ING Economic and Financial Analysis

ICE has decided again not to include the EU bonds in its sovereign indices, sending EU speads wider. In the broader context EU bonds are still part of a considerable smaller AAA-universe since the...

Sterling liquidity conditions have remained broadly stable since the start of this year. A likely slowdown of QT and a strong uptake of liquidity facilities limit the draining of bank reserves. Money...

Liquidity circumstances are ample currently, but bank reserves are primed to fall in the coming months, likely re-tightening conditions. There is value in market repo versus the Fed's reverse repo...

The European Central Bank (ECB) easing cycle could end soon, which has helped bring down volatility of some money market spreads. The balance sheet continues to shrink, and while still a long...

Yesterday’s summit in Washington resulted in a clearer roadmap for peace talks and some openness about security guarantees from the US. But the euro was offered as news flowed, perhaps on the view...

US Treasuries traded heavily on Monday, on a day of complexities and different crosswinds that make interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good, safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can...

Oil prices are lower this morning following Trump-Zelensky talks, with focus now turning to a possible meeting between the Ukrainian leader and Russian President Putin Energy – Oil Markets Look Ahead...

Despite the Western press describing Friday’s meeting as a ’failure’, financial markets are continuing to trade like there could be some – still undetermined – path to peace. Benign conditions look...

Oil opened lower this morning amid reduced concerns over tougher sanctions against Russia following the Trump-Putin summitEnergyIt’s unsurprising to see oil trading lower this morning following...

In our latest live webinar, our team followed up this week’s all-important inflation release by sharing their thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut trajectory, the consensus in...

Today’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska could be a turning point for the Ukraine conflict. But that might not deliver the kind of seismic impact on the US dollar that macroeconomic data has of...

A sharp plunge in industrial production data suggests that the initial signs of an inventory cycle turn were mainly driven by US frontloading rather than a genuine cyclical recovery. Industrial...

US Secretary Bessent said the Fed should cut by 50bp in September, and that rates are 150-175bp above where they should be. Markets aren’t considering a 50bp move as an option, and we doubt they...

Thursday likely sees US PPI core inflation back up to 3%, while core CPI inflation was confirmed earlier this week at 3.1%. In all probability these inflation rates will be on the rise in the coming...

US core inflation accelerated to 0.3% MoM in July, but markets don’t think that is enough to prevent a September Fed cut. That paves the way to more US Dollar weakness, although some caution may...

Despite some short-term supportive factors for the market, oil prices continue to edge lower ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting Energy – OPEC Sees Tighter Oil Market in 2026 Oil prices continued...