Gold: Will the Glittering Rally Survive Trump’s High-Stakes Tariff Showdown?

Published 16/10/2025, 08:05
Updated 16/10/2025, 08:48

Gold Futures prices have soared to record highs. But a dramatic plot twist looms on the horizon. President Donald Trump is making headlines by hinting at a personal appearance before the Supreme Court on November 5, 2025. This is an unprecedented move in a case that could upend his entire protectionist trade agenda.

"If we don’t win that case, we will be a weakened, troubled, financial mess for many, many years to come," Trump warned.

This statement injects fresh uncertainty into global markets.

If he goes, Trump would apparently be the first sitting U.S. president to attend Supreme Court arguments.

Growing concerns over this new development on the tariff front could impact the recent move in gold prices. The tariffs case could determine the fate of the U.S. and extend hopes to its major trading partners. These partners have fueled the rally in gold prices with massive buying as they worry about the impact of the imposed tariffs on their economies.

The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on Nov. 5. Trump has requested that it overturn lower-court rulings. These courts found that a president does not have authority under the International Emergency Economic Power Act to impose the country-specific tariffs he implemented earlier this year.

Undoubtedly, if Trump loses this case in the Supreme Court, the tariff trade war will end immediately, and the U.S. administration will have to return all the tariffs collected till now to the countries that have already paid.

I anticipate that this development has triggered fresh hopes among the masses, facing a troublesome time due to the advent of tariff trade tussles since the beginning of Trump 2.0 on Jan. 20, 2025.

Gold Futures Daily Chart -  Zoomed View

On the other hand, gold futures could experience an advent of selling spree as the massive buying in gold by the global central banks is likely to calm down, even up to the final verdict by the Supreme Court, may it take some time, but if U.S. President Trump loses this case whole grim situation could take a U-turn next month.

On Thursday, gold futures rose to fresh highs in Asian trading, marking a fourth straight session of all-time highs, as rising expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions lifted demand for the safe-haven.

But, I find that despite testing a fresh high at $4254.80, gold futures have started to experience fresh selling pressure amid growing hopes on the end of tariff trade tensions at this level, exactly as I defined this limit in my last analysison Wednesday, while explaining the reasons and limit of this overly stretched rally in gold.

Technical Levels to Watch

Gold Futures Daily Chart - Gann Box And Gann Square Analysis

In a daily chart, gold futures look reluctant to enter the selling zone, defined by me at the immediate resistance at $4242, as on Thursday, despite an attempt to cross this resistance by testing the day’s high at $4254.80, have tested a low at $4218.64, and are currently trying to sustain at $4228.

If the gold futures move downward, immediate support will be at the 9 DMA at $4086, and the second support will be seen at the 20 DMA at $3937, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next significant support at the 50 DMA at $3693 before this week’s closing.

Inversely, if the gold futures try to test today’s high once again, big bears will load fresh shorts above $4242 with a stop loss at $4359.40 for a target at $3510 up to the end of this month.

Finally, I conclude that the currently prevailing sentiments while Trump’s comment signifies the importance of this Supreme Court hearing which could turn the whole concept of imposing tariff could surge indecisiveness among the bulls who are trying to remain in command amid growing expectations for more rate cuts till the end of this year while the technical formations looks evident enough for the advent of selling spree by the global central banks soon they found any further development on this case in Supreme Court.

I anticipate that the current scenario could generate last-minute hour-selling on Thursday and Friday could experience wobbly moves with bearish bias, and this week’s closing levels will provide a clear view of the prevailing sentiments, while gold has already lost its safe-haven potential above $3510.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.

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