Earnings call transcript: Primo Water Q3 2025 sees stock dip despite earnings beat

Primo Water Corp reported its Q3 2025 earnings, showcasing a notable earnings per share (EPS) beat with an actual EPS of $0.41 compared to the forecast of $0.35, marking a 17.14% surprise. Despite the positive earnings, the company’s stock experienced a significant drop, falling 18.18% to $18.54 during open market trading. This decline follows a pre-market dip of 14.17%. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.766 billion, significantly surpassing the forecast of $614.3 million, yet reflecting a 1.6% year-over-year decline.

Key Takeaways

• Primo Water exceeded EPS expectations with a 17.14% surprise.
• Revenue significantly outperformed forecasts but declined year-over-year.
• Stock price fell sharply by 18.18% despite strong earnings performance.
• Premium water brands showed robust growth with a 44% year-over-year increase.
• The company is investing in new facilities to expand production capacity.

Company Performance

Primo Water’s performance in Q3 2025 demonstrated strength in its premium water brands, with Mountain Valley and Saratoga experiencing a 44% growth. The company’s EBITDA margin improved by 180 basis points to 22.9%, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 6.8% to $404.5 million. However, net sales declined by 1.6% compared to the previous year, and the company continues to face challenges with its direct delivery channel.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $1.766 billion, down 1.6% year-over-year
• EPS: $0.41, beating the forecast of $0.35
• EBITDA: $404.5 million, up 6.8% year-over-year
• EBITDA margin: 22.9%, improved by 180 basis points
• Total debt: $5.2 billion
• Liquidity: Approximately $1 billion

Earnings vs. Forecast

Primo Water’s actual EPS of $0.41 exceeded the forecasted $0.35, resulting in a 17.14% surprise. Revenue of $1.766 billion also surpassed expectations significantly, given the forecast was $614.3 million. This performance indicates a strong quarter relative to analyst expectations.

Market Reaction

Despite the earnings beat, Primo Water’s stock fell 18.18% to $18.54, well below its 52-week high of $35.85. The decline was exacerbated by a pre-market drop of 14.17% as investors reacted to the revenue decline and broader market concerns. This sharp decrease in stock price suggests investor apprehension about future growth prospects and market conditions.

Outlook & Guidance

Primo Water anticipates a low single-digit decline in net sales moving forward. The company projects an adjusted EBITDA of $1.45 billion with a 21.8% margin and expects adjusted free cash flow between $740 million and $760 million. The focus remains on enhancing the direct delivery business and optimizing pricing and distribution strategies.

Executive Commentary

CEO Eric Foss emphasized the company’s commitment to growth, stating, "We have to get this business growing and we certainly have plans to do that." He also highlighted the company’s role as a leader in healthy hydration, saying, "Our purpose as the premier healthy hydration company in North America is to hydrate a healthy America each and every day."

Risks and Challenges

• Declining net sales pose a risk to future revenue growth.
• Integration challenges in the direct delivery channel could impact service efficiency.
• High debt levels may constrain financial flexibility.
• Market saturation in the bottled water category could limit expansion.
• Macroeconomic pressures and consumer spending shifts may affect demand.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts focused on the leadership transition and its potential to unlock business potential. Questions also addressed integration challenges in the direct delivery channel and the company’s strategy to return to net customer additions by year-end. The emphasis remained on premium water brands and distribution expansion as key growth drivers.

Full transcript - Primo Water Corp (PRMB) Q3 2025:

Marissa, Conference Operator: Good morning. My name is Marissa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Primo Brands Corporation’s Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Thank you so much. I will now turn the call over to Loven Grossenbacher.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Welcome to Primo Brands Corporation’s Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. The call is being webcast live on Primo Brands’ website at ir.primobrands.com and will be available there for playback. This conference call contains forward looking statements regarding the company’s future financial results and operational trends, estimated synergies, impacts from economic factors and other matters. These statements should be considered in connection with cautionary statements and disclaimers contained in the Safe Harbor statements in this morning’s earnings press release and the company’s quarterly report on Form 10 Q and other filings with the SEC. The company’s actual performance could differ materially from these statements, and the company undertakes no duty to update these forward looking statements except as expressly required by applicable law.

A reconciliation of any non GAAP financial measures discussed during the call with the most comparable measures in accordance with GAAP when the data is capable of being estimated is included in the company’s third quarter earnings announcement released earlier this morning or in the Investor Relations section of the company’s website at ir.primobrands.com in addition to slides accompanying today’s webcast to assist you through our discussion. We have included a copy of the presentation and a supplemental earnings deck on our website. Certain information discussed on this call concerning our industry and market position is based on information from third party sources that we have not independently verified and is subject to uncertainty. I’m joined today by Dean Metropoulos, a member of the Board of Directors and former Non Executive Chairman Eric Foss, Primo Brands Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and David Haas, our Chief Financial Officer. Our prepared remarks will begin with Dean discussing the leadership transition we announced this morning.

Following that, David will discuss the third quarter performance of Primo Brands and the outlook for the full year 2025. And then Eric will share his thoughts on the business as he steps into the role as Chairman and CEO. Following that, Eric and David will take your questions. With that, I will now turn the call over to Dean.

Dean Metropoulos, Board of Directors, Former Non-Executive Chairman, Primo Brands: Good morning, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. As you have probably seen, this morning, we announced that the Primo Brands Board of Directors appointed Eric Foss as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Eric is an experienced executive, having served as chairman and CEO of global consumer businesses. He has served as director of the company’s board and its predecessor, Primo Water. I welcome Eric’s energy and abilities as a transformative leader.

