ING Economic and Financial Analysis

We expect today’s US payrolls to be at 110k, below the 138k consensus but, in our view, not low enough to trigger concerns about employment by either investors or the Fed. The dollar’s recovery trend...

US equities have now erased almost 90% of their losses seen in the aftermath of 'Liberation Day'. The mood music on trade has improved slightly, and a US-Ukraine minerals deal helps, too. The next...

Crude oil extended its fall in the early trading session today as broader market concerns have weighed on the complex, while the latest inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API)...

Consensus has shifted to -0.1% QoQ annualised for today's 1Q US GDP print following a wider than expected trade deficit for March. Details of the report, especially on consumer spending, will be...

Oil prices extended their declines this morning on a clouding demand outlook amid ongoing US tariff uncertainties and OPEC+ plans to increase output. Energy – Oil Slides on Weakening Demand...

Crude oil ticked up slightly this morning as the market remains cautious amid the developing situation over trade talks between the US and China. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices continue to...

The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds fairly dovish, with some even speculating over 50bp of rate cuts. Concerns over inflation seem to have largely evaporated, and...

Financial markets are ending the week a little calmer. Traded US equity volatility has dropped back to 'Liberation Day' levels and some modest gains in global stock markets have seen the US dollar...

Scott Bessent and President Trump have delivered two consecutive days of positive headlines for US assets and the US dollar – from de-escalations with China, to a less aggressive stance on the Fed,...

Growing disagreements between OPEC+ members have oil sitting out the broader risk-on move seen across financial markets as tariff tensions ease. Energy – OPEC+ Struggles While a risk-on move lifted...

The US dollar is enjoying some support thanks to a recovery in US market sentiment. At the moment, no other G10 currency has a higher beta than the dollar to US trade news, and Treasury Secretary...

Risk assets staged a recovery yesterday amid growing hopes for a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions. President Donald Trump also eased concerns that he might fire Federal Reserve Chair...

The US dollar is facing renewed pressure on Fed independence fears, which threaten one of the foundations of the dollar’s value as a reserve currency. Downside risks have increased for USD, even...

Gold prices surged to fresh highs amid concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s independence. Oil and other risk assets, however, are under pressure amid heightened global uncertainty Metals -- Gold...

At the press conference following the 25bp rate cut decision, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed an increased sense of urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions and increased...

A hawkish Powell failed to lift the US dollar yesterday, as the currency market remains heavily focused on risk asset relative performance. EUR/USD remains in a prime position to benefit from the...