Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
The silver market continues to consolidate in a controlled distribution phase, emerging from last week’s high at 38.875 and rolling over into a calculated retracement. Friday’s high tested the outer boundary of the Daily Sell 2 zone before sellers methodically drove price lower. The low print of 37.515 on Monday aligned almost perfectly with the Daily Buy 2 and Weekly Buy 1 clusters, triggering the first signs of reversion.
From there, price attempted a measured recovery into the Weekly VC PMI at 38.06, but bullish momentum stalled in the shadow of the Daily Sell 1 level at 38.22. This rejection marked the day’s most telling price action — a sign that institutional sellers are using rallies into resistance to reestablish short exposure. The market now sits on the knife’s edge of the Daily VC PMI (37.87), a battleground where mean reversion bias meets the weight of broader distribution pressure.
Gann Time Cycle Perspective
Using Aug 5’s swing low as the cycle anchor, we enter an 8-day minor Gann cycle window on Aug 14–15. In Gann methodology, this period often represents a trend inflection point — not simply a directional forecast, but a moment when market conditions become ripe for a shift in control.
The prior Aug 5–Aug 8 rally lasted exactly 3 sessions before topping. If this rhythm continues, Aug 14’s AM session could see one final directional push, followed by a reversal later that day or into Aug 15. This timing symmetry suggests traders should be prepared for velocity and volatility expansion around this pivot window.
Square of 9 Harmonic Price Map
Anchoring from 38.00 as the active pivot, the Square of 9 reveals key harmonic alignments:
- Upside Harmonics: 38.44 → 38.88 → 39.36 → 40.18 (full 360° rotation from base)
- Downside Harmonics: 37.65 → 37.24 → 36.80 → 35.94
Notably, the 38.44 resistance is both a harmonic level and the Daily Sell 2 zone, creating a price confluence cluster that strengthens its importance. Similarly, 37.24 is a harmonic step and the Weekly Buy 1, forming a structural “magnet” should sellers regain control.
Scenario Mapping Into the Aug 14–15 Cycle Date
Bullish Reversal Scenario:
If price holds above 37.65 into the cycle date, a breakout through 38.22–38.44 could trigger a fast momentum run to 38.88, with extension to 39.36 if buy stops cascade. Cycle inversion could carry this into 40.18, marking a full Square of 9 rotation.
Bearish Reversal Scenario:
If price fails at or near 38.44 into Aug 14, watch for a hard break below 37.65, opening the path to 37.24 and, if cycle expansion accelerates, 35.94. This move would align with the typical 1–2 day “waterfall” structure that often follows a failed cycle high.
Tactical Implications
The coming 48 hours before Aug 14–15 are about position building, not chasing. Sideways action within 38.22–37.65 is effectively the market “loading the spring.” Once the time cycle hits, the market is poised for a decisive resolution, and traders can lean on the VC PMI levels and harmonic projections to define risk with precision.
Volume patterns show that liquidity providers are most active at pivot zones — meaning entries and exits will likely align cleanly with these predefined harmonic levels. The MACD’s current flat-to-negative tone confirms that the market is coiling, waiting for the time trigger rather than trending freely.
In summary: Silver is sitting in the center of a time-and-price confluence zone, with Aug 14–15 acting as the Gann cycle trigger. Price levels from the Square of 9 harmonics and VC PMI framework provide the map, while the Gann timing window provides the clock. The trader’s role now is to be ready to pull the trigger at the moment time and price intersect — whether that means leaning into a breakout or seizing a mean reversion setup.
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