Asia stocks upbeat on US tech rise; Japan reverses gains on BOJ ETF sale plans
Gold futures (/GC) continue to oscillate in a tightly wound trading band, pressing against key resistance while riding the undercurrent of a powerful cyclical setup. At $3,733.6, the market is testing the Sell 1 Daily level ($3,737), a zone that aligns closely with the Sell 1 Weekly ($3,727) and projects into the Sell 2 bands ($3,764–$3,767). These overlapping supply areas mark a high-probability reversion cluster, where price tends to exhaust upside momentum before reverting back toward the mean.
The VC PMI Daily pivot ($3,702) has acted as the fulcrum of balance, with buyers defending the level repeatedly since late last week. As long as price action sustains closes above $3,702, the bias remains modestly bullish. A confirmed close above $3,737 would likely open the path toward the Sell 2 zone near $3,764–$3,767, which coincides with the Square of 9 spiral projection at 90° from the September 28, 2024 anchor low. That alignment suggests that the resistance band is not only algorithmic but also geometric in nature, amplifying its significance.
On the downside, the market continues to respect strong weekly demand. The Buy 1 Weekly ($3,634) and Buy 2 Weekly ($3,581) served as pivotal lows last week, with the Friday trough at $3,651 marking a cycle low inside the 30-day Gann vibration window. If the market fails to sustain above $3,702, probability shifts toward mean reversion into Buy 1 Daily ($3,680), with deeper risk of testing $3,640–$3,634.
The 360-day Gann cycle that culminates on September 28, 2025, looms as the dominant timing factor. Historically, these one-year cycles define major reversals in gold, and the market’s current resilience near highs suggests the possibility of a right-translated cycle — where instead of collapsing into the date, gold holds firm and accelerates higher into Q4. If this inverted dynamic unfolds, a breakout through $3,767 could unlock upside spirals toward $3,820–$3,840, the next Square of 9 harmonic turns.
Momentum indicators confirm this coiled condition. The MACD remains slightly negative (–1.58) but is curling upward, reflecting latent energy that could be released should resistance crack. Volatility compression within converging trendlines points to an imminent expansion in range.
In conclusion, gold is at a decisive inflection point: a confirmed close above $3,737 projects toward $3,764–$3,767, while failure to hold $3,702 invites reversion back toward $3,680 and $3,640. Cycle timing into late September suggests that whichever side resolves will define the trajectory into the final quarter of 2025.
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