He’s known for his people first leadership philosophy, brand building experience, operational and executional expertise, and the ability to drive long term growth through customer focus, innovation, and creating a winning culture. He’s highly qualified to lead Primo Brands’ future growth and value creation. I want to also express our deep confidence in the future of Primo Brands with its unique historic brands and unmatched and now highly integrated and efficient national network that will reach consumers in every aspect of their lives. In addition, Primo brands is a major beneficiary of strong tailwinds that are driven by an unprecedented consumer focus on healthy hydration. We’re all very confident that Eric will lead Primo Brands in this exciting new future, and we thank all of you, investors, for their continued support and interest in our Primo Brands.

Thank you. In conversations with the board, as we move into the next phase following our breakthrough merger and integration, now is the right time for me to step away as nonexecutive chairman. I will remain on the board as a director and will support Eric during the transition. Robert will lead the company and the board to pursue other interests. We want to thank him for his hard work and contribution to the consolidation and integration of Primo Water and Blue Triton brands during the past year, and we wish him continued success.

I want to express my deep confidence in Eric as he assumes his new role and thank all of you again for your continued interest in Primo Brands. With that, let us turn the call over to David. Thank you, David.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. As you know, we announced a lot of news this morning. In parallel with today’s management transition, our team has been hard at work decisively executing against our strategy to drive organic brand growth, synergy capture, and operational excellence across our platform as our integration progresses. We are working with a clear sense of urgency to realize our potential as the leading branded bottled water player in North America, an important category that consumers continue to rely on for everyday healthy hydration. We are pleased that improvements in operational and financial performance in our Q3 twenty twenty five results demonstrate the resilience in our business, strength of our brands and success across channels and offerings, reinforcing our confidence that Primo Brands will return to delivering against our long term financial algorithm.

Overall for the third quarter, we generated net sales of $1,766,000,000 a 1.6% comparable year over year decline, but a 90 basis point improvement from the 2.5 comparable year over year decline in the second quarter. Our top line results reflect ongoing unit case volume growth, which increased 0.7% versus the prior year period, with investment in price and promotion in our home and office delivery network as we prioritized customer retention during the quarter. We delivered profitability ahead of expectations with comparable adjusted EBITDA growth of 6.8% year over year to $404,500,000 for a margin of 22.9%. I will discuss these results in more detail shortly. First, let me turn to an update on our integration and synergy capture.

This summer, we worked with a sense of urgency to remediate challenges that emerged in our delivery business, and I am pleased to report that service levels are now back to pre integration levels. Importantly, demand for our five gallon product remains strong as evidenced by the year over year net sales growth for our exchange and refill offerings where we continue to grow distribution. Large format unit volumes also grew sequentially within the quarter, and we anticipate direct delivery customer base improvements as we exit 2025, an important indicator that our integration efforts are back on track. Our delivery service rate or DSR is currently back to approximately 95% consistent with historical levels. And our relationship net promoter score is continuing to trend in a positive direction from July lows.

At the same time, our announced synergy plan remains on track, and we are confident we will achieve the $200,000,000 and $300,000,000 run rate targets by 2025 and 2026 year end, respectively. To date, we have now closed 49 facilities or 16% of our pre merger footprint, while optimizing headcount to enhance productivity and efficiency. This fall, we seamlessly completed our latest round of integration, which gives me confidence in our final two rounds of integration as they are far less complex and will proceed smoothly. We are particularly excited about the future growth and margin prospects as we optimize routes and lean into cross selling our brands, products and services. From our viewpoint, we believe that we are in early innings of consolidating our position as a durable branded category leader.

Pringle brands has a strong arsenal to to drive long term value creation through several foundational elements. First, we are anchored by our iconic brands with deep heritage such as Pullen Spring and Pure Life, coupled with our emerging growth leaders, Saratoga and the Mountain Valley, as well as the Primo brand. Together, these give us great customer awareness and resilience that will help carry our momentum. Second, we enjoy the benefit of being fully integrated from spring sources direct to our consumer as well as one of the few branded beverage companies that owns our own spring assets, which helps us sustain our water stewardship initiatives. Third, Primo Brands is the number one player in The US retail branded bottled water category by volume share.

In Q3, we increased both volume and dollar market share by 15 basis points and by 25 basis points respectively according to Chicana. Primo Brands was the only scaled bottled water company to grow volumes in Q3. Fourth, we expect that our extensive market reach as demonstrated by our access to customers through more than 200,000 retail outlets will help propel us into the second position in liquid refreshment beverages and provide a competitive edge for our business. We are making steady progress towards returning to our growth algorithm and have a clear line of sight to accelerating net sales, profitability gains and increased free cash flows as the calendar advances towards 2026. Now turning to results.

As a reminder, the GAAP financial comparisons in this morning’s press release reflect the Q3 twenty twenty five results of the new Primo brand versus the 2024 results of the legacy Blue Triton business. This is standard GAAP reporting following a merger transaction, which can lead to growth metrics that are not comparable. To assist with the comparisons that include both entities in the prior year period, we will be primarily discussing comparable results while adjusting for the exited Eastern Canadian operations for both years 2024 and 2025. Year to date, comparable net sales were down slightly by 0.5% when compared to the prior year at the nine month mark. When factoring in the leap day impact, normalized comparable net sales decreased by 0.2%.

