Gold hits new record high as U.S. government shuts down
I must say that I am quite surprised by the September decline in consumer confidence, since consumer spending has been outpacing personal income in recent months. The Conference Board on Tuesday announced that its consumer confidence index declined in September to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August. This decline was largely due to the present situation component, which declined to 125.4 in September, down from 132.4 in August. Also notable is that the expectations component declined to 73.4 in September, down from 74.7 in August. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is now at the lowest level since April 2025. Clearly, consumers remain fickle.
A federal government shutdown is becoming increasingly likely, according to Vice President J.D. Vance. According to Vance, who spoke to the press, the primary impasse with Democratic Congressional leadership is associated with the healthcare benefits that have been removed for illegal aliens as well as lower-income citizens. In other words, Democratic Congressional leadership wants some of the tax reforms to be rolled back. This is not going to happen, so a federal government shutdown is becoming increasingly likely. I should add that President Trump is threatening to fire many federal workers in the event of a federal government shutdown, apparently in an attempt to scare Democratic Congressional leadership.
Despite the federal government shutdown risk, there is plenty of evidence of resurging U.S. economic growth. This week I am anticipating strong durable goods orders, improving ISM manufacturing and a good September payroll report (it will be postponed if there is a federal government shutdown). The Fed needs to keep lowering key interest rates to help the beleaguered housing industry and other interest rate sensitive sectors.
Currently, the U.S. economy is running at a 3.9% annual pace according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, but a 5% annual pace is likely in 2026 as all the onshoring efforts boost overall GDP growth. Thanks to the U.S. dollar getting its “mojo” back and the fact that we are importing deflation for China, I am not anticipating inflation to perk up, which should allow the Fed to continue to cut key interest rates. In other words, we are approaching “economic nirvana,” which is when the “velocity of money” perks up and prosperity rises.
This is setting the stage for a strong year-end rally. I am expecting the S&P 500 to surge 8% in the fourth quarter and stage an impressive year-end rally. I should add that the S&P 500’s earnings are growing at a faster pace than 8%, so my fourth quarter forecast is conservative. For 2026, I am expecting the S&P 500 to rise 18% as strong corporate earnings persist and we get some more Fed key interest rate cuts.