US Dollar: Death Cross Looms but History Suggests a Reversal May Follow

Published 28/07/2025, 13:41
Updated 28/07/2025, 14:12
The US Dollar appears poised to undergo a death cross on the weekly chart, a development not observed since January 2021. A death cross is a technical indicator, typically considered bearish, that occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. It is generally viewed as a signal of further potential downside.However, it is worth noting that the last two weekly death crosses marked a bottom for the dollar index.Source: BarchartShorting the US Dollar Is Now Considered the Most Crowded TradeAccording to BofA’s July survey of 175 global fund managers overseeing $434 billion in assets, “short US dollar” has topped the list of the most crowded trades for the first time ever.“Long Magnificent 7” and “Long Gold” followed in the rankings.Source: Global Markets Investor, BofAAlphabet’s Q2 Results Exceeded Analysts’ ExpectationsOn Wednesday, {Alphabet} (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported Q2 revenue of $96.4 billion, representing a 14% year-on-year increase and surpassing consensus estimates by $2.5 billion.Revenues from the cloud division rose 32% year-on-year to $13.6 billion, with the segment’s operating margin climbing by 900 basis points compared to Q2 2024, reaching 21%.The overall operating margin remained in line with the previous year at 32%. Earnings per share stood at $2.31, 12 cents above analysts’ forecasts.Alphabet also raised its 2025 capital expenditures forecast to $85 billion, an increase of $10 billion since February, citing “strong and growing demand for our Cloud products and services”.Below is a segment-by-segment breakdown of Alphabet’s Q2 revenue.Source: The Future InvestorsThe S&P 500 Has Fallen by 85% in Bitcoin Terms Since 2020While the S&P 500 index has enjoyed a strong run since 2020, gaining 98% in dollar terms, its performance measured against Bitcoin tells a different story, showing a decline of 85% over the same period.Source: Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive, Opening Bell DailyBitcoin Ownership DistributionBelow is a breakdown of bitcoin ownership by category worldwide.Individuals remain the largest holders, owning 67% of the supply. Funds and ETFs account for 6.8%.Next are businesses, including treasury companies such as Strategy, which hold 5.5% of the supply.Governments possess only 1.5% of the supply.Lost Bitcoin is estimated to represent 7.5% of the total supply.It should be noted that only 5.2% of the total 21 million bitcoins remain to be mined.Source: RiverYields on Japanese Bonds Have Climbed to Multi-Year HighsJapan’s 10-year bond yields have surged to their highest level since 2008, driven by mounting fiscal concerns. The increase followed President Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Japan. It seems that Japan may be absorbing part of the cost of US car tariffs by deploying its own investment funds, effectively providing a partial bailout to facilitate the agreement.Additionally, on Wednesday, Japan’s 40-year bond auction recorded its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio declined to 2.127, while yields rose sharply to a record 3.375%.Source: Bloomberg

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