Oracle Faces Investor Skepticism Despite $225B Revenue Target and Meta Deal

Oracle Corporation shares tumbled over 7% on Friday, October 17, 2025, despite announcing an ambitious long-term growth outlook and securing a major cloud computing deal with Meta Platforms at its AI World conference. The database software giant projected fiscal 2030 revenue of $225 billion and earnings per share of $21, representing compound annual growth rates of 31% and 28% respectively.

However, the stock declined from a previous close of $313.00 to $290.28 as of 11:49 AM EDT, as investors questioned the company’s ability to execute on these lofty targets amid significant capital expenditure requirements and concerns about near-term profitability.

Meta Deal Not Enough to Ease Market Concerns Over Spending

The primary factor behind Oracle’s stock decline was the company’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings per share targets, which came in below Wall Street expectations. Stifel analyst Brad Reback noted that the company’s FY26 and FY27 EPS targets of $8.00 and $10.65 respectively were “modestly below the Street’s expectations” as Oracle absorbs up-front scaling costs for its AI infrastructure buildout. This near-term earnings pressure overshadowed the company’s positive long-term outlook and the announcement of multiple mega AI deals, including the partnership with Meta Platforms.

Additionally, significant uncertainty remains around Oracle’s capital expenditure requirements to meet growing AI cloud demand. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill highlighted that “questions remain about Oracle’s capex requirements to meet growing demand” and raised concerns about the company’s financing options. Analysts project Oracle will have negative free cash flow totaling more than $26 billion over its next three fiscal years, and while the company raised $18 billion through a corporate bond sale last month, investors expect further debt financing will be necessary. This shift to a capital-intensive business model has altered the company’s margin profile, causing investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Valuation concerns also played a role in the stock’s decline. Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz, while acknowledging the strengthened confidence in Oracle’s growth potential, maintained a Hold rating citing valuation concerns. Despite the positive developments from the analyst day event, expectations were already high heading into the conference, with Oracle stock having rallied more than 85% year-to-date and nearly 30% since its fiscal Q1 report. As Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne noted, “Expectations were high coming into the event, which helps explain the somewhat muted reaction to the very strong outlook.”

High Expectations and Elevated Multiples Leave Stock Vulnerable

As of 11:49 AM EDT on October 17, 2025, Oracle stock was trading at $290.28, down $22.72 or 7.26% for the day. The stock opened at $303.75 and traded in a range of $287.50 to $304.28 during the session, with significant volume of 19.35 million shares. The market capitalization stood at $825.832 billion, with a 52-week range of $118.86 to $345.72, indicating the stock had been trading near its highs before Friday’s selloff.

Oracle’s valuation metrics reflect its premium positioning in the AI infrastructure market. The company trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 67.06 and a forward P/E of 42.19, with a PEG ratio of 2.30. The stock’s price-to-sales ratio stands at 14.09, while its enterprise value-to-revenue multiple is 15.55. These elevated multiples underscore investor expectations for continued strong growth, though they also leave the stock vulnerable to disappointment on execution.

Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Oracle stock, with:

1. 27 Buy ratings

2. 8 Hold ratings

3. 1 Sell recommendation

The average analyst price target of $336.62 suggests approximately 16% upside from current levels, though this represents a significant decline from the stock’s recent highs above $345. Despite Friday’s drop, Oracle has delivered exceptional returns over longer periods, with:

• Year-to-date gains: 75.57%

• One-year returns: 66.53%

• Five-year returns: 415.13%

These results substantially outperform the S&P 500’s respective returns of 12.63%, 13.40%, and 90.15% over the same periods.

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