* Group's newspaper instructs on guerrilla tactics
* After fall of "caliphate", IS aims to expand
* Islamic State still seen as dangerous
By Lena Masri and Ali Abdelaty
CAIRO, May 24 (Reuters) - After losing territory, Islamic
State fighters are turning to guerrilla war - and the group's
newspaper is telling them exactly how to do it.
In recent weeks, IS's al-Naba online newspaper has
encouraged followers to adopt guerrilla tactics and published
detailed instructions on how to carry out hit-and-run
operations.
The group is using such tactics in places where it aims to
expand beyond Iraq and Syria. While IS has tried this approach
before, the guidelines make clear the group is adopting it as
standard operating procedure.
At the height of its power IS ruled over millions in large
parts of Syria and Iraq.
But in March it lost its last significant piece of
territory, the Syrian village of Baghouz, and the group has been
forced to return to its roots: a style of fighting that avoids
direct confrontation, weakening the enemy by attrition and
winning popular support.
This attempt to revive Islamic State has so far been
successful, analysts say, with many global attacks in recent
weeks, including in places never before targeted by the group.
"The sad reality is that ISIS is still very dangerous," said
Rita Katz, executive director of the SITE Intelligence Group,
which tracks extremists. "It has the tools and foundations
needed to build insurgencies across the world."
In a rare video published by IS's Al Furqan network in
April, the group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi encouraged
followers to fight on and weaken the enemy by attrition,
stressing that waging war is more important than winning.
It was more downbeat than his only other video appearance
from the pulpit of the Grand al-Nuri Mosque in Mosul in 2014,
when he was dressed all in black and sporting a fancy watch.
In the new video, he sat cross-legged on a mattress as he
spoke to three aides. A Kalashnikov rifle rested against the
wall behind him -- the same type of weapon that appeared in
videos of Al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden and Baghdadi's
predecessor Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who both adopted the guerrilla
warfare tactic.
“He appeared as a commander of hardened mujahideen, of an
insurgency group, not the pampered leader of a well-off
caliphate,” said Katz. “His appearance totally mobilized Islamic
State's supporters all over the world.”
ORGANISED TACTIC
Hassan Abu Hanieh, a Jordanian expert on Islamists, said IS
has used guerrilla tactics to temporarily seize towns in order
to attract media coverage but also as part of a new strategic
approach.
"This kind of war has turned into a strategy for the group,"
he said. "At this stage they are using it as a war of attrition,
like Baghdadi said in his latest speech."
In April, IS claimed it had attacked the town of Fuqaha in
Libya, killing the head of the town council and setting fire to
the municipal guard headquarters. "They seized control of the
town for several hours and then returned to their bases safely,"
the claim said of the IS fighters.
In recent weeks, al-Naba newspaper, one of IS's most
important media outlets, has published a four-part series titled
"The Temporary Fall of Cities as a Working Method for the
Mujahideen".
In the articles, IS urged fighters to avoid face-to-face
clashes with the enemy -- something the group had previously
encouraged.
The series explained how guerrilla fighters can weaken the
enemy without taking losses. It urged the jihadists to seize
weapons from victims and grab or burn their valuables.
Among the goals of hit-and-run attacks, the series said, was
to take hostages, release prisoners and seize cash from the
enemy.
Other goals were to "secure the needs of fighters" by
collecting money, food, medicine and weapons "particularly when
it is difficult to secure these needs because (the fighters) are
in a weak position," one of the articles said.
AL QAEDA TACTICS
These guerrilla warfare manuals are the most detailed IS has
published yet, Katz said.
The language is similar to the one used in manuals published
years ago by Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia via its “al-Battar”
electronic magazine, which provided military instructions to
supporters and cells around the world, she said.
IS's new manuals show that the group is short on fighters
and finances, she added.
When it lost its territory, IS also lost an important source
of income, mainly taxes and oil revenue.
”Financially, territorially and militarily speaking, the
group is very weak," said Katz. "That said, ISIS leadership
seeks to revive its so-called caliphate, with special attention
on areas outside of Iraq and Syria.”
Although not all of the group's claims can be confirmed, it
has announced some wide-ranging operations.
On April 18, IS claimed its first attack in Democratic
Republic of Congo and announced the creation of a "Central
Africa Province" of the "Caliphate". Since then the group has
claimed several more attacks in Congo.
On May 10, IS claimed it had established a province in
India. It also said IS fighters had inflicted casualties on
Indian soldiers in Kashmir.
The same day, militants on motorbikes stormed a town in
northeastern Nigeria and opened fire on residents and soldiers
in an attack later claimed by Islamic State.
IS has claimed more operations in Nigeria and dozens of
similar attacks in recent weeks in Afghanistan, Niger, Somalia,
Egypt, Pakistan, Chechnya, Sri Lanka and elsewhere. In several
cases, the group published pictures of bullets, rifles and other
weapons it said it had collected from soldiers.
By striking in a wide range of places, IS is promoting
itself and proving it can reorganize and modify its strategy,
said Laith Alkhouri, co-founder and senior director at
Flashpoint, which monitors militants' activity online.
"ISIS super-temporarily seizes areas, flexes its muscles,
subdues locals, even recruits from amongst them, and taunts
governments by exposing security flaws or weaknesses," he said.
"This is a considerably important avenue for ISIS's growth."
Guerrilla war is a less costly way to inflict damage and the
group is using the tactic where it wants to expand, such as
eastern Afghanistan, northeastern Nigeria, Somalia, North
Africa, the Indian subcontinent and central Africa, he said.
"The group's media realizes the importance of highlighting
this, not only for boosting the morale of the support base,"
Alkhouri said. "But just as importantly for expanding its
footprint geographically — effectively setting up and expanding
unrest zones around the world."