Talvotech at Jefferies Conference: Strategic Growth in Biosimilars

Talvotech (NASDAQ:ALVO) presented its ambitious growth strategy at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference on Thursday, 05 June 2025. The company, focused on biosimilars, emphasized its robust investment in development and manufacturing, aiming to expand access to affordable, high-quality biologic drugs worldwide. While Talvotech anticipates significant revenue growth, it also faces challenges such as maintaining market competitiveness and managing costs.

Key Takeaways

• Talvotech projects 2025 revenues between $600 million and $700 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to nearly double.
• The company aims for $1.5 billion in revenue by 2028, driven by new product launches and existing biosimilars.
• Acquired XPRAIN in Sweden to enhance R&D capabilities, increasing program capacity to five to six annually.
• Anticipates limited impact from US tariffs due to favorable conditions for Iceland and strong partnerships.
• Focused on deepening existing partnerships with companies like Teva and Dr. Reddy’s.

Financial Results

• 2024 Revenue: $275 million
• 2024 EBITDA: $108 million
• Projected 2025 Product Revenue: $340 million to $410 million
• Projected 2025 Overall Revenue: $600 million to $700 million
• Projected 2025 Adjusted EBITDA: $200 million to $280 million
• 2028 Revenue Target: $1.5 billion
• Projected 2028 EBITDA Margin: 40% to 45%
• Projected Cumulative Milestone Revenue (next four years): $1 billion
• Projected CapEx for 2025: $60 million to $70 million
• Projected CapEx (next three years): $20 million to $25 million annually

Operational Updates

• Launched biosimilars Humira and Stelara in key markets, including the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan.
• Plans to launch biosimilar Prolia, Steva, Symphony, and Eylea by the end of the year.
• Acquired XPRAIN in Sweden, expanding R&D capacity significantly.
• 28 projects in development, with 14 in late-stage and 14-15 in early-stage development.

Future Outlook

• Targeting $1.5 billion in revenue by 2028, with a 40-45% EBITDA margin.
• Revenue growth driven by existing products and new launches, including Symphony, Eylea, and Prolia.
• Expects US market share for biosimilar Humira and Stelara to peak and plateau in 2026.
• Committed to enhancing partnerships for sustained growth.

Q&A Highlights

• High Dose EYLEA launch is targeted for 2027, with patent details undisclosed.
• Interchangeability of HUMIRA biosimilar’s importance is diminishing as industry priorities shift.
• Plans to deepen partnerships with existing collaborators, offering them first access to new products.

Readers are encouraged to refer to the full transcript for a detailed account of the conference call.

Full transcript - Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2025:

Matthew Pakora, Jefferies Healthcare Investment Banking team, Jefferies: All righty. Good morning, and welcome to Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference. My name is Matthew Pakora with the Jefferies Healthcare Investment Banking team, and it’s my great pleasure to introduce you to Doctor. Balaji Prasad, the Chief Strategy Officer. He will get us started here today.

Balaji Prasad, Chief Strategy Officer, Talvotech: Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone. My name is Balaji Prasad, the Chief Strategy Officer at Talvotech. It’s my pleasure to present the story that we have here with Talvotech, one we see as a fast paced growth engine over the next five to ten years. And I would also thank Jeffries for giving me the opportunity to make this presentation.

Thank you, Jeffries, team Jeffries. I will take you in brief. So for those of you who are not familiar with the story, we are a leading pure play biosimilars company with the vision, of course, to enable access to low cost biologic drugs, but at a very high quality, not just in The US, but across the globe. And with this vision, the company was incorporated around ten years ago. And in the last ten years, we have come a long way with multiple milestones and achievements to date.

What is also unique about us is is our entire platform, which where both development and manufacturing is integrated. We have a multiproduct portfolio strategy, and rather uniquely also a global strategy. So it’s not just The US market. The US market is extremely important, of course, but we look at serving the global market. So towards this end, what did we do differently?