As a reminder, our year to date net sales results reflect the impact of the Hawkins tornado of approximately $27,000,000 The cumulative impacts of these activities is approximately $45,000,000 which would have put the business slightly ahead versus the prior year. While off our algorithm for 2025, we believe these results demonstrate the resilience of our business even with our short term disruption in the direct delivery business. At the comparable adjusted EBITDA line, we were able to capture a year to date increase of 6.4%, well ahead of our comparable net sales growth, while expanding comparable adjusted EBITDA margin by 140 basis points. With that as a backdrop, let me share the financial details of Q3. Comparable net sales in the quarter were $1,766,000,000 which declined approximately $29,000,000 or 1.6% year over year.

Contributing to our Q3 results was flat volume and pricing mix that was down 1.6 largely due to mix within our non core revenue streams like office coffee services and other investments in the retail channel. Within those results, dispensers and office coffee services contributed approximately $14,000,000 to the quarter’s $29,000,000 year over year reduction, which was as anticipated. Sequentially, net sales increased $36,000,000 from the prior quarter and our year over year decline relative to the year over year decline in the second quarter improved by 90 basis points. Turning to some specifics on the performance. Our branded retail business delivered 2% net sales growth in the quarter, ahead of category growth, driven by exceptional brand strength and remarkable distribution expansion of 12% in total points of distribution.

This strong distribution growth positions us well for future quarters as we expect these new placements will mature into velocity gains. The combination of expanded household reach and enhanced retail presence demonstrates the strength of our brand portfolio and our ability to execute. In Q3, we continued to see strong results from our premium water portfolio products with Mountain Valley and Saratoga. Combined, premium net sales increased more than 44% year over year. Moving into the direct delivery business.

As a reminder, in our slides, we list our main net sales disclosure channels for Primo Brands. Our direct delivery channel includes the home and office delivery business, water filtration, water exchange deliveries to our retail partners, and our office coffee service that we are in the process of winding down by year end. The dispenser and refill businesses are separate and listed across the various retail channels within each of the account relationships. For the quarter, the comparable net sales of direct delivery included a decline of 6.5% or approximately $47,000,000 The office coffee services or OCS business that reports within this disclosure channel accounts for approximately $8,200,000 or 113 basis points of decline, which came in as anticipated. Separately, credits provided to customers in the direct delivery business increased by $3,700,000 year over year in the quarter.

We believe this increase is temporary as we prioritize retention during the integration disruptions and will return to normalized levels as we exit 2025. The cumulative impact of these items was approximately $12,000,000 which would have resulted in the channel being down 4.9% versus the prior year. As we previously shared, our direct delivery integration challenges in q two occurred over a shorter period as the disruptions began in late May through June with Q3 exposed to a longer window of disruption. This disruption was balanced with improving service that continues to this day. It was clear that customers experienced peak disruption in July and the direct delivery business has recovery into quarter end and further to today’s earnings call.

Our goal remains to improve customer volumes to both existing and new household and commercial customers as well resume our cross sell and upsell activities. As a reminder, our home and office delivery business has a known base between residential and commercial customers. Our exchange and retail businesses have an implied user base of customers transacting directly with our retail partners, but we can estimate this from buying patterns. These customers continue to grow uninterrupted through this period. Going forward, new user creation continues through the sale and rent of our dispensers, the razor, as well as new customer sign ups through our digital and club channel opportunities and additional households adopting self-service exchange for refill services.

This led to volume growth in refill and exchange in Q3. Comparable adjusted EBITDA increased 6.8% to $404,500,000 with comparable adjusted EBITDA margins of 22.9%, an increase of 180 basis points versus the prior year. Within these results, our synergy capture continued, although some of the stabilization efforts remain in the business as we improved our product supply and deliveries to meet the demand of our direct delivery customers. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flows. At the end of the third quarter, our debt, gross of deferred financing costs and discounts totaled approximately $5,200,000,000 Our $750,000,000 revolving credit facility remains undrawn at the end of the third quarter, providing us with approximately $612,000,000 of available liquidity after accounting for standby letters of credit totaling approximately $138,000,000 Our liquidity remains strong with approximately $423,000,000 of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet.

When combined with the $612,000,000 of availability under our revolving credit facility, our total liquidity is approximately $1,000,000,000 At the end of the third quarter, our net leverage ratio was 3.37 times. Moving to cash generated from the business, in the third quarter, Primo Brands generated $283,400,000 of cash flow from operations. When accounting for significant items including, but not limited to our integration and merger activities, our cash flow from operations would have totaled $362,400,000 Additionally, we invested $51,300,000 in capital expenditures, excluding integration related and natural disaster Hawkins related capital expenditures, which resulted in adjusted free cash flow of $311,100,000 When compared to the prior year on a combined basis, this resulted in adjusted free cash flow growth of $15,900,000 We also closely track our conversion of adjusted free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA. On a trailing twelve month basis, our adjusted free cash flow totaled $733,900,000 yielding a conversion ratio of 51.9%. Looking ahead, we remain focused on disciplined capital allocation while maintaining a strong balance sheet to support our ongoing integration and organic growth initiatives.

We plan to continue to prioritize reducing our debt to our medium term net leverage target of two to two and a half times and plan to take advantage of opportunities to repurchase shares with our newly authorized share repurchase program. Since our recent authorization, we’ve repurchased $73,200,000 of our stock and approximately 3,000,000 shares. There remains approximately $177,000,000 on our share repurchase authorization. Yesterday, our Board of Directors authorized another quarterly dividend of $0.10 per Class A common share, which represents an 11% increase over last year’s quarterly dividend rate at Primo Water. Before turning to our financial outlook, I want to provide an update on our last international divestiture transaction that closed after our quarter ended.

