ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Central banks just love to cut rates in gradual, 25 basis-point chunks, don't they? Nobody knows why. And frankly, it doesn’t always make much sense, writes James Smith. Should the ECB cut rates next...

Retail sales and jobless claims were better than expected yesterday, offering more support for a hawkish rethink of Federal Reserve rate cuts. We expect the residual 14bp priced in for September to...

Firmer retail sales and subdued jobless claims numbers suggest the Fed will keep rates on hold for now as officials assess the impact of tariffs on inflation June Retail Sales Gains Amidst Consumer...

Oil prices firmed yesterday despite a recovery in the US Dollar amid waning concern that President Donald Trump may remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from his position. Some fairly...

With the June decision to cut the main policy interest rate to 2%, the ECB thought it was in a ‘good place’, hoping for some typical wait-and-see monetary policy over the coming months. We had also...

We saw an interesting experiment played out on Wednesday as the market seemed to genuinely believe that Fed Chair Powell was about to be removed. We continue to identify this as a low probability...

Yesterday’s US inflation failed to validate dovish bets on the Fed and triggered a bounce in the oversold US dollar. We see more room for hawkish repricing in the coming weeks, and accordingly,...

A slightly softer-than-expected June core inflation reading keeps alive the chances of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut, but the risk is that we get less benign prints for July and...

Passing the new budget through the French parliament may prove difficult and generate more rate volatility. EGB spreads look tight given defence spending ambitions. US Treasury yields decide to test...

Oil prices edged lower yesterday, with a stronger US Dollar providing headwinds for the market Energy- OPEC Output Rises The oil market continued to edge lower yesterday, with a stronger US dollar...

Since reaching a record high above $3,500/oz in April, the gold rally has stalled, and is in need of a fresh catalyst to help push it higher Gold Consolidates Source: Refinitiv, ING Research But...

A significant increase in pharmaceutical production has caused another rebound in eurozone production. While production is volatile given US frontloading, second quarter GDP may turn out not quite as...

All eyes are on the US June CPI release at 1430 CET today. Will this year's increase in US tariffs finally start to show up in headline inflation and push back against calls for early Fed cuts? That...

Oil prices fell yesterday despite President Trump threatening 100% secondary tariffs on Russia, a clear sign that the market isn’t buying his threats. Energy – The Oil Market Doesn’t Buy the...

Having gapped 0.3% lower in Asia on news of a potential 30% US tariff on EU imports, EUR/USD is now barely 20 pips down on Friday's close. These kinds of threats seem typical as President Trump tries...

The oil market is holding firm despite tariff developments. Instead, the market appears focused on uncertainty around President Trump’s scheduled “major statement” related to Russia. Energy – Oil...