Gold prices slid below $4,000/oz amid profit-taking on Gaza ceasefire
The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.3398, with an intraday high of 1.3422 and a low of 1.3390. It remains under mild pressure after failing to sustain above the 1.3600 handle, as the US dollar regains modest strength and bullish momentum fades.
Key Technical Observations
Moving Averages Turning Bearish: The 15-day moving average (1.3456) has crossed below the 20-day moving average (1.3492), signalling a shift toward short-term downside bias. The slope of both averages is flattening to negative, reinforcing a weakening bullish structure.
Trend Structure: The pair has transitioned from an uptrend into a sideways-to-lower channel, with price consolidating below the 1.3500 mark. A break below 1.3350 could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.3200.
RSI Bearish-Neutral: The RSI reads 43.08, below the 50 mark, indicating fading momentum and mild bearish pressure. Momentum remains subdued, suggesting sellers are gradually gaining control.
Support Retest: Price is hovering near a key horizontal support zone between 1.3350–1.3400, which has held multiple times in recent weeks.
Macro & Market Context
US dollar Recovery (DXY Link): The US Dollar Index (DXY) has found footing near its lower boundary, capping the pair upside.
BoE vs Fed Policy Dynamics: While the Bank of England remains cautious amid slowing inflation, the Fed’s stable stance supports the dollar, narrowing rate differentials.
Risk Sentiment: Global risk tone remains neutral, with limited catalysts to drive sterling higher in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 1.3500 – short-term ceiling, aligned with moving average cluster.
- Next Resistance: 1.3600 – key psychological and structural pivot.
- Immediate Support: 1.3350 – horizontal base.
- Deeper Support: 1.3200 – medium-term swing low.
Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral
The bias has turned mildly bearish, with the pair vulnerable to a downside break if the 1.3350–1.3400 support fails. Recovery toward 1.3500 may face strong resistance, keeping the pair range-bound unless momentum shifts decisively.
Caution is warranted — the pair remains in a sell-on-rally environment unless it reclaims 1.3500–1.3550 on a sustained basis. A confirmed breakdown below 1.3350 could accelerate downside toward 1.3200, while dips may attract tactical buyers near the support zone for short-term rebounds.
