Earnings call transcript: Sleep Cycle Q2 2025 results show revenue decline

Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing a decline in revenue and subscriber numbers. Despite maintaining a strong EBIT margin, the company’s stock fell 6.61% in pre-market trading. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company appears undervalued at current levels, with a P/E ratio of 9.59 and strong financial health metrics. The company continues to focus on innovation, particularly in sleep apnea technology, as it navigates a challenging market environment.

Key Takeaways

• Total paying subscribers decreased by 2.2% year-over-year.
• Total net sales fell by 2.9%, with a 0.6% decline when adjusted for foreign exchange.
• Partnership revenue increased by 68%, now representing 9% of total revenue.
• The stock price dropped 6.61% following the earnings announcement.

Company Performance

Sleep Cycle continues to lead in the sleep technology market, despite facing a decline in total paying subscribers and net sales. The company has maintained an EBIT margin above 25% for six consecutive quarters, highlighting its operational efficiency. However, the softening demand in app stores has posed challenges, prompting a shift towards more personalized healthcare solutions.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: Declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
• EBIT: SEK 11 million, with a 28.4% margin.
• Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): 271 SEK, a 3.9% decline.
• Partnership revenue: Increased by 68%, now 9% of total revenue.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Sleep Cycle’s stock fell by 6.61% in pre-market trading. The stock’s decline reflects investor concerns over the decrease in subscribers and net sales. Trading near its 52-week low, the stock has declined 28.23% over the past six months. However, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.24, with strong return on equity of 78% and minimal debt exposure. The current valuation suggests significant upside potential according to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.

Outlook & Guidance

Sleep Cycle is targeting the launch of its sleep apnea screening technology by the end of next year. The company plans to pursue both B2C in-app screening and B2B telemedicine partnerships. Despite current challenges, Sleep Cycle expects growth in partnership revenue and continues to invest in new technology development.

Executive Commentary

CEO Ergli Mack emphasized the company’s proactive approach: "We’re not just observing this evolution, we’re actively building for it." CFO Elisabeth Hiedmann noted the company’s financial resilience: "Our core business delivers solid profitability, which gives us financial strength to keep investing in long-term growth."

Risks and Challenges

• Declining subscriber numbers and net sales could impact future profitability.
• Softening demand in app stores poses challenges for user acquisition.
• Regulatory hurdles for sleep apnea technology could delay product launches.
• Increased competition in the digital health space may affect market share.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the decline in app store downloads and the company’s regulatory strategy for sleep apnea screening. Management highlighted improving subscriber retention rates and ongoing discussions with Apple regarding sleep technology.

Sleep Cycle remains a prominent player in the sleep technology market, but it faces significant challenges in maintaining growth amid declining subscriber numbers and evolving market dynamics. The company’s commitment to innovation and strategic partnerships will be crucial in navigating these challenges. With revenue growth forecast at 3% for FY2025 and a strong balance sheet showing more cash than debt, the company appears well-positioned to weather current headwinds. For comprehensive analysis including detailed valuations and growth projections, investors can access the full Sleep Cycle research report on InvestingPro.

Full transcript - Sleep Cycle AB (SLEEP) Q2 2025:

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Sleep Cycle’s quarter two twenty twenty five interim report presentation. I’m Ergli Mack. I’m the CEO of Sleep Cycle, and, I’m here together with our CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Elisabeth Hiedmann. We will take you through our results, business highlights and also the forward looking outlook. Together, we will also address any questions you might have in the Q and A at the end.

So to start with, we are Sleep Cycle. We are the world’s leading sleep technology company. We have a mission to improve global health by helping people to take control of their sleep. We are used and loved by millions and available in more than 150 markets, in app stores and as part of many variables. At the core, our app helps people build healthy sleep habits, something that is more needed than ever.

