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Tesla Inc. saw a surge in EV demand last quarter as buyers rushed to claim expiring tax credits, but with those incentives now gone investor focus shifts to what comes next. The loss of the credit could dampen U.S. demand, which is important for Tesla, which earns nearly half its revenue from American customers. Tesla has responded by introducing lower-cost models, though they are pricier than some on Wall Street expected.
Management will emphasize AI and autonomy—covering Austin robotaxi progress and new Autopilot/robotaxi job postings in Colorado and Illinois. Investors also seek updates on CyberCab, RoboVan launches, and timing for a mass-market affordable EV.
Key Highlights
- Tesla successful Austin rollout of the robotaxi service marks the start of autonomous ride-hailing revenue, with plans to cover half the U.S. population by year-end 2025, a potentially transformative business opportunity.
- The company deployed a record 12.5 GWh of energy storage last quarter, up from 6.9 GWh in Q3 2024.
- FSD adoption has accelerated — penetration is up 25% since v12, and safety data indicate FSD-equipped Tesla vehicle are 10× safer than non-FSD vehicles. Optimus development is advancing, and the third‑generation design is finalized; production is slated to start in early 2026 and could scale to 100,000 units per month within five years.
- Regulatory-credit revenue is expected to fall sharply due to tightened emission standards, eliminating a previously high-margin income source. At the same time, rising global EV competition—especially from Chinese makers like BYD—is eroding Tesla’s market share and pressuring prices and margins.
Analysts Expectation
- Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an Overweight rating and $335 price target on Tesla. They noted Q3 deliveries of 497,099—well above the 443,079 consensus and 3Q24’s 462,890—driven by a pre-expiration rush for the $7,500 tax credit.
- Barclays kept Tesla (TSLA) at Equal Weight and raised its price target to $350 from $275.
- BNP Paribas initiated coverage of Tesla with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, implying about 29% downside. The bank said Tesla’s two AI-led ventures currently generate no revenue yet account for roughly 75% of its optimistic $1.02T base valuation, which is derived by discounting a bull-case DCF peak valuation of $2.7T by milestone probabilities. BNP warned that consensus 2026 estimates look too high and signaled an unfavorable risk/reward.
TSLA Q3 2025 earnings after-market (4:07 pm ET) Wednesday October 22, 2025
Option Statistics
Put/Call ratio suggests the following three scenarios:
- The put/call ratio ranges from 1.4719 to 1.0228 across the next four expiries, signaling option traders are leaning towards bearish outlook.
- The next two option positions are heavy on Puts.
- Weak earnings or guidance could spark a sharp sell‑off.
- Stronger‑than‑expected results and guidance would likely produce a gradual rally.
- Options flow shows large net positive gamma at the 450 strike and a smaller net negative gamma at the 417 strike for the Oct‑2025 to Jan- 2028 expiries.
Technical Analysis Perspective
- TSLA broke out of a 17-month triangle (Apr 2024–Sep 2025) in mid-September.
- The breakout produced a sharp upside price gap from $396 (Sep 8 close) to $423 (Sep 15), about $28.
- That gap typically should be filled before a sustained rally, though timing is uncertain.
- After peaking at $471 in late September, TSLA has been consolidating.
- The stock faces strong resistance in the $450–$490 range.
- Bull case: TSLA attempts to retest $450–$490 after earnings.
- Ideal near-term setup: a pullback into the $423–$395 area before choosing direction.
Weekly Candlestick Chart
NFLX Seasonality Chart:
Since 2010, TSLA has seen October close with a 2.3% gain in 31% of years and November with a 11.7% gain in 73% of years.
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