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GLOBAL MARKETS-Sino-U.S. spat over Hong Kong knocks world shares off 22-month high

Published 20/11/2019, 14:01
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Sino-U.S. spat over Hong Kong knocks world shares off 22-month high
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* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

* World stocks down 0.3%, along with S&P futures

* European shares almost 1 percent lower

* Brent licks wounds after suffering sharpest drop in 7 wks

* U.S. Treasury yields fall further, flatten curve

* Next major event is minutes of Fed's last meeting

(Updates throughout, adds charts)

By Sujata Rao

LONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - World stocks were knocked off

22-month highs on Wednesday as a flare-up in Sino-U.S. tensions

and the creeping return of U.S. recession fears fuelled a bid

for bonds and other "safe" assets such as gold.

Wall Street futures were marked lower and European equities

tumbled 0.8%, edging further off recent four-year highs hit when

it had appeared Washington and Beijing were about to agree the

first phase of a trade deal.

The mood in markets soured after the U.S. Senate angered

China by passing a bill requiring annual certification of Hong

Kong's autonomy and warning Beijing against suppressing

protesters. China demanded the United States stop interfering in

its internal affairs and said it would retaliate.

U.S. President Donald Trump also threatened to up tariffs on

Chinese goods if a trade deal is not reached soon. "Markets have taken a bit of a wobble due to the talk about

Hong Kong, but they had rallied a lot in recent weeks on

expectations of a (trade) deal," said Salman Ahmed, chief

investment strategist at Lombard Odier.

Ahmed said both sides needed a deal to be signed -- Trump

cannot afford a recession because of his re-election bid next

year, while China's economy is slowing markedly.

"I think we are looking at a short-term setback rather than

a major issue that would derail the process. The bill still has

to be signed into law by Trump so there's a high probability he

will use it as leverage against China."

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS

tumbled 0.7%, Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 0.8% and Shanghai blue

chips .CSI300 lost 1%. MSCI's global index .MIWD00000PUS

slipped 0.3%, ending a three-day winning streak.

Wall Street futures were down 0.3%-0.4% ESc1 YMc1 NQc1

Analysts noted through that U.S. shares had closed just

below record highs on Tuesday, and world stocks are 0.5% off

all-time peaks hit last year.

"It was noticeable that fixed income markets rallied despite

equity markets being stable, suggestive of a market that remains

cautious about the growth outlook," ANZ told clients.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which have fallen in six out

of the past seven sessions, slipped as much as 5 basis points to

1.73%, a 2-1/2 -week low US10YT=RR .

German bonds fell for the third straight day to touch a

2-1/2 week low DE10YT=RR , shrugging off European Central Bank

Chief Economist Philip Lane's comment that the euro zone economy

would not fall into a recession.

"We have this classical risk-off trade taking place again,"

Rainer Guntermann, a rates strategist at Commerzbank, said.

THE R WORD

Commodity and bond market moves imply fears of economic

recession may be creeping back with Brent crude steadying after

a 2.6% tumble, its biggest in seven weeks LCoc1

Japan's October exports fanned these fears, falling at their

quickest rate in three years while China cut lending rates to

support growth which is near 30-year lows. A marked flattening of the U.S. bond curve -- the gap

between two-year and 10-year yields is at its narrowest in more

than two weeks -- also hints at a return of recession fears.

The curve inverted earlier this year, returning to normal

only after three U.S. interest rate cuts.

But Federal Reserve officials have hinted there will be no

further easing for now, a message the U.S. central bank may

reiterate later in the day when it releases minutes from its

last meeting. Markets are now pricing in just a 0.8% chance of a

December rate cut FEDWATCH .

Dour forecasts from retailers Home Depot and Kohl's also

fuelled worries about U.S. consumer spending, which has so far

been robust, in contrast to manufacturing.

"We've had a bit of topping out of the U.S. consumer in the

past couple of months," Lombard Odier's Ahmed said.

On currencies, the dollar nudged lower versus the yen to

108.4 JPY= but firmed 0.2% versus a basket of currencies

.DXY . Sterling slipped 0.3%, pressured by dollar strength and

a better-than-expected performance by left-wing opposition

leader Jeremy Corbyn in pre-election TV debates. But sterling and UK domestic stocks .FTMC remain supported

by opinion polls showing a hefty lead for Prime Minister Boris

Johnson's ruling Conservatives, viewed by some as more

market-friendly. If the Conservatives win a majority on Dec. 12, expectations

are parliament would approve the Brexit deal Johnson agreed with

Brussels last month and Britain would exit the European Union on

Jan. 31, ending three-and-a-half years of uncertainty.

US yield curve https://tmsnrt.rs/2Xwm60p

Odds on Conservative majority vs. UK assets https://tmsnrt.rs/343MPE1

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