast

PHC Holdings reported an EPS of 14.13, missing the forecast of 45.88 by a significant margin. This represents a -69.2% surprise, indicating potential operational or market challenges. The revenue, however, exceeded expectations, providing a silver lining in the company's financial performance.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, PHC Holdings' stock declined by 4.01%, reflecting investor disappointment with the EPS miss. The stock's movement is notable given its previous close at 1,023, and it now trades closer to its 52-week low of 856.

Outlook & Guidance

Despite the earnings miss, PHC Holdings remains optimistic about its future. The company is maintaining its annual dividend forecast and anticipates a potential recovery in the U.S. market in 2026. It also expects BGM sales to stabilize with a -2.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and is targeting 4-5% revenue growth.

Executive Commentary

Koichiro Sato, COO, emphasized the company's strong market position, stating, "We are gaining market share from our competitors." He also noted the importance of securing margins in the first year of the Value Creation Plan (VCP).

Risks and Challenges

• Foreign exchange losses impacting profitability.
• Declining BGM market, with a 4-5% annual decline.
• Cash and cash equivalents reduction affecting liquidity.
• Tariff impacts, costing the company JPY 800 million year-to-date.
• Potential market saturation in the CGM segment.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts raised questions about the impact of tariffs and the company's strategy to improve BGM profit margins. The transfer of the CGM business was also a topic of interest, as it could influence future revenue streams.

Full transcript - PHC Holdings Corp (6523) Q2 2026:

Financial Presenter: Gains in the previous year, and JPY 550 million from reviews of the headquarters functions. Conversely, there was JPY 500 million in other income due to changes in the classification of affiliated companies. The pathology business saw improved profitability due to price revisions and cost reductions. However, this was not enough to offset the impact of revenue decline from biomedical and IVD businesses, partly due to the impact of tariffs. Page 17 shows sales by region. Japan experienced a modest rise, with growth in LSIM and healthcare IT solutions offsetting declines in CRO and IVD businesses. Europe achieved a 4.7% increase in sales, driven by strong performance in BGM and pathology, as well as a recovery trend in biomedical. North America experienced decrease in revenue due to the continued impact of exchange rates and stagnant equipment demand in diagnostics and life sciences, despite growth in BGM.

Other regions experienced a slight increase in revenue, driven by growth in Indonesia, despite declines in BGM and diagnostics and life sciences. Page 18 provides details of the adjustments made to operating profit through calculated adjusted EBITDA. These adjustments include depreciation, amortization, as well as one-time income expenses. Depreciation and amortization decreased by JPY 1.0 billion due to completion of amortization for certain intangible assets and the impact of yen appreciation. Adjustments from EBITDA to adjusted EBITDA include restructuring costs of JPY 300 million in the previous year and JPY 500 million in the current year. Additionally, the previous year included JPY 600 million of one-time income. Next is consolidated balance sheet. Below is a brief explanation of the main assets and liabilities. Goodwill balance was JPY 212.1 billion, an increase of JPY 5.6 billion. This was due to the weakening yen against the euro. There was no change on a local currency basis.

Interest bearing debt decreased by JPY 7.6 billion to reach JPY 247.7 billion, despite repayment of JPY 11.9 billion due to foreign exchange effect. Furthermore, existing borrowings maturing in June 2026 were reclassified as current liabilities. However, these are structured with refinancing as a prerequisite. Discussions with financial institutions will continue during this fiscal year. ROE, calculated based on profits over the most recent 12 months, was 4.2% for the quarter, due to year-on-year decrease in profit attributable to owners of the parent. Cash and cash equivalents decreased by JPY 6.3 billion during the second quarter. Operating cash flow was JPY 12.1 billion, while capital expenditure was JPY 4.4 billion. Financial cash flow, including repayments of borrowings and lease liabilities, dividend payments, and others, resulted in an outflow of JPY 17.6 billion. This concludes the explanation of the results. Next, I will explain the revised full-year forecasts.

