Gold Rebounds From $3,901 Low, Confirming Mean Reversion Breakout

Published 31/10/2025, 19:02
Updated 31/10/2025, 19:10

Gold futures continue to assert a powerful recovery phase as price action stabilizes above the key VC PMI mean of $3,994, currently trading near $4,033.6, up +$17 on the day. This rebound represents a clear technical validation of the mean reversion principle after gold reached an oversold condition earlier in the week at $3,901.3, precisely touching the Buy 2 Daily level of $3,877. From that inflection point, buyers have stepped in aggressively, reversing the short-term bearish structure and shifting momentum toward the next reversionary target zones defined by the VC PMI and Fibonacci alignments.

The daily VC PMI framework now establishes a well-defined roadmap:

Gold Futures

  • Buy 2: $3,877

  • Buy 1: $3,947

  • Mean (VC PMI): $3,994

  • Sell 1: $4,064

  • Sell 2: $4,111

This structure encapsulates gold’s short-term rhythm, with equilibrium at $3,994 serving as the pivot magnet. Sustained closes above this level strengthen the case for a test of Sell 1 and Sell 2 zones ($4,064–$4,111), where profit-taking and counter-trend activity may reemerge. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,090.5 and the 50% retracement at $4,150.2 further reinforce these levels as confluence resistance zones, where the probability of mean reversion rises sharply.

From a weekly perspective, the Buy 1 level at $3,973 has proven to be the structural floor for this phase. Holding this level confirms the weekly uptrend remains intact, targeting the PMI Weekly at $4,186 as the next major resistance and potential breakout point. If achieved, this would confirm a full recovery of the prior swing down from $4,186 to $3,901—a 285-point rally aligning perfectly with the 30-day cycle expansion window.

Cycle analysis supports this bullish tone. The 30-day cycle, now in its upward leg from the early-October trough, projects into an early November crest near $4,150. The 60- and 90-day cycles converge through December, implying continued appreciation into the $4,200–$4,300 range. The broader 360-day Gann cycle, measured from the 2025 low, suggests gold is entering a parabolic expansion phase consistent with a multi-year supercycle advance. This time-price harmony across short and long-term intervals underscores growing probability for continuation.

Gold Futures - Gann Cycle

Technically, the MACD (14,3,3) has crossed upward from a negative divergence, supporting renewed bullish energy. Volume spikes during upward moves confirm accumulation beneath resistance.

In summary, gold’s technical landscape reflects a synchronized mean reversion breakout with firm support at $3,947 and resistance emerging at $4,111–$4,150. A close above these levels would validate the next target zone toward $4,186, confirming gold’s transition from consolidation to expansion within its 2025–2026 supercycle trajectory.

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Disclosure: Futures trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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