Gold prices just lower; monthly gains on track
Gold is approaching a critical inflection point as price consolidates just above the dual daily and weekly VC PMI pivots ($3398–$3400). This level is acting as a gravitational “mean reversion magnet,” where institutional flows balance out. The ability to sustain closes above this zone signals that the market is shifting from rebalancing to accumulation, positioning itself for a potential breakout toward the higher Sell 1 ($3440–$3444) and Sell 2 ($3462–$3468) targets. The narrow alignment of daily and weekly resistance reinforces these levels as powerful reversal or profit-taking zones, likely requiring strong momentum to penetrate decisively.
The 30-day Gann cycle suggests that August 21–23 marked a minor cycle trough, aligning closely with the sharp intraday reversal from $3353.4. This pivot low now becomes the key swing anchor, and if the 30-day rhythm continues, we can anticipate another upswing window into mid-September (around Sept 20–22). In the interim, the market may oscillate around $3400, using it as a fulcrum until volume expands again.
On the broader horizon, the 360-day Gann cycle, anchored from the September 2024 pivot, projects a major harmonic completion into late August–September 2025. This coincides with the current timeframe, raising the probability that the price structure around $3350–$3400 is not only a short-term pivot but also a long-term cycle low from which a larger trend leg could emerge. If this cycle interpretation holds, the market could be in the early phase of a sustained advance targeting $3550–$3600 into Q4 2025.
The Square of 9 harmonics reinforce this alignment: the $3339–$3341 B2 support cluster lies on a key 180° harmonic from the March 2025 high, suggesting that the washout low last week completed a geometric rotation. Price now rotates forward toward the $3440–$3468 band, which aligns with the 90° square from the same axis. These harmonics, layered over VC PMI probabilities, elevate the $3440–$3468 region as a high-probability resistance zone where traders should look for signs of either breakout continuation or exhaustion.
Momentum, however, remains in flux. The MACD is still negative (-3.89) but flattening, hinting that the recent rally was corrective rather than impulsive. If buyers defend $3400 on retests, momentum should flip positive, confirming the cycle-based bullish bias. Conversely, a breakdown below $3374–$3380 would re-open the path to the $3328–$3341 demand cluster, a critical cycle-harmonic support zone.
Summary View
- Bullish bias above $3400, targeting $3440–$3468.
- 30-day cycle: Next upswing window into Sept 20–22.
- 360-day cycle: Major low aligning with Aug–Sept 2025.
- Square of 9 harmonics: $3340 key support, $3460 resistance cluster.
Gold sits at a cycle-driven mean reversion inflection, with the next two weeks poised to define whether the breakout extends or reverts.
***
TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.