What sets us apart is that we’re not just the world’s largest sleep app, we have a proprietary technology platform. Everything we do, from sleep tracking and smart alarms to audio features like sleep aids and snore detection and even sleep talking recording, helps users understand and improve their sleep. And it’s all built on proprietary audio and sleep science technology, engaging and powered by science. Our strategy is clear: continue growing our consumer business while expanding the value of our platform. On one hand, that means strengthening user acquisition, engagement and retention.

On the other, we’re building new monetization paths, especially around data and technology. This dual focus allow us to scale both our reach and our impact. Today, we’re proud to be the world’s number one sleep app, but what sets us apart goes far beyond that. At the core of everything we do is our proprietary AI sound model. It’s developed in house, it’s trained on over 3,000,000,000 nights of sleep and it’s continuously evolving.

This technology does not only power the app that millions of users rely on and love each night, it also creates one of the world’s richest health data streams. With this, we’re entering into a new phase. It’s it’s not a new strategy. It’s more a new execution model for that strategy. We call it powered by Sleep Cycle.

Through our SDK, we’re opening up access to this technology. Partners across wellness, healthcare, wearables and also beyond that can now integrate our capabilities directly into their own platforms. These integrations will create new high margin revenue opportunities through licensing while also helping us address global health challenges beyond our own app. We’re currently in active discussions with several potential partners and those conversations are shaping how we package and deliver our technology licensing solutions going forward. So to understand where Sleep Cycle fits in, it helps to take a step back and look at how healthcare itself is evolving.

So with HealthCare one point zero, treatments were based on trial and error. Then came HealthCare two point zero, the system most of us know today, which is evidence based but still reactive. You wait until something goes wrong and then the system intervenes. So the real transformation is happening now with health care three point zero, proactive, personalized and real time. This new model leverages AI, behavioral data and continuous signals, not just clinical snapshots, to guide better health decisions before problems escalate.

I would say that Sleep Cycle is built for this future. Our AI technology doesn’t just analyze sleep after the fact, it enables ongoing adaptive insights into health behaviors, noninvasive and ready to scale. Whether it’s early identification of sleep apnea, daily coaching through AI agents, or integrated health data streams for partners, we’re not just observing this evolution, we’re actively building for it. Powered by Sleep Cycle is our contribution to health care three point zero, turning nightly sleep into meaningful health intelligence for individuals as well as for systems. So as part of this, we have sleep apnea, which affects over nine fifty million people worldwide.

Yet eighty percent remain undiagnosed. It’s exposed them to significant higher risks of heart disease, strokes, and even diabetes. Traditional diagnostics are costly and also quite inaccessible. And that’s where Sleep Cycle comes in. We’re using our proprietary audio based AI, already trust by millions, Knightly, to enable noninvasive smartphone based apnea screening.

No wearables, no cables, no clinic visits, AI powered screening using only the iPhone microphone. Affordable and accessible for underserved populations, so medical grade precision, but consumer grade simplicity. It’s a natural extension of our platform, and it’s aligned with our mission to improve global health. And importantly, it reflects the shift toward proactive, personalized health care, enabling earlier detection, broader access and real world impact at scale. So sleep apnea obviously represents a strategic leap for Sleep Cycle.

It significantly expands our total addressable market, and it creates a new high margin revenue stream, both through in app B2C purchases and emerging B2B opportunities. We’re basically stepping into preventive health, aligning with a global shift towards proactive at home care. The home testing market alone is already around $1,000,000,000 growing. So there is a massive unmet medical need and we are making screening more accessible and tech driven. This move positions us not just as a sleep app in the future, but also a health platform for the future.

So to validate our solution ahead of our FDA application, we are right now running a clinical study led by two of our foremost experts. This study is conducted in Australia with 700 participants. In parallel, we’re getting ready for everything that needs to be in order before submitting to FDA. And after that, of course, to CE for, being able to sell this in the European markets. But now let’s look at our Q2 performance, so I hand over to Elizabeth.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Thank you, Eric. Now let’s look at our financial development for the second quarter. The number of paying subscribers decreased by 2.2% year over year, landing at 878,000. This was mainly driven by softer market conditions and a lower intake of new customers. On the positive side, retention rates remain stable and are gradually improving, which confirms the strength of our core subscriber base.

