EUR/USD: Pressure Mounts With Momentum Firmly to the Downside

EUR/USD closed at 1.1610, posting an intraday high of 1.1622 and a low of 1.1607. The pair remains under sustained pressure, extending its drift lower amid persistent dollar strength and weakening euro sentiment. Technical indicators point to a bearish bias as sellers continue to dominate below the moving averages.

Key Technical Observations

Moving Averages Bearishly Aligned: The 15-day moving average (1.1628) and 20-day moving average (1.1654) are both sloping downward, with price trading below both — reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. This configuration highlights sustained downside pressure as sellers control the market beneath the 1.1650 zone.

Trend Structure: The pair continues to form a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, maintaining a well-defined descending channel from the early-year highs near 1.1800. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.1600 psychological mark — a key inflection point. A daily close below this area could trigger fresh declines toward 1.1550–1.1500.

RSI Momentum: The RSI stands at 44.22, below the neutral 50 level, reflecting bearish momentum without yet reaching oversold conditions. This indicates there is still room for further downside extension before exhaustion sets in.

Price Action: Repeated failures to reclaim 1.1700 underscore fading bullish conviction. Current consolidation above 1.1600 suggests that the market may be coiling for a potential breakdown if buyers fail to defend this level.

Macro & Market Context

Dollar Strength Persists: The U.S. dollar continues to benefit from resilient U.S. economic data and sticky inflation, keeping the Federal Reserve cautious about early rate cuts. This contrasts with the ECB’s dovish stance, where slowing eurozone growth and easing inflation are reinforcing expectations for policy loosening.

Yield Differential Factor: US Treasury yields remain elevated relative to eurozone bond yields, maintaining a structural headwind for the euro.

Risk Sentiment Influence: Modest risk aversion in global markets is adding to euro weakness, as the dollar attracts safe-haven flows amid geopolitical and macro uncertainties.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: 1.1650 – 20-day moving average and short-term pivot zone.
• Next Resistance: 1.1700 – psychological barrier and prior rejection area.
• Immediate Support: 1.1600 – key psychological level.
• Deeper Support: 1.1550 and 1.1500 – next downside targets if breakdown continues.

Bias: Bearish

Short-term structure and momentum favour the downside. A sustained break below 1.1600 would confirm a bearish continuation toward 1.1550–1.1500. Only a daily close above 1.1700 would neutralize the bearish bias and hint at a recovery.

The bias favours sell rallies toward 1.1650–1.1680, targeting 1.1550–1.1500, with stops above 1.1720. The RSI suggests momentum still supports further weakness, and price action below the moving averages reinforces that rallies are likely to be short-lived unless the dollar weakens materially.