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Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 copper price forecast to $10,500 per ton, signaling that the metal is entering a new valuation era driven by structural demand growth and persistent supply tightness. The bank expects copper to trade within a new range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton, a level it has rarely maintained in past cycles, as resource constraints and decarbonization demand reshape long-term pricing dynamics.
In the current trade, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange have eased slightly to $10,671 per ton, down 0.8% on the day, but prices remain more than 7% higher for the month. That resilience reflects a market increasingly anchored by long-term fundamentals rather than short-term sentiment.
Supportive Policy and Supply Constraints
Goldman’s upward revision rests on three reinforcing drivers. First, a temporary production halt at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine has tightened global supply. Second, a weaker US dollar has lifted dollar-denominated commodities. Third, expectations for interest-rate cuts across major central banks have boosted the outlook for industrial activity.
These conditions highlight copper’s dual role in today’s macro environment. It responds to monetary liquidity and growth cycles but is also underpinned by structural trends tied to electrification, data-center expansion, and renewable energy infrastructure. As central banks ease policy, financing conditions for grid and construction projects are expected to improve, reinforcing copper’s medium-term demand base.
Structural Shifts Setting a New Floor
Goldman analysts argue that copper is moving toward a permanent revaluation rather than a cyclical rebound. Years of underinvestment and slower mine approvals have limited supply just as consumption linked to electric vehicles, AI data centers, and power-grid modernization accelerates. From 2026 onward, these forces are expected to create a new price floor around $10,000 per ton.
This evolution mirrors a broader transition in commodity markets, where investors increasingly treat industrial metals as strategic assets integral to energy security and technological competitiveness rather than as mere barometers of global growth.
Investor Outlook
For investors, the message is clear. The red metal’s resilience near record levels suggests the start of a structural regime rather than a late-cycle rally. Mining equities, producers, and energy-transition-linked funds stand to benefit if prices consolidate above the $10,000 threshold.
Volatility driven by China’s consumption patterns and geopolitical supply risks will persist, yet the balance of evidence points toward sustained strength. Goldman’s call underscores a pivotal shift: copper is being repriced for the next decade, not just the next quarter.