The revised full-year forecast is unchanged. Operating profit forecast is revised upward by JPY 2.6 billion. I will explain each segment changes on the following pages. As an assumption, the foreign exchange rate, based on the recent trend, is JPY 171 to the euro and JPY 146 to the dollar. In September, we announced the transfer of CGM business, and currently, we are in the final stage of the agreement negotiation. As planned, we plan to close this in January 2026. In this forecast, we included the impact amount reasonably expected at this time. In September, we communicated the signs of the possible impairment and potential need for the impairment, but this time, we have implemented the impairment test, and currently, we do not believe it is necessary to book the impairment loss, and this has already been audited by the auditor.

Operating profit forecast is revised upward by JPY 2.6 billion, and JPY 6.8 billion FX losses recorded through Q2 were factored in. The pre-profit before tax, JPY 8 billion, is down JPY 4.2 billion. After adjusting the tax impact, the profit attributable to owners of parent is revised to JPY 4.4 billion, down JPY 3 billion. FX losses are unrealized and the valuation loss, so it does not impact the cash. We maintain the annual dividend forecast. Page 23 shows the comparison to previous forecast by segment. In diabetes management for CGM, we factored in its planned transfer and the consolidation in Q4 and onwards. For BGM, the strong results through Q2 and favorable forex changes are included. Overall segment revenue revised upward. Revenue of the healthcare solution is revised downward based on the CRO business results and the recent orders.

Revenue of diagnostics and life sciences is revised downward based on the assumption that the sluggish equipment demand affected by the market stagnation due to the tariff and reduced government subsidy, mainly in the U.S., will persist. In others, upward revision is made as negative risk on the revenue we expected was eliminated. With higher BGM revenue and planned consolidation of the CGM, diabetes management operating profit is expected to increase by JPY 4.2 billion. For healthcare solutions, our assumption is to offset the lower revenue with cost reduction and others. Diagnostics and life sciences' lower revenue will lead to lower utilization. Operating profit is revised down by JPY 2.6 billion. Revenue impact and one-time cost review included the overall operating profit forecast is revised upward by JPY 2.6 billion to JPY 20 billion. Page 24 shows newly revised forecast compared to the previous forecast as of August and November.

Finally, updates on U.S. tariff impact. P&L impact year to date, including additional tariff impact, was about JPY 800 million. Progress of countermeasures to optimize supply chain, including review of the production, is on track. Based on the effects of the already implemented price increases in Q3 onward and cost reduction, full-year forecast of JPY 1 billion-JPY 1.5 billion impact remains unchanged at this point. That concludes my presentation.

ただいまより質疑応答に移ります。回答者として。

We will now move on to the Q&A session. Joining us as responder is Senior Executive Vice President and COO, CSO, Koichiro Sato. If you have questions, please click the right-hand button. When your name is called out, your microphone setting is changed. Please unmute, state your name and affiliation, and ask questions. If you have questions, please raise your hand.

いただいた順にお声がけいたします。

I will call on you in the order of your raising hand. First, Yamaguchi-sama, please unmute and ask questions. Do you hear me? Yes, we can hear you. Thank you. Good morning. This is Citi Yamaguchi. The first question is about biomedical. You revised the forecast, but Q1, Q2, there was no big impact. Including the situation in the United States, the business situation is grim. These impacts will appear stronger in the second half or already appearing in the first half or from 2026 fiscal year and beyond? Biomedical, just as you mentioned, is being impacted by the U.S. situation where the companies are restrained in making capital investments. That effect is already with us in the first half, and that will also be so in the second half. Probably in fiscal year 2025, probably in the second, equipment sales will continue.

The market condition will continue to be not favorable, which is reflected in the forecast. That is why we are currently focusing on launching new recurring consumable businesses. Also, at the same time, we are trying to implement measures to mitigate the tariffs, just as Yamaguchi mentioned. We are transferring the production sites and making efficiency in production so that we can ensure margins. These are the measures that we are doing in FY 2025. What about FY 2026? We will continue to monitor the market situation. In Europe, some pharmaceutical companies are shifting their production sites in the United States and making capital investment in the United States. Probably within 2026, the North American market will recover. I would like to augment. First of all, the market impact is already with us. What about in the second half?