On 10/23/2025, we completed the sale of our Israel business for approximately $42,000,000 in net proceeds. The sale proceeds will be reflected in our cash balance when we report year end results in February year. I want to thank the local Israel management team and all associates of May Eaton for their tireless efforts in running the business with flawless execution during the last two years. As we know, this has not been a normal operating environment since the events of 10/07/2023, but the team remained focused on serving their customers while also protecting the safety of their fellow associates. Moving to our financial outlook, we remain confident in the progression of the business, notably our retail performance.

Our Q3 retail performance exceeded our estimates, and we remain confident that the business has stabilized from the combination of the impacts post Hawkins tornado and weather events that challenged first half performance. In fact, we continue to gain share in retail scan data and see this momentum building into 2026. Similarly, our exchange and retail businesses experienced strong performance in Q3 and we expect this continue into year end and to 2026. Lastly, our OCS business continues on track with our exit plans and our dispenser business also remains on track with the decline previously stated into year end. Based on recent trade relations, we are likely to enter 2026 with a more favorable tariff environment alleviating some of the headwinds faced in 2025.

Narrowing in on our direct delivery business, we continue to see signs of recovery. The remaining gap between our operational and financial recovery and our original guidance expectation continues to be unit volumes at the customer level. Our product supply was originally disrupted, but we have now stabilized and increased our days on hand of inventory. We continue making progress expanding our customer reach as a result of specific programs. First, we are expanding our club booth programs at Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s, and we are seeing an exciting level of club additions since the end of the quarter.

These partnerships help build awareness, demonstrate our quality, and promote our robust customer service. Second, we have specific strategic digital acquisition campaigns in place to help expand our customer footprint. Our digital marketing team is focusing on increasing our top of funnel and bringing in new customers through various online platforms, including web, social media, and applications. We are seeing strong results from these efforts as our digital customer acquisitions grew 8.2% versus q three of last year. Last, we believe this momentum combined with the reduced customer churn from improved execution and improved public sentiment, is positioning us well to mitigate the volume impact as we turn the page toward 2026.

The outliers are one time activities like Hawkins, dispensers and OCS are all coming in according to our original estimated impact, as is our retail business. With the ongoing recovery in our direct delivery business, this is requiring a shift in our net sales guidance range. We still remain confident in the recovery of the business, but the recovery path is not at the right magnitude to deliver the midpoint of our previous guidance. We now expect a net sales decline in the low single digits versus the prior year. This shift in guidance is solely related to the recovery path of the home and office delivery business within the direct delivery disclosure channel.

On the adjusted EBITDA side, our path of stabilizing our service to customers has offset some of the gains of the synergy capture. However, this will help transition us into 2026 with optimal customer and volume recovery. With that, we are moving our adjusted EBITDA guidance approximately $1,450,000,000 or 21.8% margin, up 180 basis points from prior year. The majority of this shift is resulting flow through of the shift in the net sales guidance with some additional expenses related to supporting the business into year end. We are reiterating our adjusted free cash flow guidance with a range between $740,000,000 to $760,000,000 Looking ahead to 2026, we see several key growth opportunities that we believe will support the return to our algorithm.

First, we are fueling the growth of our premium brand, Mountain Valley and Saratoga, by investing in new capacity, including more than $66,000,000 in our new Hot Springs facility for Mountain Valley, as well as a new bottling factory in Texas for Saratoga. Both brands have been growing consistently robust double digits while being capacity constrained, and these investments will support new highly accretive growth. Second, are focused on sustained total distribution point growth starting with mass and clubs. In September, we were awarded distribution and water exchange at Sam’s Club, adding to the over 1,000 incremental exchange racks installed earlier this year to support our customer demand. This distribution is expected to drive accretive and profitable growth in our large format network, particularly as we introduce higher value regional spring water brands and implement harmonized pricing actions across our exchange and refill offerings.

Simultaneously, we continue to see strong performance from our case pack distribution in alternative channels like convenience, food service, and omnichannel. Finally, we are preparing to implement pricing actions across our retail exchange and refill offerings. While we continue to prioritize retention in our home and office network for direct delivery, we are charting this offering’s pricing strategy, which we will prioritize in 2026. In the meantime, are taking price, pricing and harmonized terms for dispenser purchases in our club channel effective last week. At retail, we are sharpening our capabilities to better blend price and mix growth with volume growth by improving trade spend efficiency, taking price, and optimizing revenue growth management and price pack architecture.

These activities will contribute to our 2026 top line growth. Looking ahead, I am confident in our ability to deliver value for all stakeholders. We are a category leader in North America with a comprehensive portfolio to serve all usage occasions. We have a differentiated coast to coast network, powerful reach in retail, and a robust delivery footprint. And we continue to act with urgency, agility, and focus on operational excellence and the best in class service that our customers have come to expect from Primo Brands, reinforcing our performance in 2026 and beyond.

With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Eric. Thank you, David. It’s great to be here and thanks to everyone for joining us today. Let me start by saying what a privilege it is to be Primo Brands new Chairman and CEO. For those of you who don’t know me, I’ve spent my entire career running global consumer centric asset and people intensive business models in the food and beverage industries.

