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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Benin’s ’BB-/B’ long- and short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings, maintaining a positive outlook.
The positive outlook reflects expectations that Benin’s budgetary position and debt profile will continue to improve despite challenges including low GDP per capita, high external imbalances, and regional tensions.
Benin’s economy is projected to grow at 6.1% annually from 2025-2028, supported by improving agricultural yields and the anticipated launch of oil and gold production by late 2025. The country’s real GDP growth surged to 7.5% in 2024, outperforming S&P’s 6.4% forecast.
The country is entering an electoral cycle with parliamentary elections scheduled for January 2026, followed by presidential elections in April. President Patrice Talon has indicated he will not seek reelection, with Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni running as the ruling coalition’s candidate.
Benin’s fiscal consolidation is progressing well, with the budget deficit expected to be just below 2.9% of GDP in 2025, compared to 4.1% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2022. This aligns with West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) convergence criteria.
The country’s debt financing relies heavily on external sources, with external funding representing about 76% of total public debt as of June 2025. Multilateral and bilateral lenders account for more than half of this external funding.
Despite economic progress, challenges remain. Benin’s GDP per capita ($1,640 in 2025) is among the lowest in the ’BB-’ peer group. The country also faces risks from terrorist threats in the north, potential effects of Nigeria’s weak growth, and climate vulnerabilities.
Benin’s export base is gradually expanding, though it remains heavily dependent on Nigeria and Bangladesh. The country is actively working to diversify its exports, with processed cashews and soybeans showing significant growth in recent years.
S&P could raise Benin’s ratings if reforms boost economic growth beyond forecasts and if net government debt as a share of GDP decreases significantly below projections.
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