We do not think that the situation will be worse. According to our plans, compared to Q1, Q2, in the second half, because of the seasonality, sales will be up. We have our plans, and against the plans, probably there will be a wider gap from the reality to our plan. That is why we have revised downward the forecast. What about FY 2026 and beyond? This year, the market situation will not improve. In 2026 and beyond, we will make the plans. All in all, as Deguchi mentioned, major pharmaceutical companies are investing in the United States, and they have already made the announcements. Of course, we will have to see whether these investments will be materialized. From the second half this year through next year, if these things happen, then probably we will see the comeback of the U.S. market. Thank you.

Another question regarding BGM and some CGM. Your profit margin is good for BGM, just as you mentioned, in the second quarter. You said that that situation will continue throughout the year. I believe that the BGM market per se is not favorable. Do you think that this higher profit margin for BGM will continue through FY 2026 and on? Thank you for the question. Just as I explained in Q1, we are seeing the recovery in the profit margin. There are four factors behind that. The first is the COGS improvement and SG&A improvement, and then amortization depreciation favorable. Also, excluding CGM is the fourth factor. COGS improvement, that is gross profit improvement. We succeeded in hiking prices in the United States, and that is offsetting the decrease in the volume.

Also, with regard to COGS, we have been improving the operations, particularly regarding inbound logistics. We are consolidating the procurement. There were meter restraints that I explained in Q1. In Q2, we are making investments into meters, particularly in the U.S. market. On the other hand, in China, there are not profitable channels, and also some markets in the Middle East. In these low-margin areas, we are restraining our investment into meters. We are investing in areas where there are perfect gross margins, but otherwise, we will not. We are putting priorities. With regard to SG&A, we have been making efficiencies there, and we are reducing the professional fees and reducing the staffs. Also, amortization and depreciation are, as I have already explained, GP improvement 25%, SG&A improvement 35%, amortization and depreciation 40%. These are some of the percentages contributing to the improvement.

What about FY 2026 and beyond? This situation will continue. With regard to the market, the BGM market will be down by 10%. We are the number one position in the market. We are gaining the market share from our competitors. Into the next fiscal year on, we will continue these initiatives. That is why our forecast will not change markedly. This has been the answer. Let me augment. In VCP or mid-year plan, we said that BGM sales will be stabilized, and probably CAGR will be -2.4%. That is in our VCP. The major factor is to stabilize the situation in the United States. The measures that I have explained are successful, and these are contributing to the sales profits. CGM is also increasing the penetration. Probably the CGM downsize is a little bit smaller.

I believe that our priority is getting the market share of BGM in major markets. We are making sure that we will be in tandem with what we mentioned in VCP. Thank you.

続きまして、林 亮太郎様、お願いいたします。

Next, Ryotaro Hayashi.

モルガンスタンレー証券、林。

Yes, Hayashi from Morgan Stanley Securities. I hope you can hear me. Yes, thank you. Two questions. First of all, about the CGM, the transfer. Originally, 26 March, the CGM's revenue and operating loss were factored in. I think that the numbers were not disclosed. This time, now the effect of the consolidation is included in your guidance. At this timing, the Q4 CGM revenue and also the deficit, what were the size of them that you assume? Maybe this time you will be able to tell us. I would like to know that. The reason I am asking this is that the next fiscal year CGM revenue, that would be gone. To what extent should we deduct that from the guidance? That is the reason I am asking this question. Yes, thank you.

The forecast and what we factor in the contract negotiation has not yet finally over. It has to do with the negotiations. I cannot really talk about the numbers. The way of thinking is that at the time of the MU, I think we explained that as of last year, JPY 9 billion operating loss is what we have. For this fiscal year, this would be less. That was included in our original plan. Q4 only. That means one-fourth of that number. In addition to that, the transactions incurred one-time cost. We need to deduct that. We reflected that in the revised forecast. In that sense, this plan itself, we believe is rational, reasonable, and the CGM impact itself is not increasing so much. Thank you. I see. Thank you very much.

