Silver Poised for Final Peak Before 360-Day Cycle Bottom

Silver is trading at $38.055, consolidating around equilibrium pivots after last week’s volatility between the $38.78 high and $37.515 low. The current structure is pressing against VC PMI mean zones and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($38.07), signaling a critical balance point.

VC PMI Alignment

• Daily VC PMI: $38.07 (neutral)
  
  
• Weekly VC PMI: $38.09 (neutral)

Resistance (Sell Zones):

• Daily Sell 1: $38.34
  
  
• Daily Sell 2: $38.58
  
  
• Weekly Sell 1: $38.67

Support (Buy Zones):

• Daily Buy 1: $37.79
  
  
• Daily Buy 2: $37.56
  
  
• Weekly Buy 1: $37.24

Interpretation: Price clustering around $38.07–$38.09 suggests balance. Breakouts above $38.34 confirm bullish momentum; closes under $37.79 confirm bearish reversion.

Gann 360-Day Cycle Progression

The anchor date for this cycle is September 28, 2024, marking a significant low. Gann’s 360-day cycle unfolds as follows:

• 90° (¼ cycle – ~Dec 28, 2024): Minor pivot – silver established a short-term low before rallying.
  
  
• 180° (½ cycle – ~Mar 28, 2025): Mid-cycle top – confirmed with corrective pressure into spring.
  
  
• 270° (¾ cycle – ~Jun 28, 2025): Secondary low – price reset before launching higher.
  
  
• 360° (full cycle – Sep 28, 2025): Projected major low and cycle completion.

Current Position: We are in the final quadrant (270° → 360°), historically a distribution and topping phase, where volatility expands before a cycle low. The August 28 cluster aligns with a projected final cycle top, giving way to a September decline into the 9/28/25 low.

Square of 9 & Harmonics

• Current balance near $38.07 aligns with a 61.8% retracement and a Square of 9 90° rotation from the $37.51 low.
  
  
• Upside harmonics project resistance at $38.58–$38.92, while downside harmonics converge at $37.56–$37.24.
  
  
• This geometric compression supports a sharp breakout window over the next 1–2 weeks.

Outlook & Probabilities

• Bullish Scenario (35% probability): Close above $38.34 → $38.58 could extend toward $38.92, marking a potential final rally peak into the August 28 cycle window.
  
  
• Neutral/Balanced Scenario (20% probability): Price continues coiling around $38.07 until cycle pressure resolves.
  
  
• Bearish Scenario (45% probability): A decisive break under $37.79 → $37.24 signals the decline phase into the September 28, 2025 cycle low.

Summary

Silver is locked in a critical time–price confluence:

• Price sits at major equilibrium ($38.07).
  
  
• Gann’s 360-day cycle indicates we are entering the final distribution phase, with an expected top near Aug 28, 2025, followed by a decline into a cycle low on Sep 28, 2025.
  
  
• Expect heightened volatility; traders should prepare for false breakouts and align positions with the dominant downward cycle bias as September approaches.

Here’s the 360-day Gann cycle projection for Silver Futures (/SI):

• Cycle Start: Sep 28, 2024 (anchored low)
  
  
• Quarter Cycle: Dec 28, 2024 – minor pivot/rally
  
  
• Half Cycle: Mar 28, 2025 – mid-cycle top, corrective pressure
  
  
• Three-Quarter Cycle: Jun 28, 2025 – secondary low
  
  
• Projected Top: Aug 28, 2025 – distribution/topping window
  
  
• Cycle Low: Sep 28, 2025 – full cycle completion

The green line marks today (Aug 18, 2025), placing us just before the projected final top into Aug 28, followed by a decline into the Sep 28 cycle low.

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