ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that...

Energy markets remain well supported. ICE Brent is holding above US$90/bbl as the market tightens, whilst extended maintenance in Norway has supported European gas pricesEnergy - Middle Distillate...

We rationalize why US longer tenor rates are rising – basically, the curve is inverted and getting used to discounting structurally higher rates. If so, reversion to a normal curve must mean...

The oil market had largely expected the Saudis and Russians to extend supply cuts. What was unexpected was extending these cuts through until year-endEnergy – Saudi Extends CutsThe oil market...

If the beleaguered euro and yen did not have enough to worry about already, they now have to cope with Brent oil trading above $90/bl as the Saudis extend their supply cuts through to year-end. Unless...

Higher interest rates and a stagnant economy keep bank lending on a weakening trend. Annual growth in broad money growth is now negative. This adds to expectations of a weak eurozone economy in the...

European natural gas prices rallied yesterday as the threat of strike action in the Australian LNG industry grew. This is after unions served a strike notice to Chevron (NYSE:CVX).Energy – A...

The ECB hawks have stepped in to revive depressed rate expectations, but markets are opting for data dependency, and EUR/USD is set to face two key risk events with eurozone inflation figures before...

The oil market continues to face headwinds, both on the macro front and on the back of expectations of supply increases. Meanwhile, the natural gas market could see further volatility over the coming...

While the People's Bank of China continues its battle to keep the USD/CNY under 7.30, markets will take a close look at PMIs today. The main focus will be on the eurozone – Germany in particular...

Oil edged higher yesterday following some good US macro data. However, this data also increases the likelihood of further rate hikes. And the expectation of further hikes will ultimately provide...

Another day brings another set of data to support further Fed tightening. That should be the main story with the release of US personal income data and the core PCE deflator for May. Barring a data...

The Federal Reserve leaves US interest rates unchanged but signals more hikes are on the cards with some hawkish projections for the economy. July is a 'live' meeting, according to Powell, but a...

The European Central Bank continues its hiking cycle and shows no sign of pausing any time soon.One month ahead of the first anniversary of what has become the ECB’s most aggressive tightening...

It was a mixed set of data for the oil market yesterday. The IEA report was fairly neutral with both supply and demand growth estimates increasing by 0.2MMbbls/d. The weekly report from the EIA was...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...