My second question is, in September, CGM business transfer was explained. At that time, Q2, the BGM, mainly BGM, the diabetes management, the potential impairment of the Goodwill might happen. That's what you said. You said this time you did test the impairment, but you think that it's not necessary. In Q4, when you close fourth quarter, making the judgment again, is there any remaining risks? If the probability of having the impairment loss, is it the same or is it lower? If you can explain the nuance there. Yes, thank you. In that sense, IFRS, based on the IFRS, we do the impairment test at least once a year. As of the 1st of January, when we close the full-year numbers, we would have another test. In this case, by announcing the CGM transfer, there were signs and possibilities.

At the time of the quarter end, we implemented this impairment test. When we close the full year, we would, of course, conduct another test. If there are any signs of the impairment, we would also do the test. That would be the rule or process. As for the risks, this time impairment test was done. Currently, looking at the BGM performance and the progress, we made a judgment. From now on, for example, say that the interest rate goes up significantly or the BGM performance comes down significantly, without those, the conclusion is not likely to change in a six-month time period. If you ask me whether it's possible or not, I have to say yes, but the risk in comparison to the September time frame is lower, I believe. I see. Thank you very much.

ありがとうございました。

Thank you.

続きまして、トーク。

Next, Tokai Tokyo, Mr. Yoshida, please.

お疲れ様です。Tokaidokyo Yoshidaです。

This is Tokai Tokyo Yoshida. Do you hear me? Yes, we can hear you.

はい。今回初めて。

This is the first time for me to ask questions. There are three questions.

まず、BGMのところ。

First is on BGM.

外部環境はそれほど。

External environment is not changed. That's what you said. You are increasing your share.

例えば、その。

For instance.

聞いたというところであります。

You had initiatives, and you said that these initiatives were successful. Could you please elaborate on that?

あと、例えば、その他社で撤退するような。

And also.

があるかどうかも含めて教えていただけますか。

Are your competitors withdrawing from the BGM market or not?

はい。ありがとうございます。

Thank you for the question. First of all, with regard to external environment, as we mentioned at the outset, BGM market per se is minus 4%-minus 5% down every year. The trend will continue in the future. The reasons are as follows: because we have CGM that is an alternative product, which is penetrating into a certain segment of the market, just as Yamaguchi mentioned.

そのCGMが入っていくセグメントという。

The CGM segment is there, and some percentage of the patients are type 1 patients or serious type 2 diabetic patients requiring insurance. These are the targets for CGM. In the past few years, the market accelerated. That is why the BGM market is down.

今、この現状のトレンドの中で、我々が見て。

Considering the current trend, we believe that the CGM penetration reached a certain level of plateau for the time being. From this point on, the penetration will be gradual. That is the basis of -4%, -5% for BGM. Another reason is that we have a high share in the BGM market, and there was a mentioning of competitors. Competitors, particularly in the United States, because of economic reasons, filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. We are taking advantage of that, capturing their market in the United States. Also in Europe, we are strong already. The competitors, some are withdrawing, some are continuing. We are focusing on strong markets to further grow our market share. That is why, although the BGM market is down, we are increasing our shares in the markets where we are strong.

That is how we are doing the offset. That is the plan in our VCP, although this is the first year of mid-term plan. So far, these initiatives are successful.

そこはどういうところっていうのは、最近ですか、それとも以前の話ですか。

Is this FY 2025? Or you said Chapter 11, that Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in the United States. Did it happen last year? No, it happened this year. Some of your competitors filed for bankruptcy protection. The second question is about biomedical. You said European companies, pharmaceutical companies are investing in the United States.

ここでも競合状況としてどうなのか。

What about the competitive situation there? For instance, ultra-low temperature freezer. You have a certain share in the United States, and you have a share of 10% in Europe. European companies making inroads into the United States. You have a 10% share in Europe, which is not high compared to your market share in the United States. These European companies are going to the United States. What about your performance in these markets? You have a 20% market share in the US market? Will this be adversely impacted? What about the competitive situation and your forecast? Thank you. In the United States, we believe that we have the existing market share maintained. We have major pharmaceutical companies in Europe, biotech companies in Europe with production sites. They are investing several tens of billions of dollars to shift the production bases in the United States.