As CEO, I believe the purpose of the company is really the centerpiece of any enterprise. Our purpose as the premier healthy hydration company in North America is to hydrate a healthy America each and every day. I’d like to thank all of my Primo Brands teammates for their passion and tireless efforts in focusing on our consumers and customers every day. Over the last couple of years, as a member of the Board of Directors of Legacy Primo and now Primo Brands, I’ve had a front row seat and a hand in helping to create Primo Brands to be a bigger, stronger and faster company with not just a purpose, but with promise and a bright, bright future. Since coming together about a year ago, our team has made a lot of progress.

There’s still more work to do to achieve our full potential, consistently meet our customers’ expectations and deliver results that are consistent with our commitment to our shareholders. I feel blessed to step into the CEO role of a company that has strong leading brands across all consumer consumption and channel purchase options. I’m also fortunate to have an exceptional and flexible go to market system that helps us drive speed, reach and frequency that aims to meet or exceed the expectations of our customers. We have a passionate, capable and committed team and I’m a big believer in the phrase the team with the best players wins. Let me spend a minute sharing some of my thoughts on where we are just about one year into our journey as Primo Brands.

First, the investment thesis communicated at our Investor Day in early twenty twenty five is fully intact. We compete in an incredibly attractive category. Bottled water isn’t just the largest beverage category in The United States, it’s continuing to grow. The long term outlook is powered by an aging population and an increased focus on health and wellness. What’s just as important, our products are sourced right here at home.

We’re locally manufactured and more than 98% of our sales come from The United States. Primo Brands is the number one player in The U. S. Retail branded bottled water category by volume share. Our portfolio of leading brands have deep heritage and consumer loyalty.

We have a diversified portfolio with the potential to serve people when they want, where they want and how they want to hydrate. From iconic regional spring brands to pure and premium offerings, We give consumers a choice. And when it comes to premium, we have an unmatched portfolio with tremendous potential with our Saratoga Springs and Mountain Valley brands. We’re going to keep investing in our capabilities in building these brands and expanding distribution so that they can reach their full potential. Just last week, we broke ground on a new Greenfield production facility for Mountain Valley in Hot Springs, Arkansas, set to open in 2026.

This merger has given us an opportunity to unlock the true power of Primo through synergy capture, ongoing cost and productivity that can be either reinvested in growth or expanding our margins. Over the coming days and weeks, my focus is simple, to listen and learn from our consumers, our customers, our employees and our shareholders. That will help shape our agenda for the future. In the near term my focus really centers on four areas. First is to get the business growing.

We’ll do that by building deeper connections with our consumers, focusing on brand building and innovation and making sure we sell, serve and execute with excellence. We’ll tap into the full potential of our two leading premium brands Saratoga Springs and Mountain Valley. Second, we’re going to raise our game in customer service. We’ll sharpen our service and execution, making sure we fully address and improve customer service levels. My third focus is on creating a winning culture, one that’s anchored in performance and recognition by ensuring we recognize the hard work and achievement of our people every day.

And finally I’ll work with this dedicated team to make sure we deliver on our financial commitments by growing the top line, driving earnings, generating free cash flow and creating lasting value for our shareholders. In closing, thank you for your continued interest in Primo Brands. Thanks, Eric. To ensure we address as many of your questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question only. And if we have time remaining, we will re poll for additional questions.

Operator, please open the line for questions.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Thank you so much. And your first question comes from Derek Lessard with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Yes. Good morning, everybody. I just had one for me. Is there anything that fundamentally changed from the time you closed last year to now? I mean, you had a hiccup in Q2 that seems to be fixed.

Anything that we should be thinking about that justified the leadership change? Thanks, Derek. This is David. You know, I think, again, the board felt this was the appropriate time for a change. They’ve made that change with Eric stepping into the role.

Fundamentally, no. I mean, from the macro perspective, our consumer remains very healthy. The category remains very healthy. In the retail part of our business, the share gains continue to express the brand strength that we possess and how our consumers are gravitating to those brands, notably the premium side, which again put another quarter up of 44 growth. This all largely remains contained to the home and office side within the direct delivery channel, But no.

I think, broadly speaking, this was the time for a change, and that’s what happened. And Derek, it’s it’s Derek. Good morning. If if you wouldn’t mind, I just make a make a brief comment. I think, you know, as I step in, I think, the Board felt like this was the right step for the company at this point in its journey.

I think David referenced that. It’s really all around maximizing the full potential of this business. So I want to emphasize that the long term investment thesis here is still fully intact. Right? We have a very attractive category, large and growing.

As you continue to see consumer tailwinds around health and wellness and hydration, that’s going to continue to be at the forefront of their decision making matrix. And we’re the number one player. We’ve got leading brands in the quarter. We actually saw an improvement in household penetration. We saw volume growth on the retail side along with some share momentum.

I really do think that the long term kind of value creation thesis and the financial model is still fully intact. We have an issue that, as you mentioned, started a quarter ago that we’ve got to get our hands around, which is really around last mile direct delivery. Okay. Thanks for that. That’s great detail.

Then just maybe one follow-up to that. David, is it I guess is it safe to assume that the majority of the integration challenges are now behind you guys? Yes. Again, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, product availability and stability and days on hand is back to their normal potential. Most of the routes are, you know, performing at or above expectations from pre merger.

And then when you look at some of the sort of consumer oriented data points, call volumes are now back below sort of pre integration levels. And then consumer sentiment, while that I understandably, you know, takes a little bit of time to rebuild trust, those that are choosing to post are starting to improve their sentiment and, you know, the large negative sentiment spikes we saw during the peak integration challenges have pretty much, you know, dissipated. So we feel very comfortable there. It’s just a matter of time of resuming volumes to those customers and continuing day in and day out of building trust back with those customers. Okay.