We adopted a partnership approach, which means for every company, every country globally, we tie up with very strong local partners. We’ll discuss that a bit more in detail. But to come to where we are today, we have invested a substantial amount of capital over the last ten years, and that’s translated into one of the largest biosimilar programs, if not the largest biosimilar programs globally. It’s translated into one of the addressing nearly $200,000,000,000 of total addressable market for biologics. And with close to 20 commercial partnerships.

What’s also unique and what made me join the company recently is the quality of the management team that we have here. And I just want to maybe leave a few words about our founder, Robert Westman. He’s somebody who’s very well known in the field of generics and biosimilars over the last twenty five years, set up six companies with more than a billion dollar in market cap valuations each over the last two decades two and a half decades. And I had the vision to build a pure player biosimilars company ten years ago and built a strong team of management team to work with him. And I’m really proud to be a part of that.

I’ll skip this slide where we just look at the biologics and biosimilars difference, but this I think is a key. Most of the data comes from a report like we have put out in February 2025, clearly saying the dire need for greater biosimilars in The US and globally. Some key highlights. I mean, out of the 62 biologics which are present currently, there are around 14 without any kind of patent protection. And only 14 are biosimilars, and the rest don’t have any biosimilars as of date.

But over the next ten years, nearly 120 biologics are expected to lose patent production, which means that there is a huge opportunity for any company with a singular focus on biosimilars, on developing biosimilars to these biologics, and help meet a dire health care need, is lower cost drugs at very high quality. Of these 118 biologics, just around 10% currently are biosimilars in development. So there is a significant vacuum in terms of biosimilar developments, which we think is going

Unidentified speaker: to be the growth engine for us over the next ten, fifteen years.

Balaji Prasad, Chief Strategy Officer, Talvotech: And why is this important? So we are not just a one to three year story where we latch onto an opportunity in biosimilars and grow from now 2025 to 2028. But this is a growth opportunity which can last for us for a long time, more than a decade or nearly multiple decades. And what drives us confidence? Because as we look at the global health care system currently, global pharmaceutical system currently, biologic sales, they’re growing much faster than non biologics.

And clearly, over the last fifteen years, biologics have dominated the global health care market, providing incredible quality of care to patients. And that’s expected to continue, so there’s going to be no let up. What this translates into for Alvo Tech is that we are going to see multiple opportunities crop up over the next ten, fifteen years where we’ll be able to develop new programs, new projects, and continue to be a growth story. And within this, if you look at the biosimilar side, the biosimilar units are growing at around 20% over the last three years. Primarily what we have seen till now is on the immunology side and oncology side and both Part D and Part B, we have seen some meaningful pant expiries and biosimilar entries.

And I would showcase a point that the Association for Accessible Medicines had put out recently saying that in just the last ten years generics and biosimilars overall have saved nearly a trillion dollars to The US health care system. So we expect this rapid growth in biosimilars to continue and even expand further. And again, just a reiteration that this is not just a U. S. Growth story.

We are a global growth story. We have a strong presence in the EU market with multiple local partners. We have a strong presence in The US, and we also present in multiple geographies ex US, ex Europe, in Japan, and other Latin American countries. As I briefly alluded to this, what is our strategic advantage? So we have a purpose built in house R and D, which means that we are focused on biosphere development and biosimilar development alone.

And our unit is also very closely integrated with the manufacturing facilities. We’re literally in the same facility in Reykjavik. And this gives us tremendous advantage in terms of communication, integration, being able to translate idea to projects to commercial stage. And we have seen that come through multiple times. And again, this is a facility where we have invested substantial amount of capital over the last ten years.

And the unique part about this is that we have said it publicly and often that we are well situated with respect to capacity, not just up to 2,030, but even beyond. So we are we have the capacity to to manufacture and supply all our programs over the next five years and even beyond that. Yep. And as I said, we believe that ours is one of the most valuable, if not the most valuable, biosphere development program in comparison with our peers. I have one more chart to discuss this addressing nearly $185,000,000,000 of market over the next ten years.

