Fed Rate Cut Fails to Spark Expected Rally in Small Caps

Published 18/09/2025, 05:22
Updated 18/09/2025, 08:54

Trump defenders - or Trump himself - will not survive history, but markets gave their opinion, and yesterday was not good for bulls or Trump. What’s interesting is that it’s not unfair to say the majority of market influencers lean right, but the lack of a favorable reaction to the rate cut would suggest disquiet, and run contrary to the bullishness markets have demonstrated for most of the summer.

But we also have to accept that markets are apolitical, and you can’t judge your investment decisions through the lens of being left or right.

Small Caps (IWM) had the worst of action. While the headlines will show a net gain, they won’t show the nasty "gravestone" doji on higher volume. We have a ’sell’ signal in the MACD that runs contrary to the ’buy’ in On-Balance-Volume. If we see a gain in gravestone spike, we will have a good chance of a negation in its bearish implication, but a loss today will spell trouble.

IWM-Daily Chart

The S&P 500 didn’t suffer too much. No confirmed distribution, and the losses weren’t as bearish as the gains in the Russell 2000. Take a wait-and-see approach. Technicals are net bullish.

SPX-Daily Chart

The Nasdaq is in a similar situation to the S&P 500. We wait for the next move, but it should be higher given what’s come before.

Nasdaq Composite-Daily Chart

Let’s see how markets finish by Friday’s close. Weekly charts are positive, and if they remain so by the end of this week, it will negate the bearishness on the daily timeframe. Otherwise, we will have to consider the damage.

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