ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Inflation was broadly in line with expectations as tariffs continue to be largely absorbed within US corporate profit margins. This gives the Fed the room to respond to the weaker jobs backdrop and...

We expect a 0.4% month-on-month core CPI print in the US today, above the 0.3% consensus. That should offer the US dollar support, but we don’t think that will prompt markets to seriously price out a...

We think both US CPI inflation and the US fiscal deficit can come in higher than expected, with the latter most meaningful. Brewing trouble here for Treasuries. In the eurozone, the 2Y euro swap rate...

We expect the FX market to remain predominantly driven by data, and continue to treat expectations about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine with caution ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. We expect...

Oil prices are under pressure this morning with Presidents Trump and Putin set to meet later this week. Meanwhile, Trump failed to impose stricter sanctions on Russia despite his deadline for a...

After the Bank of England's unprecedented split vote this week, James Smith asks: why can't central banks just make their minds up on rate cuts? Interest rate expectations are set for a volatile...

There's so much unfinished business surrounding tariffs and the trade war. Luckily, Carsten Brzeski can make sense of where we are and what it means for the world right now. And read more of...

The same day President Trump installed an (interim) dovish ally in the FOMC, the Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone, narrowly voting in favour of another 25bp rate cut. The US calendar is...

Oil prices settled lower yesterday amid growing hopes that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet to discuss a Russia-Ukraine peace deal Energy – Potential Trump-Putin Meeting ICE Brent settled almost...

Three tailed US auctions in a row now, and a 2bp tail on the 30yr is a big price miss - a message that the US curve should be higher and steeper. A hawkish cut by the Bank of England is a good...

Potential US Fed rate cuts, along with continued central bank buying and ETF inflows, could send Gold to fresh highs. And that's why we're changing our forecast. The Gold Price This Year After...

US President Donald Trump appears to be advancing efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine truce. Markets are pricing in cautious optimism: oil, dollar, and the Swiss franc all came under pressure. CHF...

Oil prices have not reacted to President Trump slapping an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil, possibly believing there's still room for negotiation The Potential Impact...

Sterling markets remain sensitive to US dynamics and risk pricing in a too dovish path of easing by the Bank of England. Any tweaks to the pace or composition of quantitative tightening would not...

We're changing our call on the Fed. The pressure to cut rates is intensifying as the US jobs market and the growth story are no longer looking quite so solid. While prices will rise due to tariffs,...

'Tariff' may be the most beautiful word in Donald Trump's dictionary. And while tariffs will continue to dominate headlines for the rest of the year, let me introduce my economic term of the summer:...