Nvidia Q3 Earnings Preview: Numbers Turn the AI Boom Into Clear Focus

All eyes are on Nvidia (NVDA) as the AI chipmaker readies its fiscal Q3 results and guidance after the close, an upbeat report is widely viewed as critical to reviving the recently struggling AI stock trade.

Investors will focus on commentary about AI chip demand and product lifecycles, as well as China, while analysts warn margins may be squeezed by a complex production ramp-up.

Key Highlights

• Nvidia’s datacenter unit remains the core growth engine and is expected to drive most revenues. Analysts estimate it captures roughly half of all AI infrastructure spend, highlighting both its dominance and the risk of heavy dependence on a concentrated group of hyperscaler customers.
• Nvidia and Microsoft announced a multibillion-dollar strategic alliance with Anthropic, featuring up to $10B from Nvidia and $30B in Azure compute commitments powered by Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems.
• Recent signs point to strong momentum at Nvidia: TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said AI demand is “very strong,” and Jensen Huang reported “exceptionally strong” chip demand with visibility to over $500B in cumulative revenue through 2026 from Blackwell and Rubin—implying upside versus current Street forecasts.
• Investor focus has shifted to AI accounting. Skeptics like Michael Burry argue six-year GPU depreciation overstates useful life, implying higher future depreciation. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon counters that five-year-old A100s remain profitable, and GPUs can last 6–7 years. Clarity from Nvidia on product lifespans during the call would help.
• Brookfield Asset Management on Wednesday launched the Brookfield Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Fund (BAIIF), targeting $10 billion in equity commitments. It has already secured $5 billion from Brookfield, Nvidia, and the Kuwait Investment Authority.
• Investors are watching how major AI deals—such as Nvidia’s reported $100 billion investment in OpenAI and a $5 billion stake in Intel—might impact its balance sheet.
• Several major investors have pared back AI positions, fueling fears of an impending selloff. Peter Thiel’s hedge fund exited its entire Nvidia stake in Q3, as did SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son, though Son redirected proceeds into a large OpenAI bet.
• Options markets imply a huge ±7% post-earnings move in Nvidia about a $320B swing on its $4.4T market cap, the largest ever for a single-company report.

Analysts Expectation

• BNP Paribas Exane reiterated an Outperform on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and raised its price target to $250 from $240.
• Stifel raised its NVIDIA (NVDA) price target to $250 from $212 and maintained a Buy rating.
• DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating on NVIDIA (NVDA) with a $250 price target.

NVDA Q3 2025 earnings post-market (4:20 pm ET) Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Technical Analysis Perspective

• NVDA often trades within rectangles.
• Latest range (since June 2025): 155–185, with a spike to 212.20 in late October.
• Remained short of the 215 target, then sold off to 179 recently.
• Bull case: hold 185 post-earnings and rally toward 200+.
• Bear case: a decisive break below 185 targets the 171–164 daily gap.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

NVDA Seasonality Chart:

Since 2006, NVDA has seen November close with a 5.7% gain in 75% of years and December with a 2.4% gain in 58% of years.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.