S&P 500 struggles for direction as investor await inflation data
Gold rebounded emphatically from Tuesday’s low near 3,901, reclaiming the VC PMI Daily Pivot at 3,973, which flips the short-term bias to bullish. Our cycle composite—30-, 60-, 90- and 360-day harmonics anchored to the 9/28/25 cycle date—projects a series of higher swing highs into December. The 30-day rhythm drives near-term oscillations, while the 60/90-day waves provide the mid-trend cadence; a gently rising 360-day wave supplies the structural tailwind. This confluence sketches a path that respects mean reversion yet targets progressively higher equilibrium.
From a levels’ standpoint, the first objective is Sell-1 (4,044), already interacting as near-term resistance; a decisive daily close above opens Sell-2 (4,106). Clearing 4,106 invites the Square-of-9 ladder at 4,090.5 → 4,150.2 → 4,210.0, where we expect profit-taking and rotational mean reversion. The projection curve favors a test of 4,150± into the late-November/early-December cycle crest, followed by a normal pullback toward the pivot band before a secondary push into the 4,210 grid as the 90-day component peaks near year-end.
Risk is well-defined. Weekly Buy-1 (3,973) is our primary defensive line; loss of 4,016 on a closing basis would neutralize the short-term edge and raise the probability of a reversion sweep toward 3,973–3,911. Momentum internals corroborate the cycle picture: the MACD has turned up from deeply negative territory, consistent with early-phase recoveries that often carry two to three sessions before their first pause.
Playbook: Buy pullbacks that hold 4,016–4,028 with initial targets 4,044 → 4,106, scaling risk below the pivot. If price accepts above 4,106, trail into the Square-of-9 rungs at 4,150 and 4,210. Should the market close back under 4,016, step aside and wait for 3,973–3,911 to reset risk-reward.
Bottom line: the cycle composite and VC PMI are synchronized bullishly into December. We’ll respect the mean, sell strength into Square-of-9 targets, and re-engage on statistically favorable pullbacks—letting the structure, not emotion, do the heavy lifting.
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