Our partnerships are also growing, but not all of them generate reported subscriptions. The total net sales decreased decreased by 2.9% or 0.6% FX adjusted given the tougher d two c market conditions. Sales from partnerships has, however, increased with 68% year over year and now stands for 9% of our total net sales. We do see currency effects on ARPU, which declined by 3.9% to 271 SEK. ARPU is 11 SEK lower compared to last year, where 6 SEK of the decrease come from FX effects and 5 SEK from price dynamics.

We have converted freemium users into paying subscribers through discounted offers, which temporarily puts pressure on ARPU. But during the summer, we carried out extensive price tests in several of our largest markets. And based on these learnings, we have implemented price increases during August. And we do expect slightly higher underlying ARPU levels going forward. Despite the sales headwinds, EBIT came in at SEK11 million corresponding to a margin of 28.4%.

And this underlines our profitability, and importantly, it provide us with the flexibility to continue investing in partnerships, product innovation, and new new revenue streams to support the long term growth of sleep cycle. Looking at the historical development of paying subscribers and net sales, we do see a period of solid growth followed by the current quarter’s softer performance performance reaching 878,000 paying subscribers by the end of the second quarter. And the decline in net sales is reflecting the same trend, fewer new customers during the first half of the year combined with continued pressure on ARPU. I want, however, to note that the FX adjusted net sales decreased by only 0.6%, and this our partnerships are growing at a fast pace. To repeat, revenue generated from partnerships increased by 68% and now stands for 9% of the total revenue.

So while the historical figures show a period of solid growth, this quarter highlights the challenges in new customer intake combined with FX press pressure. At the same time, our base remains resilient and our partnership developed really well. Turning to profitability. Despite softer revenues this quarter, profitability remains at a solid level at 28.4%, and we have no NRIs affecting comparability. In fact, adjusted EBIT margin has been above 25% for six consecutive quarters, which underlines the profitability in our business model.

Even in a more challenging market environment, our financial performance remains robust, and that gives us flexibility to continue investing in areas will that will fuel the next phase of growth. Looking at the profit and loss statement for the second quarter, distribution costs are a bit lower as a result of, lower sales to new customers, which come in at a higher commission. And we are investing more OpEx in line with our strategy, aiming to add new revenue streams and more partnerships. In addition to this, we invested a further SEK 3,000,000 in CapEx during the quarter, primarily related to the continued development of our AI based sleep apnea screening, which is now in a clinical study phase. Staff costs are on the same level as last quarter as last year’s figure included costs related to the incentive program as well.

We continue to have a strong cash position and a good cash flow and note that we paid out a dividend of SEK61 million during the second quarter. So for the 2025, the pattern is consistent. Net sales were slightly lower compared to last year, while profitability remained solid. EBIT margin for the six month period stayed strong support supported by growing partnerships and efficient operations. At the same time, we invested 6,800,000.0 siek in CapEx during the fur first half of the year, mainly in the in the development of our sleep apnea screening solutions.

The key takeaway here is resilience. Our core business delivers solid profitability, which does give us financial strength to keep investing in long term growth. Now, over to you, Eric.

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: Thanks, Elizabeth. So to me, this quarter marks real traction in new key areas that support both growth and diversification. And we do this while still delivering on our EBIT margin targets. First, we saw more than 60% increase in partnership revenue year over year, now being close to 10% of our total revenue. It’s a clear signal that our strategy is working and it’s a critical timing given the softening demand in App Store and Play Store for the sleep category that I have signaled already in the previous quarter and also during the end of year report.

Secondly, the clinical study for sleep apnea is progressing well. It’s a major step towards launching a medically certified offering and a future revenue stream that leverages our existing platform and expands us further into digital health. When we succeed, we will be breaking new ground. And the journey has already started with pre submission meetings with FDA as well as I already said, the clinical study is underway. And third, the launch of Powered by Sleep Cycle, which has opened up new conversations with potential partners across wellness, health care and connected products.

