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The “fair value” estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield was basically unchanged in July, based on the average for three models run by CapitalSpectator.com. The market premium – the actual yield less the fair-value estimate — was also steady last month, holding a moderate spread.
The average fair-value estimate has remained in a tight range in recent months despite elevated concerns that tariffs could lift inflation. But as yesterday’s consumer price index data for July indicate, the appearance of tariff-related inflation was mixed.
“The tariffs are in the numbers, but they’re certainly not jumping out hair on fire at this point,” former Biden White House economist Jared Bernstein told CNBC.
The market premium for the 10-year yield has ranged from 50 to 80 basis points this year, according to monthly data. That’s a relatively modest spread vs. the temporary spike to 140 basis points in Oct. 2023. The current spread is 60 basis, effectively unchanged from June. The comparatively modest, stable spread of late suggests that the Treasury market, for now at least, is comfortable with the near-term economic outlook.
The potential for a higher market premium can’t be ruled out, however. Two factors that could alter sentiment in the near term: tariff-related inflation and federal government’s rising debt.
Although tariffs have yet to show clear evidence of lifting inflation, economists advise that the potential for hotter pricing is still lurking and will, in time, start showing up in the numbers.
“We expect [core inflation] will rise further to a peak of 3.8% by the end of the year as tariffs bleed through more fully to consumer prices,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The upside risks to inflation will keep the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee preferring to sit on the sidelines for a few more months.”
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department yesterday reported that the US government’s gross national debt rose above $37 trillion for the first time. The increase above that level marks a years-faster increase compared with the pre-pandemic forecast by the Congressional Budget Office.
A key question for bond investors: Will the Treasury market continue to take one or both of these risk factors in stride and maintain a relatively modest and stable yield premium? So far, that’s been the case, and the relative calm for this benchmark rate so far in August suggests more of the same for the immediate future.
The 10-year rate rose for a sixth straight trading session yesterday (Aug. 12), closing at 4.29%. That’s still at a level that’s near the low end of the range for the past several months, and so the market remains relatively calm and stable through mid-August.