What Betting Markets Say About Inflation, Growth, and the Fed’s Next Move

Published 28/10/2025, 12:41
Updated 28/10/2025, 12:42

As the government shutdown drags on, the data drought follows, which makes betting markets all the more useful for gauging sentiment on the macro outlook. Here’s a quick look at how bettors are pricing expectations for several indicators and scenarios, starting with guesstimates for US consumer inflation in October, a report that may or may not see the light of day via the usual channels in Washington.

Although the current estimates are the main attraction, the history of how the bets have evolved is telling as well, providing a top-down guesstimate of where the crowd is headed.

Inflation in October? (CPI YoY)

CPI YoY

When will the Government shutdown end?

Govt Shutdown

Fed decision in October?

Fed Decision in Oct

US GDP growth in 2025?

US GDP Growth in 2025

Unemployment rate in October?

Unemployment Rate in October

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Gold Price Chart

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