By Investing.com
Ketki Saxena
Breaking news:
Senior US intelligence officials have just confirmed that 2 Russian missiles landed in Poland, killing two people.
The rockets landed on the border near Ukraine, with some analysts suggesting the rockets' intended target may have been Lviv, a Ukrainian city about 100km south of Przewodów. The rockets may have been intended as part of Russia's mass bombardment of Ukrainian cities earlier today, which saw over 100 rockets launched.
What is certain however is that the missile fell 65 kilometres within Poland - a NATO state.
The attack could prompt Poland to trigger NATO's Article 5 provisions, calling on all of the treaty's members to attack Russia. According to Article 5, an attack against one NATO Ally is considered an attack against all Allies.
While history does not repeat, it does rhyme. t was not a direct attack on an Allied state, but the invasion of neutral Poland by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany that drew Poland’s Western Allies into what would become WW2.
It is also worth noting that WW1 was triggered by the German invasion of neutral Belgium, invoking a treaty that called on the UK to protect its continental ally.
Following today’s attack, Poland's Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs "as a matter of urgency”.
Meanwhile, Polish Armed Forces are reportedly on "high alert".
In terms of what the news means for markets, risk-sentiment which has been receding following a perceived pivot from the Fed, is likely to go through the roof. We’ll be watching the VIX as the story develops.