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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Chad’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ’B-’ with a Stable Outlook, the agency announced Monday.
The rating reflects Chad’s very low GDP per capita, which stands at only 40% of the current ’B’ median, weak governance, high informality, and significant oil dependence. These weaknesses are balanced by Chad’s comparatively low debt-to-GDP level, highly concessional external debt, and strong donor support.
Chad faced refinancing challenges in the regional market during the second half of 2024, with subscription rates falling significantly. The country mitigated these issues through concessional external funding (2.5% of GDP) and a private placement of local-currency securities with a regional financial institution (0.4% of GDP). Subscription rates have since recovered in the first half of 2025.
The central government budget deficit narrowed to 0.1% of GDP in 2024 from 0.9% in 2023, driven by stronger non-oil revenue and lower capital expenditure. Non-oil revenue excluding grants increased to 7.2% of GDP in 2024 from 5.7% in 2023, reflecting higher administrative revenues from the renewal of licenses for two cell phone operators.
Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen to 1.1% of GDP in 2025 and average 2.1% in 2026-2027. Revenue is expected to fall to an average of 12.7% of GDP over the forecast period, down from 14.2% in 2024, primarily due to lower oil receipts amid declining international oil prices.
Government debt is projected to increase slightly over the forecast horizon, reaching 31.0% of GDP by 2027, up from 29.2% in 2024. This remains well below the ’B’ median of 53.1% expected for 2027. At the end of 2024, external debt represented 50% of the total debt stock, with most owed to official creditors on concessional terms.
In July 2025, the IMF approved a 48-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement of approximately $625 million to support Chad’s fiscal sustainability and balance of payments needs.
Fitch noted that the ongoing conflict in Sudan increases uncertainty along the border with Chad. While security spillovers have been contained so far, a significant escalation could extend to Chad due to cross-border ethnic affinities.
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