Gold Futures Hold $4,000 Zone as Time and Price Cycles Align for Reversal

Published 22/10/2025, 14:32
Updated 22/10/2025, 14:38

Structural Overview

Gold futures are trading near $4,072, down 0.9% for the session, consolidating around the Buy 1 Daily level ($4,003). The structure shows a completed five-wave decline from the recent high at $4,398 — a classic Elliott-style exhaustion wave aligning with the Sell 1 Weekly ($4,389) and VC PMI Weekly mean ($4,205). This structure identifies the 4020 – 4000 zone as a key mean-reversion inflection area.

VC PMI Framework and Probabilities

Gold Futures-15-Min Chart

The VC PMI Weekly ($4,205) serves as the pivotal mean. Closing below it confirms a bearish weekly bias, projecting Buy 1 ($4,018) and Buy 2 ($3,825) as reversion targets. Price action has now completed that rotation, with intraday lows hitting $4,021, perfectly aligning with the Buy 1 Weekly support.

If the market closes above $4,205, momentum would flip bullish, targeting the Sell 1 ($4,389) and Sell 2 ($4,586) levels. For now, however, Gold remains in a cyclically exhausted down-swing, testing the final phase of mean reversion.

Fibonacci and Square of 9 Convergence

The 161.8 % extension ($4,585.9) aligns precisely with the Sell 2 Weekly, confirming geometric resonance on the Square of 9 spiral. On the lower axis, the 0 % retracement ($4,000) corresponds to a cardinal 0° degree, marking strong Gann-time/price symmetry. These levels form the “ring of vibration” where turning points typically emerge.

Gann 30-60-90-360 Cycle Alignment

Gold Mean Reversion Projection

The expanded Gold Futures (/GC) line chart above projects through October 31, 2025.

It visually extends the mean-reversion phase from the $4,000 zone, showing a potential recovery toward $4,350–$4,389 by month-end — in alignment with the VC PMI Weekly pivot ($4,205) and the Sell 1 Weekly target ($4,389).

This projection captures the anticipated cycle reversal window into late October, suggesting that the low near $4,000 may have marked the completion of the short-term 30-day correction phase.

Counting from the prior 30-day cycle low (Sept 22), this session completes the 30-day harmonic window, suggesting a time-price convergence. The 60-day cycle extends into Nov 22, potentially marking the next acceleration phase. Longer-term 90-day and 360-day harmonics project into Jan 22 and Sept 2026, respectively — windows historically associated with major trend re-inversions.

MACD and Momentum

The MACD (14-3-3) is showing signs of flattening, with a minor bullish divergence appearing as price hits $4,021.2. Volume has expanded into the buy zone, reinforcing the probability of mean-reversion back toward $4,205–$4,300.

Summary Outlook

Gold has completed a classical reversion to the Buy 1 zone (≈ $4,000) while maintaining the integrity of the long-term uptrend. A sustained close above $4,205 would likely trigger an algorithmic buy reversal, aiming for $4,389 and $4,586. Failure to hold $4,000, however, exposes the deeper Buy 2 Weekly ($3,825) zone. The time-cycle and geometric structure together suggest that the current week may represent a critical turning point ahead of the November cycle window.

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