It’s early, but it’s clear. This model creates commercial upside well beyond the app. More partners are engaging around the SDK integration and exploring how our sleep technology can add value to their platforms and customers. I’m super proud of what the team have achieved in this quarter. And with that, I’m happy to take any questions you might have.

So let’s go into the questions. Yes.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Let’s see. So we have a question from, Jessica Grunewald at Redeye. Last quarter, you highlighted a 10 decline in downloads year over year. What did Q2 look like? And are there any emerging trends in Q3?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: So the softening continued in quarter two, and we also see that trend into quarter three. And to me, that’s why it’s so critical that we succeed with these new revenue path. And I think showing how much we can grow partnership revenue now being close to 10% of our revenue is a strong sign that we can diversify so we are less reliant on the App Stores and the Play Stores. And and and I have to say that historically, you know, sometimes it goes up and down in in the App Stores. So, of course, we’re working hard to turn it around, but the segment as such is declining, and we don’t see it slowing down yet.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Can you update us on subscriber retention and churn for the quarter? We don’t give an exact figure, but what we can say is that we can see that it has gradually improved during both this and actually last quarter as well compared to last year. So we’re seeing positive trends. We’re working, with win back campaigns and, a lot more with CRM to target our customers and, make them come back. Okay.

So we have a question from, Rasmus. Could you provide more detail on the margins you’re seeing in the partnership segments? Specifically, how do you see margins compared to your traditional subscription revenue? Well, actually, we see higher margins in the, in the partnership area as we don’t always have to pay a commission to, Apple, and that is 30% to new customers and 15 to returning. In some cases, we could see a rev share collaboration, but generally, the margins are higher, but the ARPU is a bit lower on these partnerships.

Another question is, can you be more specific about the headwinds you’re facing in subscription growth? That rather than just describing it as a general market challenge, can you clarify whether you identified specific factors like competition or user fatigue, so we know if it’s something you can address?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: I think it’s a it’s a combination of of several things, but we also have to remember that the App Stores and the Play Stores, it’s very much, dictating what kind of, what type of apps they want to surface. And right now, they surface our category less than they have done historically. I think that is the the shortest answer to that question. And the way we address it is, as I said, again, are working with upper funnel activities both in marketing and PR. We have had huge success in PR.

I mean, we’re mentioned in outlets, in consumer outlets and also in networks in The U. S. That most companies of our size or, to be honest, any size would dream about. So we are doing a lot of things up the funnel. But so far this year, we’ve been working, a little bit swimming upstreams in this area.

And that’s again why I think it’s so important that we can double down and show that we can grow, other revenue streams that we are in more control of. And partnership, I think, for this quarter is a clear indicator that we are in control of our business being able to grow that area. And then there was something about the market share, how we measure progress and what are the concrete indicators that it’s increasing. So what we’re looking at is, of course, there are some tools available and and they’re also available And there, we are looking at our main competitors over time and how they are developing, their downloads compared to last year and also how the segment then by itself is developing.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Alright. Then we have a question from Martin. Can you please let us better understand the decrease in depreciation and impairment of tangible and intangible assets? Yes. We can.

So since we are reporting according to I r IRFS, we, need to handle our leases in this post. And last year, we had, an office in Stockholm and one in Gothenburg. We only have one in Gothenburg, so that’s why the that amount is smaller. How does the best case timeline look for the sleep apnea project? How could you go to how could a go to market strategy look like?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: So it’s it’s a very good question, and it’s also, of course, dependent on the the progress of the clinical study. So the pace of the clinical study. I would say we are roughly through 10% of the people in the study as of now, and we are accelerating it week by week. The other thing is, of course, the timeline, of the regulatory bodies that needs to approve the submission basically. So I would say towards the if we’re live towards the end of next year, I would be happy.

And go to market wise, we are envisioning two products, one b to c product. So, basically, you would take a sleep apnea screening test in app. And there we have a huge benefit of having a customer base already. And we know that we have a very engaged customer base in general. So of course, surfacing them, contextually relevant sleep apnea screening tests is something that we have high hopes on.