That is to avoid the tariff measures in the United States. At that point in time, we have the strong dealer sales network and direct sales channels. We have both. We believe that these systems will have the strong base there. We have also the research-based academia through which we will be able to utilize our existing new channels to further expand the market share in the United States. Let me augment. The market share is a market share for the total North American market. We have dealings with global pharmaceutical companies. Of course, in the United States, our competitor has a larger share. Our product is of high quality. We are targeting large pharmaceutical companies. Considering these, the relations with large pharmaceutical companies will be able to beat the competitors in the U.S. market. Thank you. The last question from my side.

Last year, you announced VCP, and you will withdraw from CGM. I believe that that will impact the revenue. What about profits? Will there be any change from transferring the CGM business? Thank you. This time in VCP, with regard to the figures in profit, we use profit margins and also in terms of the revenue growth rate. We are not disclosing the absolute figures, but the percentage of growth. That is our target. We would like to make sure that we can realize the contents of VCPs. We believe that we are on track with the progress. If that is the case, 4%-5% is the revenue growth. Will this figure be impacted by CGM sales? There will be no change? Just as you said. In CGM, we said that in VCP, we said that CGM will be a priority.

That is why this ought to have the impact. We would like to make sure that this can be offset by businesses in other areas. If that is the case, the sales will be done. The negative impact on the profit will be gone. The profit margin will be improved. Probably not disclose the absolute values, but probably the absolute profit level or the margin level will not be changed. Yes, we are making sure that we strengthen our portfolio management. Our goal is achieving the percentage targets. That is what we mentioned in VCP. At this point in time, it is exactly as you mentioned. This is rolling. This will not be changed? We are not thinking of changing the content. Thank you. Thank you very much. We have some time left. Are there any questions?

If you have any questions, please raise your hand.

では、竹内さん、お願いいたします。

Okay, Takeuchi, go ahead.

お世話になっております。BOB証券の竹内と申します。

Thank you, Takeuchi from BOB Securities. One minor point about the tariffs prospect I'd like to clarify. In Q1, JPY 200 million and JPY 600 million. That means that probably it will be higher than your expectations from JPY 1 billion to JPY 1.5 billion. Are there anything that is included in the second half initiatives specifically? Yes, thank you. In that sense, now JPY 800 million at the end of the first half, and for the full year, it is JPY 1 billion to JPY 1.5 billion. It is at the higher level, as you pointed out correctly. The reason for that is that we calculated based on the 10%, but there were additional tariffs. That is one of the reasons. As for our initiatives, already the prices were increased as of the 1st of April. The effect of this, or the timing of it in Q2, was not 100%.

In Q3, Q4, it would become more obvious, or it would be realized. One to 1.5 billion, and at the high level, we are trending at that level. We would like to make sure that we can harvest. The tariff impact increasing further is not something that we expect. We would like to control well so that we can achieve those targets. I see. Thank you very much. Additional comment? That tariffs impact is the biggest in the life science. As Yamaguchi mentioned, the price increase is done starting from Q2. The effect of that will be fully realized in the second half. There will be an additional price increase. Securing the margin in the first year of the VCP is the most important thing. SG&A cost reduction, especially we have multiple plants in life science.

Transferring the products among those plants so that we can provide or ship products to the United States with lower tariffs and increasing the production capacity in the United States. That is what we are trying to do. We accelerate it in the second half. There could be a higher impact from the tariff in the second half, but we will be taking more mitigation plans to offset that. Thank you. Price increase and supply chain initiatives will continue. I see. Thank you very much.

他にご質問のある方いらっしゃいませんでしょうか。

Are there any other questions?

では、ご質問いただきました皆様、どうもありがとうございました。

Thank you very much.

以上と申しまして、説明会を終了させていただきます。

Everyone who has questions. This concludes the briefing session. Thank you very much for taking time out of your business.

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