And congrats, Eric. Looking forward to working with you. Thanks, Derek.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Please go ahead.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions and all the color. I I wanted to ask I know we’ll get into a lot of detail in terms of the numbers, but high level, either for Dean or Erica both. We had to discuss Hawkins.

That said, the integrate you know, much more complex and challenging than we expected it or believed it to be. Was it simply a case of moving too quickly, or are there sort of naturally larger dis synergies, you know, at least initially involved than expected, projected? Any high level thoughts there would be really appreciated. Sure, Daniel. It’s Eric.

I’ll I’ll take that. I think, again, to use the term, I think most of the direct delivery disruption has been self inflicted. And, you know, sometimes mergers can be complicated and and more complex than maybe even anticipated going into them. I do think we probably moved too far too fast on some of the various integration work streams. You know, there’s no doubt that that speed impacted product supply.

There’s no doubt that that speed impacted, you know, our ability to get through a lot of the warehouse closures and and route realignment without, you know, disruption. And the ultimate, you know, output of that was the customer service issues that we’ve highlighted. There also were I believe some just integration issues related to the technology. Move over, But at the end of the day, as David said, the team has really been and continues to work hard to address those and and correct those. I think in the quarter, David highlighted this, we we saw continued improvement on multiple fronts.

Think on the product supply front we’re pretty much corrected on that relative to in stock conditions, but we still have work to do at the moment of truth around making sure our deliveries are on time with the right product. We did see each of the kind of process metrics around customer call volume and did see both improvements in the quarter on customer stat scores. But again, there is more work to do on this front to completely get the issue solved and corrected. Really helpful. A quick follow-up.

Are there if we sort of look at Q3 as a baseline, is is there more cost investments that’ll need to be made in terms of you know, routes, drivers, customer service, marketing, etcetera, kind of more permanent costs that may need to incur relative to our initial expectations to maintain that customer service? Yeah, Dan. This is David. You’d be right there. You know, across q two and q three, we started to move some routes back in to stabilize success rate across the customer visit.

Obviously, we’ve had some, what I’ll call, middle mile or inter branch transfer costs to sort of keep product supply stable. Those will largely dissipate. And again, once we have a more stable and consistent pattern of delivery success, which has been happening post quarter to today’s call, that will allow us to start to slowly work back out some of the excess routes or what I’ll call overtime or weekend support, which will bring our units per route up. And as you are familiar, you know, legacy Primo Water really had a large drive toward that productivity at the route level. That will resume.

And as we head into ’26, we’ll really start attacking miles, which was really part of the main benefit of this merger which was the density of the route between the two customer bases. So yes, would say that in short we’ve had some surges in cost to both handle call center, handle routes and the labor across the middle mile. And those things will start to unwind as we exit the year. And that puts us back into allowing the synergy capture to start to reveal itself more clearly in the P and L. Thanks, David.

I look forward to hearing more from Eric, and I’ll circle back with my follow ups. Thank you. Thank you.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from Eric Serrata with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Eric Serrata, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: So a shorter term question and the longer term one. In terms of the short term, can you help us unpack the fourth quarter guidance between direct delivery and retail? It would seem that if retail is going to be growing even modestly, the guidance implies a pretty steep decline in direct delivery. And, you know, along with that, like, what was the exit rate? Whether you wanna talk September or or recent weeks, like, what is h HOD running in terms of a year on year rate now?

And then longer term, just wanted to circle back on the prior question, make sure I understood correctly, you’re expecting the incremental cost to dissipate. Are you reaffirming the earlier back from February, the 26%, 27% EBITDA margin targets? Or should we assume that between or EBITDA dollar targets? Or should we assume that even if the majority of these costs dissipate that there is some incremental costs that will be ongoing that will kind of lower the earnings power versus what you previously thought? Thank you.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: No problem. Thank you, Eric. So, yeah, as mentioned, you know, a lot of the let’s go through the exit categories. So, like, office coffee, exiting on trajectory, the dispenser headwind from tariffs, exiting on trajectory, exchange and refill performing to their pretty regular nice growth, nice consistent volumes. And then the retail business, obviously the largest part of our business, once we’ve been through the Hawkins moment, if you will, and you know, weather being less of a challenge, it’s gonna perform and exit the year sort of on track with our previous revision back in August, which has about a two percent second half exit rate.

So we feel very confident there. Obviously, that leaves us now with the direct delivery business, which is largely the HOD component. As I mentioned, I wanted to clarify just for people who are curious what all goes into that disclosure line in our earnings supplement, and that’s largely the HOD part. And so, we are at a moment where we’re successfully visiting customers on schedule. It’s all it’s, you know, accurately and to the maximum potential fulfilling their order, whether that be in the base five gallon unit, whether that be in a case pack unit, or a premium unit that comes off the route.

So, again, most of that exit challenge remains just fulfilling volumes to the appropriate level, but we have greatly reduced friction by missing their original dates or things that led to call center or negative sentiment online. Transitioning to the second part of your question around margins, we obviously will have a lower base as we ideally exit the year at 1,450,000,000 in EBITDA and approximately 22% margin. From there, we do intend to again unwind costs at the end of this year and early in Q1 and then resume sort of our margin expansion walk. Dollars obviously will be slightly different than the original outline. We are not changing our synergy capture targets.

