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The junior silver miners ETF (SILJ) has officially transitioned from a decade-long accumulation structure into a confirmed breakout, positioning itself for a potential secular bull run. After years of base-building between $6 and $14, SILJ broke decisively above its 2022–2023 compression band, closing at $22.03 and aligning with the strongest volume surge since inception. This technical breakout signals institutional participation and validates the silver sector’s re-emergence as a strategic allocation.
VC PMI & Market Structure
The VC PMI mean reversion pivot now sits in the $18–19 range, which has flipped from resistance to support. The Buy 1/2 zones extend into $14–16, creating a strong accumulation band for any corrective cycles. On the upside, the Sell 1/2 zones project into $24–28, directly overlapping with the Square of 9 harmonic targets and historical resistance levels. This confluence strengthens the probability of SILJ testing higher resonance points within its new trend.
Time Cycle Convergence
The cyclical framework supports this bullish trajectory:
- 30-Day Cycle: Next projected test window is October 17–20, 2025, where tactical pullbacks may occur.
- 90-Day Cycle: Projects into December 2025, aligning with potential intermediate highs.
- 180-Day Cycle: Suggests a corrective phase in Q2 2026, after expansion into higher levels.
- 360-Day Cycle: Projects into September 2026, which may represent the culmination of this current expansionary phase.
These cycles reinforce the view that SILJ is in a powerful short-term escape velocity phase while also tracking toward a long-term cycle high.
Square of 9 Harmonics
Using $22.03 as the current pivot, key harmonics emerge:
- Resistance: $24.0 (2013 high), $28.8, $32.4.
- Support: $18.2 and $16.0, aligned with VC PMI buy zones.
These harmonic levels act as natural price attractors and reversal points, framing the probable trading ranges for both short-term and long-term positioning.
Conclusion
The SILJ breakout represents a secular shift in junior silver miners, driven by structural forces in the silver market and validated by technical, cyclical, and harmonic analysis. As long as SILJ holds $16 support, the probability favors an advance toward $24, followed by potential expansions to $28–32 over the next 12–18 months. For contrarian traders, this represents a historic inflection point where junior silver miners may once again outperform within the commodity cycle.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.