Currency Analysis & Comment

Our assumption in December was that a US-Canada trade war could take USD/CAD to 1.50. That is now a clear possibility. The two key factors for FX are how long US tariffs will stay in place and the...

The Trump administration has surprised FX markets by imposing large tariffs earlier than expected. The US dollar has strengthened sharply on the back of lower global growth expectations and...

EUR/USD turns bearish, testing 1.0200, break below targets parity USD/CAD hits 22-year highs; momentum indicators support further gains USD/CNH faces key resistance at 7.3750; watch for possible...

CAD and MXN tumbled yesterday as Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on both countries by tomorrow. Whether he delivers on this threat will determine price action for the broader FX...

It's a busy day ahead in FX markets. The highlight should be another 25bp cut from the ECB, but we'll get plenty of fourth-quarter GDP data from the US and Europe. Elsewhere, we think this week's...

The currency market has followed the stabilization in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings. We don’t think the Fed's conditions for a dovish tilt have been met,...

Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...

The US dollar's fate hinges on key central bank decisions and Trump’s trade rhetoric this week. Fed and ECB moves, combined with trade tensions, will likely determine the dollar's next...

Our recent article, Why Are Bond Yields Rising, explains that the recent 1% increase in yields, as shown below, is almost entirely due to negative sentiment. As we wrote, the bond market calls...

The Bank of Japan delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp hike, but surprised markets on the hawkish side by materially raising its inflation forecasts. We expect two more hikes this year which can pave...

Markets have continued to unwind US Dollar longs as US Treasuries had another strong session, and a delay in tariff announcements is fuelling some tentative optimism. That said, we could start to see...

The narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world have been a key theme in the improving Japanese yen forecast in the last couple of weeks. The main USD/JPY pair...

USD/JPY could face volatility as Trump’s policy moves and the BOJ meeting loom large. Speculation grows over a potential rate hike by the BOJ, with inflation and Treasury yields hitting decade...

The US dollar suffered a positioning squeeze yesterday as Trump fell short of announcing universal tariffs on day one. However, USD/CAD and USD/MXN are facing more downside risks as the new president...