AMD Q1 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on Guidance

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) stock is down 17% this year, while iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is down 12%, which has 7% AMD holdings. Investors will be eyeing the company guidance for future revenue. AMD disclosed in a filing that it would take up to $800 million in inventory and purchase commitment charges related to tighter export control license restrictions to China.

Key Highlights

• AMD’s diversified product portfolio across multiple segments of the semiconductor market provides stability and growth opportunities even if it faces setbacks in any single market segment.
• Continued market share gains in traditional CPU markets for both servers and client devices, with upcoming Zen 5 architecture and Turin server CPUs expected to further strengthen competitive position against Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).
• The strategy of targeting high-volume AI workloads with the MI300 series could pay off eventually, potentially capturing a larger share of the growing AI chip market, particularly in segments where NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) premium pricing may be less attractive.
• AMD faces significant challenges in competing with NVIDIA’s established position in the AI accelerator market, including NVIDIA’s first-mover advantage and robust software ecosystem.
• Increasing competition from custom silicon solutions developed by major cloud providers like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) may limit AMD’s addressable market.

AMD Q1 2025 earnings after-market Tuesday May 6, 2025

Financial Health History

Financial Health for Meta (NASDAQ:META) Platform is determined by ranking the company on over 100 factors against companies in the Information Technology sector and operating in Developed economic markets.

Option Statistics

Put/Call ratio suggests the following three scenarios:

• With Put/Call ratio between 0.7647 to 0.5795 for the next four upcoming expiries suggests that the overall option traders’ position is inclined towards Calls.
• Lower earnings and guidance could trigger a sharp dip lower.
• Better-than-expected guidance would trigger a gradual rise.
• Option market is showing a large net positive Gamma at 105 & 150 strike versus a large net negative gamma exposure at 95 & 91 strike over the spectrum of May 2025 to December 2027.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• AMD is trading inside August 2020 to July 2021 congestion zone between 95 – 72 range, hitting 76.50 low on April 08, 2025.
• A long-term rising trend line is holding on the downside between 82 - 78. And a major falling trend line is coming into picture around 126 -133.
• Prices may dip to retest 82 – 78 trend line support post earnings. Such a dip would bring in buyers.
• Extremely positive future guidance would pave the way for a rally to 126 – 133 in coming months.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

AMD Seasonality Chart:

• AMD closes 7.6 % higher in May 60% of the time since 2006.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners (WA:CPAP), and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training. Follow us on “X” formerly Twitter “@twtlearning.”