And obviously, we’ll look at 2026 when we provide full year guidance likely in February. So again, I think it remains a very healthy story, a very healthy exit on service that’s helping sustain our customer retention at this point. But it’s really getting back into the merits of this original deal, which is the right route count, the right drivers, the right units per route and the right support cost in the business. And Eric, I would just add to David’s comments. I think, as I mentioned earlier the investment thesis is intact but the long term algorithm is also doable and I want to make sure you hear that from my perspective.

We have to get this business growing and we certainly have plans to do that But at the same time, we do continue to have margin opportunities. And so I think the way to think about this is there are multiple value creation levers available to us, multiple growth vectors. Obviously, the synergy capture is is on track and it’s been executed pretty well and we’ll have ongoing cost and productivity initiatives as well that should lead to improved profitability, free cash flow generation and conversion and wealth creation, value creation going forward. So again, I want to make sure that is fully recognized.

Eric Serrata, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Great. I’ll pass it on. Thank you.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Eric, congratulations. Look forward to working with you again. Have a couple of questions on your direct delivery business. I guess, first, I really want to make sure I understand what drove the sequential deterioration in Q3.

I mean, you lose more customers in Q3 than what you lost in Q2? And then I guess I’m trying to understand why the implied decline in Q4 is worse if service is improving. And then ultimately, curious if you expect these declines to persist into the first half of next year as well. And do you have any visibility into a return to your long term algo for your total company of the 3% to 5%? I mean, we think about that more of a second half twenty six or ’27 story?

Just any help there would be appreciated. Thank you.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Sure, Bonnie. Thanks. This is David. Again, we believe that July was basically the peak disruption in customers where our ad was not outpacing sort of the churn or the challenge from sort of our integration friction. As we’ve exited Q3 and entered into October, that has largely stabilized.

We believe we’ll be at a point where we will be able to get to a net positive customer position in the month itself as we exit the year. And that requires us to then continue to recuperate some of those lost volumes from, you know, that period of time, if you will, of where that ultimate friction occurred with the consumer and our delivery customer. So it’s largely isolated solely to the home and office side. You know, exchange is a business that runs off that truck. That business has resumed its growth as the consumer is shopping every day at our you know regional and national chains like Lowe’s, Walmart, Home Depot, etcetera.

When you move into next year, Q1 obviously was a 3% positive quarter, 4.2 I believe when you LEAP adjusted. So that will be obviously a difficult quarter to compare based on the exit rate and sort of our run rate within that home and office delivery business. But our optimism remains in the other parts of the company. And again, we’ll continue to repair customer volumes in the home and office side that will get us back towards that long term algorithm. But we’ll comment specifically on ’26 and longer term outlooks in February.

Eric, anything else you want to add there? All

Marissa, Conference Operator: right. Thank you. I’ll pass it on. Your next question comes from Steve Towers with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: I guess following up on that. So if I heard you right, then net customer add losses will be assuming, don’t know where we are entering the quarter, but if we’re going exit the quarter positive, they should be down relatively thinly, relatively narrowly, which implies that the the sales decline in direct delivery is gonna be a combination of either just lower lower velocity on those customers or lower value per customer because of because of price inducements or what have you. So is that right? What is the kind of the estimate around those variables? And then how do those how do the velocity and the kind of the value per customer pricing kind of dynamic flow into next year as you get back to net customer adds in your thinking?

Yes. Thanks, Steve, the question. It’s David. With regard to the customers, again, in the closing months here of 2025, we’ll be at the monthly level we believe believe we’ll be back to an ad position. It’ll take us a few months to sort of repair some of the losses.

Again, what we really focus is on volume. So in the past, you know, using the exchange business, using the refill business and other things that, you know, consumed five gallon units along with the home and office delivery side, we believe we can get back to volume growth. That volume growth is also then complemented by upsell and premium that comes off route. At this point, part of the disruption we really focused on was getting five gallon supply stabilized back into the hands of our branches, back into the hands of our consumers or customers. And as that stabilizes, that should help improve.

As we head into ’26, we’re gonna look across price pack architecture for the entire company, whether that be retail, premium, our retail oriented five gallon products like exchange or refill, or the specific harmonization activities that occur in HOD, which was part of the original thesis that we had of bringing these businesses together with, you know, what I would call the pricing matrix that was not aligned appropriately for how we wanted to run the business at the local market level. So those will be all areas available for us with regard to growth factors that we can sort of improve as we continue to work through the customer part. Okay. Just to clarify, when you say net customer adds on a monthly basis, are you saying you’re be adding in December versus November? Are gonna just are you saying you’re gonna be adding in December versus last December?

Yeah. We would just see in the month itself. The ads less the quit of the particular month would be back to a positive position in the month itself. And as you the more months you string together of that outcome, you obviously start to replace sort of the trough of your base. Right.

So as versus the November? That sounds great. Yes. Okay. Thank you.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was just hoping to see if you can speak to the kind of consumer dynamics in the purified water in particular.

I know you had to increase some promo during the quarter to support some of the affordability we have been seeing in the consumer side. Can you comment to that? And then another question is how you’re seeing distribution of the premium segment on the retail side, obviously, unfolding and and how you can see this. Obviously, you had this 46% growth in the in the premium water segment. How we should be thinking as we enter 2026?

