TSX runs higher on rate cut expectations
- US policy moves on 401(k) crypto access and Miran’s Fed nomination boost sentiment.
- Pension system integration could legitimize crypto and unlock trillions in potential liquidity.
- Break above $119,000 may extend rally, while failure risks drop toward $109,500.
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Bitcoin moved up again this week, helped by two key political moves in the US. First, the Trump administration is preparing an order to allow cryptocurrencies in 401(k) pension plans. Second, Stephen Miran, known for his support of crypto, has been nominated to the Fed Board of Governors.
These steps have strengthened hopes for a friendlier policy environment for digital assets and boosted market demand. In addition, the SEC’s continued positive approach to the sector is easing pressure on crypto markets.
Factors Containing Bitcoin’s Pullback
Miran’s nomination is also seen as a sign of a looser monetary policy ahead. This is good news for cryptocurrencies. Many believe the Fed’s long period of tightening is close to ending, and if a pro–free market figure like Miran joins the board, that shift could happen faster. This would be a strong boost for assets like Bitcoin, which are often viewed as a hedge against inflation.
On the other hand, the planned step for the 401(k) system could have a much bigger impact on the cryptocurrency market. The US pension system, worth trillions of dollars, is one of the largest liquidity sources in global finance. Bringing crypto assets into this framework would not only trigger a surge in demand, but also give them greater legitimacy by embedding them within institutional structures.
Such a move could mirror the boost that the ETF market gave to Bitcoin. Over time, this kind of policy shift could also deepen the link between crypto and traditional finance, helping to reduce volatility and create a more stable price environment.
However, despite these positive drivers, the uptrend still faces short-term risks. On-chain data shows a slowdown in network activity, indicating that the recent rally was driven mainly by short liquidations. A decisive break above the next resistance level will likely require stronger network engagement and higher trading volumes.
For now, recent developments have supported the crypto market and helped avert a deeper correction. Bitcoin’s short-term momentum remains strong, but its durability will depend more on sustained individual and institutional demand than on regulatory clarity.
Will Bitcoin Break Through July Resistance?
From a technical perspective, this week’s developments allowed Bitcoin to rebound after slipping below the $114,600 support. This has so far kept last week’s downtrend in check and triggered a fresh move toward the critical resistance zone.
Bitcoin is now testing the $117,000 level, a short-term support seen in July. A daily close above this zone could open the way for a move toward $120,000, with a weekly close in that band becoming key for trend strength. If a breakout occurs, the short-term target stands near $125,500. Technical indicators back this view, as EMA values are starting to turn upward and the Stochastic RSI points to a possible push toward $120,000.
The $119,000 mark within the $117,000–$120,000 range remains a key pivot. Failure to break above this level could trigger renewed selling. In that case, $114,500 will act as the first major support. A drop below this could lead to a decline toward $109,500, aligning with the 3-month EMA, and potentially further to $106,000.
Overall, sentiment around Bitcoin carries cautious optimism, supported by the potential for higher trading volumes. However, how sellers position themselves near $119,000 will likely shape the asset’s path in the coming weeks.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.