Lastly, about our partnership model, as I said, 19 global partners. The ability of this partnership for us to basically provide continuous steady cash flow and being able to reach a stage where we self fund our R and D projects is very unique. So currently, with most of the projects, we are able to self fund the developmental programs. And also, this partnership approach helps us be able to helps us be present in multiple countries at the same time and create milestones, regular milestone incomes. Recently, we acquired XPRAIN in Sweden and want to dig dig into this a bit more.

So Sweden basically gave us XPRAIN gave us a tremendous advantage because it helps to expand our r and d capacity where we are going from two to three programs a year to five to six programs a year now with this acquisition. Gave us a very strong presence in a place which which has a very strong biotech background, And we got around 45 scientists with this acquisition. And clearly, able to have all of these with a purchase price of just north of $20,000,000 was a significant advantage. The last part which tells us why this acquisition is a great one for us is really the equation of Cimzia as a new program for us with this. So Cimzia, many of you would know, it’s a TNF alpha inhibitor, and what is different about Cimzia is it’s also pegylated version, which means that it can cross the placental barrier and is the only anti TNF alpha indicated for women of childbearing age or pregnant women and deemed to be safe.

So translates into a $2,000,000,000 current market opportunity. What we have seen as soon as we announce this acquisition is that we have had multiple inbound queries on partnerships. Eager to partner with us on this program, and we believe that we will be able to justify the ROE invested into the entire Xperian acquisition with Cimzia milestones loan in near future. A bit more detail around our R and D pipelines. As you said, one of the most comprehensive pipelines globally.

We have seen we have launched two of these into The U. S. Market and globally right now, which is Biosimilarly Humira or ABTO2 or called Selarstein Simlandi in The U. S. And AVTO4, which is our internal terms, terminology, istukunumab, which is biosimilar Stelara, which we launched around a couple of months ago, called Simlandi.

So of course, this was into The US, but they’re also present across Canada, Europe, Japan right now and are going to be the bulwark of our revenue for the next couple of years. Getting beyond this, we are very excited to announce that we are anticipating three new approvals and launches by the end of the year, biosimilar Prolia and Steva, biosimilar Symphony, Symphony ARIA in The US, and Bismara Eylea. These three drugs together have a total addressable market of around $5,000,000,000 and we expect to be strong competitors in each of these products and expect to launch soon after approval. Really keeps the excitement going for us in terms of anticipated launches and associated milestones coming through with it. Beyond these three drugs, three other drugs that I want to call out which are going to be material for our target 2028 ambitions that we announced a while ago is Bisomolar Entyvio, Bisomolar High Dose Eylea, and Bisomolar Zolair.

So we expect to launch this beyond 2026 and will be a key constraint of our 2028 revenue milestones or revenue targets. So this is just to substantiate what I said earlier, that we feel extremely confident about our strength in the biosimilar program with our singular focus on biosimilars. We currently have 28 projects in development. We saw 14 of that in the previous slide. There’s another 14 to 15 in early stage developments.

And we compared our projects with those of our peers across the globe. And we believe that our focus and our pipeline and our partnership approach differentiates us each of these three points differentiates us substantially from any of our peers here. And this is some data around our partners globally. As I’ve said, we look at regional champions in local markets. We, as a strategy, decided not to tie up with one or two companies and try to have a global partnership, but instead focus on regional champions in each market, which company has a strong local presence, which company has a local dominance and is also interested in growing in that market.

So that really explains most of our strategy with partnering with Doctor. Eddy’s, be it with Doctor. Eddy’s in India or Doctor. Eddy’s in The US or Teva in The US. Teva is one of our strongest partnership to date and our JAMP in Canada, so Staten, Advance in Europe.

These are all like solid partners that we are we are delighted to partner with. Over the last couple of months, we have been getting multiple inbounds around US tariffs, So we did clarify that this is something that we expect to have limited impact because of two factors. One, Iceland as a whole enjoys a beneficial tariff rate of 10%. I don’t expect a change. And secondly, within this, the way our contracts are set up is that our customers, our partners, basically, they pay the tariffs on their end.

