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Investing.com -- Moody’s Ratings has confirmed the Aaa ratings for the Netherlands’ local and foreign-currency long-term issuer ratings, including the senior unsecured ratings. The local-currency short-term issuer rating has also been affirmed at Prime-1. The outlook remains stable.
The Aaa rating and stable outlook reflect the Netherlands’ strong economic and financial strength, the capacity of its institutions to manage shocks, and a proven track record of addressing long-term challenges. The economy’s strength is derived from its competitive, diversified nature and the country’s wealth, while its fiscal strength is supported by a moderate government debt burden and strong debt affordability. Despite facing credit challenges such as high levels of private-sector debt, external risks, and long-term demographic challenges, the Netherlands’ strong institutions and track record suggest these risks will be effectively managed.
The country’s local and foreign-currency country ceilings remain at Aaa. This is typical for euro-area countries, reflecting benefits from the euro areas’ robust common institutional, legal, and regulatory framework, as well as liquidity support and other crisis management mechanisms.
The Dutch economy’s strength is underpinned by its size, high per-capita wealth levels, and high degrees of diversification, competitiveness, and flexibility. The Netherlands also ranks strongly in international surveys on innovation capacity and digital competitiveness. Real GDP growth is forecast at around 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, with private consumption expected to increase due to solid wage growth, falling inflation, and tax cuts.
However, population ageing is expected to impact Dutch trend growth from the late 2020s onwards. Labour supply, a key driver of growth in recent years, will remain essentially flat due to an ageing workforce, high labour force participation, and more restrictive migration policies. Trend growth for the Netherlands is projected to moderate to around 1% by 2033 from 2.1% in 2023.
The Netherlands’ Aaa ratings are supported by the government’s strong balance sheet, providing significant shock absorption capacity. Debt levels are expected to remain below the Maastricht threshold of 60% of GDP through the end of this decade. The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to around 2.1% of GDP in 2025, mainly driven by higher government expenditures on social security, healthcare, and defence.
A reform of the military pension system in 2026 will cost the government a one-off amount of €8.5 billion (0.7% of GDP) and likely result in a deficit of 3.2% of GDP. The general government debt is projected to increase to about 51% of GDP by 2030, from an estimated 43.9% at the end of 2024.
The stable outlook reflects the belief that potential downside risks to the credit profile are effectively mitigated by the institutional capacity to manage shocks and a proven track record of addressing long-term challenges such as demographic change. The Netherlands’ Aaa rating would only come under downward pressure if there was a significant and prolonged deterioration in its economic strength or a sharp increase in the government debt burden.
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