Gold Futures Enter Inflection Zone as Market Prepares for Next Major Move

Gold futures are entering a critical inflection zone as the market consolidates around $4,126.9, down a modest 0.26% for the session. The 15-minute chart reveals a tightening structure following an impulsive decline from the October high of $4,398 to the recent low of $4,021, defining a clear corrective leg within a broader bullish framework. This phase appears to be part of a 30–60–90-day mean reversion cycle, where price compresses before re-expanding into the next directional move.

The Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator (VC PMI) identifies the weekly mean at $4,186, a pivotal control point that defines the boundary between bullish and bearish territory. Trading below this level has sustained a short-term neutral-to-bearish bias, but the inability of sellers to push decisively below the Buy 1 Daily ($4,076) and Buy 2 Daily ($4,015) zones suggests the downside pressure is fading. Each test of these supports has been met with strong buying activity, reflecting accumulation near the lower reversion bands.

Momentum indicators confirm this shift. The MACD (14,3,3) has started flattening near the zero line, indicating waning downside energy and potential for a momentum crossover. Volume profiles reinforce this interpretation—trading activity has contracted since the early-week low, signaling that sellers are losing control as volatility begins to compress. Within the VC PMI framework, this type of contraction often precedes a volatility expansion and trend reversal.

Overhead resistance forms a dense cluster between $4,186 and $4,350, a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8%–78.6%) and the Weekly Sell 1 ($4,350) zone. A daily close above $4,186 would confirm mean reversion to equilibrium and open the door for a continuation toward the $4,319–$4,350 resistance band, potentially even stretching to the Sell 2 Weekly level at $4,562 if momentum accelerates.

From a cyclical perspective, gold is approaching the midpoint of its 60-day Gann cycle, projected to reach a pivot window in late November. This timing aligns with a broader 90-day harmonic expansion, which could mark a reversal phase within the larger 360-day uptrend. If this cyclical symmetry holds, current price action represents the market’s final coiling phase before a new leg higher.

In summary, gold is compressing between strong support near $4,035–$4,076 and heavy resistance around $4,186–$4,350. The probability model favors a reversion to the mean and a bullish breakout as the next cycle window approaches. Sustaining closes above $4,186 would confirm renewed upward momentum, setting the stage for a test of $4,319–$4,350 and beyond into year-end.

TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.