So we do not expect to see any material impact from this. And so no change to our guidance at all if the tariffs do come into play. So all of these gets us to where are we currently. As I said, ten years ago, we set up the foundation for growth. We reached inflection last year and that was when we launched into The US market with biosimilar Humira and then we’ve had multiple launches since then.

And then the last last year, we also achieved positive EBITDA and sustained this now for the last four quarters. Coming going on from year 2025 to 2028, we anticipate rapid value enhancement with our portfolio. What will be driving this? Of course, the launches that we alluded to. We’re also at the verge of significant operating leverage, so we are seeing this inflection in operating profits come through, and this this is going to continue over the next few years.

So this execution continue will build the value for us over the next four, five years. To translate that a bit into the numbers, last year, ended with around $275,000,000 of revenues and around $110,000,000 hundred and $8,000,000 of EBITDA. This year, we will take the $274,000,000 of revenue to anywhere between 600 in terms of product revenue to $340,000,000 to $410,000,000 and overall revenues from $492,000,000 to 600,000,000 to $700,000,000 of revenues. In terms of EBITDA, what I spoke about in terms of operating leverage and inflection continuing, we’ll see that this year when operating adjusted EBITDA goes from nearly $108,000,000 to anywhere between 200,000,000 to $280,000,000 So on the lower end of range, we expect to almost double our EBITDA this year. Looking forward over the next three years, we have set up our target 2028 so that investors, our stakeholders can understand what real, what is it that we really are targeting and shooting for, which is to grow these revenues from 607 hundred million dollars this year to more than double to $1,500,000,000 by 2028.

Converting this into EBITDA, what do what could EBITDA be? So we expect EBITDA margin of 40 to 45%. So we can do the math in terms of what the EBITDA is. Within this $1,500,000,000, we have clear line of sight into what is it that’s going to come from the product revenues, which is going to be around eight products that we’ll just discuss, and the rest is going to be from milestone revenues. We have been accumulating last year, we had milestone revenue of around $218,000,000, and this year, we expect to generate milestone revenues of $260,000,000 to $290,000,000 Over the next four years, we expect to achieve a cumulative milestone revenue of $1,000,000,000 Yeah?

So clearly, we think that this is highly derisked, and we are able to achieve this revenue target. Drilling this down into operating margins, 40% to 45% operating margins. And clearly, can see that with our COGS is going to be constant. We expect to spend really a similar amount of margin in terms of COGS or G and A, and so we’ll expect to see operating margins jump substantially. The last part, of course, is the capacity, which I had spoken about, which means that our CapEx requirements over the next four years is very minimal.

What’s the 60,000,000 to $70,000,000 this year? We expect to spend CapEx of around $20,000,000 to $25,000,000 over the next three years. And so we what we’ll see is a dramatic increase in returns over the next three, four years with very limited incremental capital investment needed. So breaking this $1,500,000,000 down, we have three buckets for this. So currently, 600 to $700,000,000.

Biosimilar, Umera, and Stellar, we get a lot of questions around it as to what is the peak, what is the decline phase of this. We think that while it could peak in 2026, there’ll still be meaningful contributors to the numbers in 2028. While they won’t grow, we expect some compression on the back of regular industry dynamics around pricing and offset by greater volumes. It will still be a meaningful chunk of our twenty twenty twenty eight revenue. And towards the end of this year, we’re expecting approvals for Symphony, Eylea, and Prolia.

We expect this to contribute we expect this to be the next growth engine for us, and we have it some more details on the next slide. So nearly 35% to 45% of revenues of this $1,300,000,000 will come from these three launches over the next three years. And lastly, future launches, which is what you can think of as twenty twenty seven or twenty twenty eight launches, Eylea, Idols, and Entyvio. We are extremely excited with the opportunities, especially with Eylea, iDose, Entyvio, and even Eylea because we think that these are ones which where we have a significant competitive advantage, where there is limited competition, and we expect to be able to be present in the market on time with limited to no competition for quite some time. So that gives us our confidence in putting these numbers across.

