U.S. stocks mixed ahead of Fed decision
If you’ve been riding silver’s uptrend, you’ve had the wind at your back for months. The metal keeps grinding higher, sentiment is warming, and headlines are finally catching on. Yet the closer you look at the charts, the more you see a classic “strong trend, tired engine” setup.
Price is still pressing forward; however, momentum is beginning to wane. That divergence matters. In my experience, when price pushes while momentum fades, the market is whispering, “cool off first, sprint later.” Put differently, the path of least resistance right now is a brief reset before the dominant uptrend tries to reassert itself.
With that in mind, let’s unpack what the 4-hour and daily charts are signaling, and why the September 17 FOMC meeting could be the catalyst that either flips the switch from pause to breakout or confirms a near-term pullback.
The 4-Hour Tell: Regular Bearish Divergence
Let’s start with the 4-hour chart. Since early September, silver has printed a sequence of higher highs; draw a trendline across those peaks and you’ll see a steady upslope. However, glance down at the MACD and a different pattern appears: both the MACD and its signal line are carving lower highs, and the histogram isn’t expanding on each push. Together, this variance represents a textbook regular bearish divergence where price forms higher peaks while momentum quietly rolls over.
In established uptrends, this usually signals fatigue, not failure. Buyers are still present, but each incremental high is doing less “work” under the hood. So, what would upgrade today’s warning into tomorrow’s confirmation? Two developments stand out:
- First, a bearish cross of the MACD below its signal with the histogram holding below zero, signaling that momentum has truly flipped.
- Second, a 4-hour close beneath the short-term rising trendline drawn under recent swing lows, showing price itself has ceded near-term control.
If we see either or both of those triggers, the 4-hour weakness will likely bleed into the daily structure, which is where the bigger story and the more consequential levels await.
Daily Chart: Ascending Channel, Resistance Test
Zooming out to the daily chart explains why the 4-hour divergence matters. Silver has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since Q2, repeatedly bouncing off the lower rail and climbing in an orderly fashion toward the upper rail. At the moment, price is pressing directly into that channel resistance.
Now, channel tops aren’t magical reversal zones; rather, they’re areas of supply where the risk/reward for fresh longs deteriorates unless buyers can force a decisive breakout. Typically, when price tags a channel ceiling, one of two things follows: a sideways consolidation or a mean-reversion drift toward the lower rail before the trend attempts another advance.
Put together, the daily chart sets a clear stage: either bulls punch through with authority, or price respects the channel and cools off. Given the 4-hour bearish divergence, the balance of probabilities leans toward the latter—for now.
The “Reset Zone” to Watch
Here’s where the pieces come together: confluence. On the daily chart, the ascending channel’s lower rail roughly aligns with the 50-day simple moving average, currently near ~$38. When a primary moving average tracks a structural support, it creates a level that markets tend to respect. That zone lets momentum indicators cycle lower while trend followers look for continuation entries with lower risk.
Against that backdrop, the 4-hour bearish divergence nudges the odds toward a visit to this neighborhood. A slide into $39–$38 wouldn’t break silver’s uptrend; if anything, it would preserve it. Think of it as the market pulling into the pit lane for fuel and fresh tires. And if buyers defend that zone with rising volume alongside a bullish MACD cross on the 4-hour chart, the probability of another leg higher increases meaningfully.
Catalyst on Deck: September 17 FOMC
All of this is taking shape right as we head into the September 17 Fed meeting. Silver’s macro drivers are well known—falling real yields, weakening dollar, and liquidity expectations—but with price already pressed against the channel’s ceiling, the FOMC’s tone can serve as the tiebreaker.
- If the tone skews dovish or guidance keeps easing hopes alive, momentum can re-accelerate, powering a decisive push through the channel top on the daily chart. That kind of breakout would invalidate the bearish divergence and open a fresh trend leg higher.
- If the tone is less dovish or leans hawkish, the divergence likely gets validated, prompting a pullback deeper into the channel and toward the $38 confluence. This will allow market participants to reset their positioning and reassess risk before the next attempt higher.
Either way, the FOMC is positioned to resolve the current tension: we either break out or retrace first.
Final Thoughts
Markets rarely move in straight lines, and silver is no exception. Taken together, the charts are delivering a clear, consistent message: the trend is up, but momentum is tired. That combination usually resolves with a brief reset that relieves pressure and rebuilds energy before the next push higher.
From here, the Fed becomes the swing factor. If policymakers give bulls the green light next week, the market may skip the reset and punch through the channel. If they don’t, a drift toward ~$38 shouldn’t be misread as trend failure; rather, it’s the kind of healthy pullback strong advances often require.
Overall, the bearish divergence is flagging near-term weakness, not signaling a top. Respect the channel, respect momentum, and let the post-FOMC tape clarify whether this rally takes the scenic route (pullback, then push) or the express lane (immediate breakout). Either way, the roadmap is well marked.