United Homes Group stock plunges after Nikki Haley, directors resign
Market recovery continues, and VIX falls hard.
After the move higher on Friday afternoon, stocks opened up higher still this morning, with the S&P moving back above 6,700. The move higher is broad-based, with only consumer staples in the red. The VIX has moved down from 21 to below 19. A White House spokesperson suggested this morning that the government shutdown could end this week.
Earnings are quiet today, but it’s a very big week. Tomorrow, we get Netflix (NFLX), GE Aerospace (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), and Philip Morris (PM). Wednesday is Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), and AT&T (T). Outside of bad loan issues at a couple of regional banks, the earnings so far have been very bullish in general.
On the commodity front, gold is higher, up 3%, headed to yet another new all-time high. People are now calling for a run to $5K by year’s end. Central bank buying of gold is seen as a diversification away from the US dollar, but it’s ETF buying that has driven the latest moves higher.
Silver is back above $51/oz, and there are rumors of a shortage of physical delivery against contracts here. Copper is hovering above $5/oz. Crude oil dipped briefly below $56/bbl, the lowest since 2020. Natural gas has climbed back above $3.25/mcf. Crypto is modestly higher today, with Bitcoin at $111.2K, up from below $106K just last Thursday.
Interest rates are essentially flat today, with the US 10-year holding at 4%. International bond rates are largely flat as well. Bets for a rate cut in December to 3.5% are now 98%, and another cut in January has risen to 59%, and a further cut in March to 31%. The US dollar index is holding above 98.25.
Momentum remains positive and has now become earnings-driven, which should propel the market into year-end, outside of any Black Swan events.