We are starting to see the strength triggered by Trump’s tariff reversal feed into weekly timeframes and improve the long-term forecasts for markets. Both the Semiconductor Index and Russell 2000 (IWM) have cleared declining channel resistance on fresh breakouts as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to shape V-reversal on weekly timeframes.
I like the action in Semiconductor Index. It was looking very indecisive during the second half of 2024, and when it broke south, it looked like bears were to have their day. Instead, buyers stepped into to defend the 200-week MA and the index hasn’t looked back since. Friday’s close above the downward channel should help the index challenge all-time highs before 2025 is out.
It was the same for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) as it cleared its downward (weekly) channel. The breakout was backed by volume accumulation, although technicals remain 50:50 between bulls and bears.
Focus for the Nasdaq can remain on the daily time frame as last week’s breakout holds, but we still wait for a new MACD trigger ’buy’.
The S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq with its late week breakout and is on course to challenge the ’bull trap’ at 6,100. And, as with the Nasdaq, it awaits a new ’buy’ signal in the MACD.
Honorable mention to Bitcoin that has broken clear from what looks to be a ’bull flag’ (or a larger cup-and-handle pattern) and while technicals still point bearish, they are improving. The next ’buy’ in the MACD could come on a nice one-day gain as triggers above the bullish zero line in this indicator are considered a ’strong buy’ signal.
So, as we head into the start of this week, bulls retain control and look to be expanding their reach into longer-term weekly timeframes.