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A full-scale war involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel would send ripples through financial markets and introduce significant volatility. While the potential for conflict poses substantial risks to...
The Fed left rates and the pace of QT unchanged as expected in Wednesday’s meeting. Powell’s opening statement was updated to reflect that uncertainty about the economic outlook has “diminished but...
Markets stepped back once more, but not in any capacity to suggest fear is rising, but more a general complacency as to where the markets will go next. I would view this as bullish in the long...
The S&P 500 fell by more than 80 bps yesterday, driven by weak economic data this morning and growing geopolitical uncertainty. The rising wedge continues to unfold as expected, and just as...
When fear rises, blog traffic climbs, but when traders get complacent, readership falls. The good news is that markets have lots of workable support. Starting with the Russell 2000 (IWM), markets...
Yesterday was quiet overall following the morning volatility crash, with no new developments in the Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, making it relatively easy for IV to drop sharply. Mostly, it...
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear...
Risk/Reward Favors Patience I am traveling this weekend, so we are producing our weekly report a day early. As such, some charts using end-of-week data are using either Thursday or mid-Friday prices....
Israel is in the middle of the Middle East. Iran has been threatening Israel's existence since it overthrew the Shah of Iran in February 1979. There has been a covert war between the two since then....
Markets sold off on Friday following headlines about increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Obviously, I was unaware of these events when writing on Thursday. This underscores why understanding...
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