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October has historically been a bullish month for EUR/USD, which peaked out to 4-year highs last month - see the key levels to watch for the euro and all the major currency pairs!
October Forex Seasonality Key Points
- October has historically been a bullish month for EUR/USD, which peaked out to 4-year highs last month.
- USD/JPY remains in the midst of a seasonally weak period, though its near-term technical uptrend remains (just) intact for now.
- Monetary policy divergences are likely to play a bigger role in currency performance as we move toward the end of the year.
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.
As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, October has been a modestly bullish month for EUR/USD, with the world’s most widely-traded currency pair sporting an average return of +0.30% over the last 50+ year. In September, EUR/USD peeked out to a 4+ year high near 1.1900 before pulling back to finish only modestly positive on the month.
Rising inflation in Europe could well keep the ECB on hold this month, whereas the Fed appears headed for another interest rate cut, potentially narrowing the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. EUR/USD bulls may want to wait for a confirmed breakout above 1.1910 resistance before feeling comfortable pushing the 2025 trend further.
British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Looking at the above chart, GBP/USD has, on average, seen generally strong performance in October, with average returns of around +0.26% since 1971. Like the euro, the British pound traded higher in September before fading to close near flat. Unlike its mainland cousin, though, Cable failed to make a new high last month, leaving the trend more vulnerable if bears can breach support at 1.3325.
Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
October has historically been a modestly bearish month for USD/JPY, with the pair falling by an average of -0.25% since the Bretton Woods agreement. USD/JPY chopped around last month, ultimately finishing near flat in the mid-147.00s.
For this month, the key support level to watch will be at the convergence of the year-to-date bullish trend line and the 100-day MA near 147.00, with an outside shot of a BOJ interest rate hike providing a potential bearish catalyst for the pair (bullish catalyst for USD/JPY).
Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Turning our attention Down Under, AUD/USD has historically seen mixed performance in October, with an average drop of +0.03% going back to 1971. Last month, the Aussie bucked its bearish seasonal trend to hit fresh 2025 highs before pulling back to close the month near previous highs in the 0.6600 area.
For October, the seasonal trend offers little in the way of a strong bias, so traders may be better off focusing on the fundamental data both Down Under and in the world’s largest economy.
Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Last but not least, October has been a positive month for USD/CAD, with an average historical return of +0.20%, the third-best performance of all 12 months. The Canadian dollar actually saw the worst performance of all the major currencies in September, hurt by economic data and a new round of US tariffs (ongoing weakness in oil prices certainly didn’t help either!).
USD/CAD has now quietly put in a series of six higher lows since bottoming in June, raising hopes that a (gradual) uptrend has set in, in line with the seasonal trend.
As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel – even if they’ve tracked relatively closely so far this year – so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major currency pairs.