Within these, I think, again, questions tend to be focused more around Humira and Stellara on what is the ramp curve. And what we have said for this year and next year is for starting with Bison and Emera, we expect The US market share to be in the low double digit range. We expect that this would peak and plateau sometime in 2026 and thereafter have a tempered contribution to growth or and just be stable. We will see some growth continuing in EU and rest of the world, basically entering new markets, volume growth and a similar dynamic happens with Stellara too with US market share somewhere in the low double digit range. Expect this to peak and plateau in 2026 and continuing introduction into new markets beyond 2026 in ROW.

So coming back to the slide that I started with, this is our story, Very strong pure play biosimilar platform, vertically integrated, and we think we have all the engines required to drive growth over the foreseeable future. I’ll stop here at this point, and I look forward to meeting many of you in our one on one meetings. And for those of you who have any questions, please do feel free to get back to my team and I. Today with me, I have Benedict Stefansson, is the vice president of investor relations. And we have Mikaela, who will be working with me also on strategy investor relations with me with us.

Feel free to reach out to us. We have five minutes if there are any questions. I can take them. Please.

Unidentified speaker: Thank you for this nice talk. I was wondering about your target. Thank you. So I was wondering about your target for 2028 for high dose EYLEA. Do you not expect patent issues here with this time frame?

Balaji Prasad, Chief Strategy Officer, Talvotech: We do have some discussions around it, but we are confident of getting launching it somewhere in the 2027 time frame. Confident of launching this and also confident of this being a limited competition product for us. Yeah. But but as as typical with any kind of patent discussions, I would not disclose more around this time.

Unidentified speaker: Thank you.

Unidentified speaker: Thank you for the presentation again. So can you actually explain a little bit about the interchangeability of your HUMIRA biosimilar? I think FDA is trying to get rid of the interchangeability designation. You are one of few players actually has interchangeability at the moment.

Balaji Prasad, Chief Strategy Officer, Talvotech: Yeah, sure. Thanks for the question. So interchangeability for Biosimilar Mira was a substantial differentiator when we introduced the product into the market last year. And it gives us a significant advantage that we were one of the last to enter the market, as you know, but we still ended up with solid market share in the double digits because of this differentiation, interchangeable high concentration. We are the only interchangeable high concentration asset for nearly one year, right?

But the exclusive which lasted us till May. So going forward, it’s unlikely there’ll be a major differentiator. And also, as I said, the FDA is trying to do away with it. And I think it’s understandable because somewhere interchangeability as a industry unit or industry designation moved from being a regulatory standard to being perceived as a clinical standard. And the FDA doesn’t want this connotation to stand.

So we would think that gradually the relevance of interchangeability will go away, I think customers will focus more on companies that have a comprehensive pipeline, that have a that have adequate manufacturing capacity. They know that there’s not going to be any supply issues, And the differentiator is going to be moving towards more of these characteristics on where we stand very well positioned, and that will be our future differentiators. Thank you. Yeah.

Unidentified speaker: Thank you for the presentation. Can you expand on your strategy on expanding with the existing partnerships on an ongoing basis?

Balaji Prasad, Chief Strategy Officer, Talvotech: Sure. We are extremely happy with the partners we have chosen across the globe. And where feasible, I think our goal would be to deepen our partnerships with for each individual markets. And I think that focus is not going to change anytime in the near future. Like, we know if we have chosen a particular company, let’s say, Teva in The US, our doctor Eddy’s for some products where we could not we could not partner with Teva, We believed in their competence in delivering us the growth in The US market, and these have been invaluable partners for us.

So that’s going to be the modus operandi that we would look to leverage the existing partnerships for each individual geography or market. And as and when we bring new new products, I think it’s reasonable to expect that our existing partners would get first look in it unless they can for multiple reasons. They may have their own assets or they may have a different stand, but, it’s reasonable to expect that we will continue to value our current partners.

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