Gold Trading at Cycle Crossroads: Bullish Springboard or Bearish Inversion?

Published 13/08/2025, 20:38
Updated 13/08/2025, 20:42

The gold market is locked in a triple-compression phase — a rare moment when time, price, and cycle structure align to create a high-probability pivot window. This is the kind of setup that experienced traders wait months to see. On the chart, the horizontal lines represent the critical price gates defined by VC PMI pivots and Square of 9 harmonics, while the vertical lines are Gann time windows — the clock striking those moments when history shows directional changes are most likely.

1. Immediate Setup – The Aug 13–16 Window

From the August 7 high at $3,534.10, Gann’s short-term harmonic count gives us the first 45° time rotation right on Aug 13–14, followed by the 90° cycle date on Aug 15–16.
This produces a 3-day “time cluster” — a compressed window where reversals or accelerations tend to unfold with speed.

Gold Futures (GC) Chart

Right now, gold sits directly on Weekly Buy 1 support at $3,415, with Daily Sell 2 resistance at $3,428 just overhead. This is textbook mean reversion territory, where the odds of reversal are amplified because time and price have reached harmonic balance.

2. Price Architecture – Square of 9 & VC PMI Confluence

Gold Futures - Price Architecture

Rotating from the $3,534 high on the Square of 9 wheel gives us precise harmonic “vibration points” that match with VC PMI levels:

  • $3,381 – Already tested intraday and held.

  • $3,338 – The major harmonic low and Weekly Buy 2 zone, the “cycle floor” where buying probability peaks.

On the upside:

  • $3,474 – The bullish gate, doubling as the Weekly VC PMI pivot and the 50% retracement of the recent decline.

  • $3,501–$3,535 – The full 360° Square of 9 rotation, signaling a potential full return to the cycle high zone.

These levels form a precise battle map — every move from here will either respect or violate these harmonic boundaries, and each break will have a clear directional implication.

3. The 360-Day Cycle Context

The primary 360-day cycle began in early October 2024 and is now entering its final 90-day phase. The projected high window sits between late August and early September.

  • The midpoint (180°) in April 2025 sparked a strong rally, confirming the upward cycle bias.

  • The 270° point in late June 2025 marked a corrective low and the start of the current advance.

Now, the Aug 13–16 period is essentially the springboard zone — the last harmonic pause before the yearly cycle makes its final push toward the projected high.

4. Forward Path Scenarios

Bullish Continuation (primary bias)

  1. Hold $3,381–$3,415 into Aug 13–16 time cluster.

  2. Break and hold above $3,428.

  3. Target $3,474 into the Aug 27 Gann window.

  4. Extend to $3,501–$3,535 into the Sept 4–5 cycle high.

Bearish Inversion (secondary bias)

  1. Close below $3,381 before Aug 16.

  2. Fall into $3,338 harmonic/cycle floor.

  3. Failure to reverse from $3,338 warns of cycle inversion, opening $3,300–$3,280.

5. Strategic Implications

This Aug 13–16 period is not just another trading week — it’s a high-compression inflection zone with the potential to dictate gold’s trajectory for the next 3–4 weeks.

  • Above $3,381/$3,338 support: The yearly cycle bias remains firmly bullish into late summer.

  • Below $3,338: The cycle projection flips to neutral or bearish.

Summary Insight

We are standing at the crossroads of time and price. The Gann dates, Square of 9 harmonics, and VC PMI pivots are speaking in unison: this is where the next big move begins. The chart makes it clear — the horizontal lines are the battlefield, and the vertical lines are the ticking clock. Once either side takes control, the path toward $3,535 or $3,338 will be swift and decisive.

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