And, as you know, in digital development, you can conduct certain fake tour tests, etcetera, to to see how the conversion could potentially look. So we’re very confident in the tests that we have done so far. And in parallel, we are also seeing, quite some interest from the B2B segment. So there are quite big players, in the telemedicine space, but also, sleep clinics, etcetera, which is looking for a way to have an easier way for customers basically to find out that they have sleep apnea or or at least should see a clinic to to to get the diagnosis.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: We have another question regarding the sleep apnea project. Do you expect this sleep study to be enough for an application to FDA?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: Yes. We do. And it’s it’s, it’s an extensive study that we’re doing. And, of course, doing a study of this size means that you need to adhere to, all the ethical guidelines, etcetera. And we do that, of course, and we take this very serious.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Another question regarding sleep apnea. How do you plan to monetize your sleep apnea screening feature, as competitors like ShutterEye who are seeing faster growth pace compared to you have already implemented similar screening. Do you want to address that?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: Yeah. I mean, there is no, over the counter approved, sleep apnea screening, in the world. I know that some of our competitors has been experimenting with how they label certain features and also how they market certain features. I also know that they’ve been kicked out of App Store in UK, for instance, a while ago, then they had to remove certain things. So I mean, we’re a listed company.

We’re based on science. So we’re going to do this, and we’re going to do this in the right way. And as I said, we’ve seen quite promising tests in the fake door. So it’s basically user tests that we do in app to see how people convert even though the product is not ready. So I feel very comfortable and confident in in what we’ve seen so far.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: And another question from, Rica at Carnegie. Do you have any timeline for the sleep apnea projects?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: Yes. I said, we should be live, by half half two next year. So that’s the that’s the that’s the ambition we have.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Yes. Then we have a question regarding, how we view Apple’s IP stack concerning sleep tracking. Are we in contact with Apple, and have we explored collaborations with breeding companies?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: I mean, we are always in dialogue with with Apple. As we’ve seen before, when Apple talk about sleep and when they invest in sleep, they actually broaden the the upper funnel. So it’s it’s it’s good for us. So what usually happen is that people or consumers start with what Apple offer, and then they get curious and want something more robust. And then they usually end up with us because we are, as you know, the leading sleep tracker out there.

And so I don’t see any problem with that. And in terms of technology partners, we’re speaking to a variety of partners now in the SDK, so in the tech licensing stream as part of Powered by Sleep Cycle. So we’re definitely on it.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: And then we have a question from Una Jibson at SEB. Do you think that you can maintain this level of revenue from partnership or is there a significant volatility here quarter over quarter?

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: Well, I expect it to grow quarter over quarter.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Yeah. And then we have a question, if we can expand a bit on the 19% increase in other external expenses, how much of that increase was on marketing, and what levels, return are you seeing on that spend? I can expand on that. As you know, we are exploring many new, potential new revenue streams, and we are, that is with a cost as well as we are a small team that cannot do everything ourselves. As of marketing, the marketing spend is on the same level, but we are working more with CRM system and experts to convert our our customers and keep them longer.

And then a question, from Martin, again about the capitalization of development expenses in the cash flow statement, why it’s not the same as in the p and l. So, the capitalized work for own account, that just means, that’s capitalized costs for our own stuff, whilst we are doing other investments that are pure purely, external costs that we would not have had in our p and l if we, if we hadn’t done these investments or these projects. So that’s the way we usually report these types of items.

Ergli Mack, CEO, Sleep Cycle: Good. So thank you, everyone. I think it was very good questions. As I said on the end of the call, it’s a very exciting autumn. We are growing in the areas that we can fully control.

And that, of course, gives me and the team some energy. We have exciting things around the corner that we have started to share even more about today. So thank you so much for for tuning in, and and thank you so much for being with us.

Elisabeth Hiedmann, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, Sleep Cycle: Thank you so much.

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