Any particular gains in distribution or even on premise or off premise that you wanted to highlight? And and from there, also, how you’re gonna balance this price package factor as we go into next year. And finally, welcome Eric. Looking forward to working with you.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Thanks Andrea, it’s Eric. I’ll start with David Gillan. But I think if you really look at the consumer and how the consumer is engaging with the category in our brands, there’s really a lot to like. I think first and foremost, while you do have a change in consumer sentiment broadly, the reality is their appetite for healthy hydration hasn’t waned as evidenced by the household penetration numbers in the quarter that were actually up for our brands and we have a pretty significant penetration advantage versus our other key competitors. If you look at the brands really broadly, I’ll come back to premium in a minute, but obviously premium has been on fire and will continue to be on fire given some of the continued opportunities we have and just the brand strength of both Saratoga and Mountain Valley.

But at the end of the day it’s really important to come back to the broad I think strength of our brand portfolio. We’re seeing good growth across that portfolio. The Regional Springs, Arrowhead, Ice Mountain, Pullen Springs, etc. We saw in the category at retail we grew our volume, we grew our revenue, we grew both our volume and value share. So a whole lot to like.

Relative to premium, continue despite great progress by our sales teams to have distribution opportunities. We’re going to continue to invest in capacity. We referenced that in our prepared comments. The way I would describe it is we are in the very, very, very early innings of a long runway of opportunity for those brands. And I think relative to your pricing question, we’re going to be balanced relative to the growth algorithm.

It’s gonna be volume and price. You can expect

Marissa, Conference Operator: Just one moment. We’ve logged our number

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: eight connects and other other mechanisms.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Head out there a little bit during that answer.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: You have us now?

Marissa, Conference Operator: We have you now. Yes. Thank you. Okay. Thank you for confirming.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Yeah. I’m not I’m not sure where I where I was cut off, so let me let me double back. I think my point was from a consumer standpoint really really encouraging. We continue to create household penetration both the category and our brands. Premium has been on fire.

Saratoga and Mountain Valley have tremendous upside and runway ahead. Good growth on our regional spring water. So at the end of the day at retail we grew our volume, grew our value share. Strong performance will continue on premium, distribution opportunities and investment in capacity early innings with long runway ahead of us. And on pricing I was mentioning that we’ll be balanced in our approach but start with the consumer make sure we understand how she defines value and again take advantage of that opportunity as we walk forward.

David? Yeah Andrea I think all I’d add to that is as we head into ’26 we’ve talked about you know the Mountain Valley supply constraint that’s coming online in the spring and summer, and we really think that that helps unlock. You know, it it within these results, would say Mountain Valley has been held back a little bit, but I really think that unlocks us for ’26.

Marissa, Conference Operator: That’s super helpful. I just wanna maybe double click on the on the, you know, retail side, especially the pure side. Is there any improvement there as you exit the quarter? And then a second clarification with the exit into the Israel We can hear. We

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: the operator, and I did hear Andrea, but she was cutting out if there was a follow-up.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Yes, please. If I can just follow-up on as you exit the quarter two follow ups. One, as you exit the quarter, how was the purified performance? Just to think about like if the consumer got it slightly better as you exit. And then a clarification on the exit of the Israel operations.

Like is that was that included in a headwind into the quarter or no?

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: No. Let me start there, please, just to clarify for everyone. Israel had always been in discontinued operations since the announcement of the original international sale, so that had nothing to do with the quarter itself. I’m not a question,

Marissa, Conference Operator: yeah, yeah, from money back I figured that was the case, but, yeah, I wanted to clarify.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: That’s correct. And then with regard to the purified water, largely the disruptions within the home office delivery space created the challenges there. But at retail, Pure Life brand and the Primo Water brand that goes to market through the exchange and refill services remains quite strong.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, due to timing, our last question will come from Andrew Strelzik with BMO. Please go ahead.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Hey. Great. Thanks for squeezing me in here. When you were talking about the service levels over the last several months, you gave some some good kind of regional color about some of the markets that were lagging and and kind of how that was progressing. And so I was just hoping to get a sense for the breadth maybe of this fulfillment issue that is ongoing.

Is it kind of nationwide? Is it more concentrated in certain areas? Any help around that would be helpful. Sure. Thanks, Andrew.

So, you know, again, we go to market in six divisions. We track our DSR rate that we’ve talked about throughout the last couple of months of our journey. Again, that exits and sits to exited q three right around the 93 ish or so percent range. Today, it stands at 95. Generally, you know, there are a couple divisions performing above that, and then, you know, some of the more slow to recover areas have been in the South East and the Mid Atlantic, but those are within, you know, ’93, ninety four percent.

So again, the overall mean is where we want it. Again, we need to continue to improve the volume off those routes, however. We as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we did go through a a wave of integration in September because we had more time to prepare for the team, for the change management, the amount of leaders that went to the market to ensure that success that was very successful. We had very little friction at the consumer or customer level. So again that really gives us the confidence that as we head into the first quarter with our remaining two waves that the time and the preparation activities that we can put into it is quite helpful for the success of that.

So again, I think we’re just continuing through improving at the volumetric level at this point. Okay. Is is that challenge also kind of regionally concentrated, or is that is that more broad based? I guess that’s what I was It would be in. I guess I was trying to Yep.

It would be in those same regions that we’re continuing to support and improve over time. Okay. All right. Great. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Andrew.

Marissa, Conference Operator: Thank you so much. It’s my pleasure to turn the call back over to Eric Foss for closing remarks.

Loven Grossenbacher, Investor Relations, Primo Brands: Thank you. So in closing, let me just emphasize the confidence we have in this business looking forward. I think the combination of our brand leadership position as well as the increased focus on executional and operational performance can and will deliver a resilient top

Marissa, Conference Operator: line

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