Fitch affirms Cote d’Ivoire at BB- with stable outlook

Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Cote d’Ivoire’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ’BB-’ with a Stable Outlook, according to a statement released Friday.

The rating agency cited Cote d’Ivoire’s strong growth, sound fiscal management and solid macroeconomic policies as key strengths supporting the rating. These positives are reinforced by a long record of low inflation and strong engagement with the International Monetary Fund.

The country’s central government deficit narrowed to 4.0% of GDP in 2024 from 5.2% in 2023, primarily due to decreased expenditure. Government revenue, including grants, saw only a slight increase to 16.5% of GDP from 16.3% in 2023, as fiscal revenue mobilization fell short of targets by 0.5 percentage points of GDP.

Fitch projects the fiscal deficit will further narrow to approximately 3.0% of GDP in 2025-2026, mainly driven by improved fiscal revenue performance. This improvement is expected to come largely from cyclical factors, particularly increased tax receipts from higher cocoa prices, which materialize with a delay due to the pricing mechanism.

Government debt rose to 60% of GDP in 2024, up from 58% in 2023 and above the ’BB’ median of 54%. Fitch forecasts this will decline to 55.2% by 2026, reflecting strong nominal GDP growth and the narrowing fiscal deficit.

The rating agency identified several weaknesses, including low income per capita compared to ’BB’ category peers, low government revenues, and high government debt relative to the country’s development level. The government debt to revenue ratio is expected to remain at 313% in 2026, significantly above the ’BB’ median of 225%.

Real GDP growth remained robust at 6.1% in 2024, exceeding the ’BB’ median of 3.7%. Fitch expects economic growth to continue as a rating strength at 6.0% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026.

The upcoming presidential election in October 2025 will test Cote d’Ivoire’s political stability, given its history of election-related violence. Questions about presidential candidates’ eligibility highlight potential risks of unrest, though Fitch’s baseline assumes the electoral outcome will not significantly disrupt growth or fiscal consolidation.

The West African Economic and Monetary Union’s central bank (BCEAO) has seen its international reserves increase significantly to $29.6 billion in May 2025, up from $16.0 billion in October 2024 and $15.9 billion at the end of 2023.

Fitch noted that former Economic Community of West African States members Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have confirmed they are not seeking to leave the WAEMU, which reduces regional risks for Cote d’Ivoire.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.